Tropical Depression Two, our erstwhile “proto-Ana,” is dead (or at least dormant; regeneration remains possible), and Tropical Depression Three — the new “proto-Ana” hotness — has yet to be born. For now, Three-to-Be is just “Invest 90L,” a mere tropical wave. But the National Hurricane Center thinks that will change soon:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Alan Sullivan writes: “Models continue to make a major Atlantic hurricane of this system and direct it along a course that could threaten the NE Caribbean first, then the Bahamas and the East Coast. We shall see.” Indeed we shall. For now, as I said yesterday, such early projections are about as reliable as preseason predictions of a Florida-Texas BCS title game.
FLHurricane.com has more, as does Dr. Jeff Masters.
P.S. For those keeping score at home, the first named storm of the 1992 hurricane season — infamous Andrew — earned its name on August 17. To find a later “A” storm formation date, you have to go back to 1984, when Tropical Storm Arthur formed on August 29. But it looks likely that 2009 will probably sneak in under 1992’s wire. Today is Friday, August 14. If we don’t have an “Ana” by Monday, I’ll be pretty surprised.