College football season is almost underway — the first games are on Thursday, and opening Saturday is one week from today — and it could be a banner year for that favorite Brendan Loy hobby-horse, the mid-majors’ endless quixotic struggle to “bust the BCS.” In the wake of Utah’s virtuoso performance last January vs. the OMG-It’s-A-War conference’s runner-up, Alabama, and their resulting #2 ranking in the final polls, the little guys are getting more respect heading into the season than ever before. The preseason coaches‘ and sportswriters‘ polls each have four — count ’em, four! — non-BCS-conference teams in the Top 25: Boise State (#16/14), TCU (#17), Utah (#18/19), and BYU (#24/20).
That quartet of teams has thus already taken the first step toward BCS glory, one that usually eludes mid-majors until midseason, when they’re belatedly elevated into the ranks of the elite because so many power-conference teams have played their way down the rankings. This year, it’s different: the Broncos, Horned Frogs, Utes and Mormons Cougars have an unprecedentedly good starting position to begin the BCS race. It’s not a “head start,” but it’s closer to a level playing field than we usually see. These teams don’t have to start 8-0 just to get into the conversation.
So… what does this mean? I think it means we can realistically talk about whether one of these teams could make a national championship run.
Preseason articles about mid-majors usually focus on the question, “Can they earn a BCS bowl berth?” But the answer to that question is an obvious “yes,” for all four teams. In fact, just about anybody can earn a BCS berth if they go undefeated, provided there aren’t any other non-BCS teams ahead of them. Take last year’s Ball State squad — if they’d beaten Buffalo in the MAC title game, and thereby finished 13-0, they would have been ranked high enough to go BCS bowling. The only thing that would have stopped them? Utah, Boise State and possibly TCU would have been ranked higher. But if they’d been the highest-ranked mid-major, their undefeated record against a weak schedule in an unheralded conference would have been enough. Bottom line, the system is now set up in such a way that the highest-ranked undefeated non-BCS team, from whatever conference, with whatever schedule (cough cough, Hawaii ’07), will get a BCS berth, unless they finish behind a one- or two-loss non-BCS team that’s better respected, in which case that team will get the berth. So there’s really no use wasting our time wondering whether there will be a BCS buster this year. Yes, there will, unless nobody goes undefeated and the Mountain West really cannibalizes itself.
The far more interesting question is, can one of the Big Four — Boise State, TCU, Utah or BYU — rise by season’s end, not just into the BCS Top 14, but into the BCS Top 2, and thus earn a spot in the national championship game? In past years, this has been a pipe dream (albeit one that I’ve occasionally blogged about at length, notwithstanding its unlikeliness), but this season, because of these teams’ starting positions in the polls, it’s actually a legitimate possibility, if things break just right.
Let’s break it down team by team.
NOTE: Each of the following write-ups assumes that the team in question goes undefeated, since that is obviously a prerequisite for any mid-major team to get in the national championship conversation. It also assumes that there is no more than one undefeated team from the major conferences at season’s end, since, fairly or not, an unbeaten BCS team is pretty much always going to trump an unbeaten non-BCS team.* Anyway…
Utah probably has the best chance, because of residual good will from last season. If last year’s #2 team, which received 16 first-place votes in the AP poll (and one contract-breaching, first-place protest vote in the coaches’ poll), goes undefeated again, can they really be denied? Unfortunately, the set-up isn’t perfect, because their schedule isn’t quite as good as BYU’s for making a national-title case. But they do play at Oregon, and they host Louisville, and they’re at both TCU and BYU in the season’s final four weeks. That latter sequence is a huge help, though they’ll need both of their Mountain West rivals to have good seasons, so those games don’t lose their luster. Ideally, they want TCU to come in with one loss (to BYU), and BYU to come in undefeated. It also would be enormously helpful to the Utes if, after they beat Oregon, the Ducks proceed to upset USC and win the Pac-10. Likewise, if Louisville is at least respectable in the Big East, that would be a big help. But I think Utah’s fate will be largely controlled by how much the respect they earned last season carries over in voters’ minds to this season. My gut feeling: if Utah goes undefeated, they will finish ahead of anyone except an undefeated BCS team or a one-loss SEC or Big 12 champion, or possibly a one-loss USC (unless that loss is to Oregon). And they might even beat those one-loss candidates, and/or an undefeated Big East champ. I could even see an honest-to-goodness debate if they’re up against an undefeated Big Ten team without a marquee nonconference win. The only teams that an undefeated Utah squad is virtually guaranteed to finish behind would be an unbeaten champion of the SEC, Big 12, Pac-10 or ACC.
BYU has history, as the only non-BCS team ever to win a national title, albeit in the pre-BCS era. More importantly, they’ve got the best schedule to make a case with voters, thanks to their opener against Oklahoma and their game two weeks later against Florida State. They also, of course, play TCU and Utah (both at home). But they have the weakest starting position, at #24 in the coaches’ poll. The big, huge, honking question is how much of a jump they make if they beat OU and FSU in the season’s first three weeks. Do they rise to #15? #10? #5? I would assume, given the magnitude of those wins, that they’d be ranked somewhere around #10 if they get to 3-0 (they’ve got Tulane sandwiched in between the Sooners and Seminoles). After that, it’s just a matter of trying to rise into the Top 3 or 4 by attrition (and by beating TCU in late October), then defeating a hopefully-undefeated Utah in the massively hyped season finale, and using those four big wins (OU, FSU, TCU, Utah) to make a case with voters that they belong in the Top 2. To make that case, it will be crucial that Oklahoma and Florida State have good seasons, justifying their preseason rankings and the hype that will have accompanied BYU’s wins over them. Ideally, the Sooners would win the Big 12 and the Seminoles would win the ACC. If an undefeated Utah, with wins over two major-conference champions, is competing for a spot in the BCS title game against a bunch of one-loss teams, I don’t see how they can be denied. On the other hand, if OU and FSU each proceed to tank their seasons after losing to BYU, and if TCU and Utah lose enough games that BYU’s wins over them become less “marquee,” the Cougars could easily go undefeated yet finish behind any one-loss BCS conference champs, and maybe even a two-loss SEC or Big 12 champ. It all depends on how well their schedule holds up.
TCU doesn’t have the brand recognition of Utah or BYU, but they’re getting a good deal of respect from voters (second only to Boise State in the preseason rankings), and they have a decent schedule to make a case, with early games at Virginia and Clemson, and of course @BYU and Utah on tap. Unfortunately, I’m not sure “we won at Virginia and Clemson!” is going to carry the day in a national title discussion, as opposed to a BCS bowl discussion. Maybe if the Cavaliers or Tigers win the ACC, but otherwise, those teams just don’t have the cachet of an Oklahoma or a Florida State, or even an Oregon. I suspect TCU’s fate, in terms of any BCS title game hopes, depends more on their conference. It would be a tremendous help if both BYU and Utah come into their matchups with TCU undefeated, both because that would make those wins intrinsically bigger, and also because it would mean the Horned Frogs would have the opportunity to beat a pair of teams that would themselves have beaten Oklahoma, Florida State and Oregon. I realize there is no transitive property of college football, but still, if the Cougars and Utes have such high-profile victims on their resumés, beating them would go a long way toward establishing TCU’s bona fides. In sum, TCU’s best hope is probably to ride the strength of an extremely strong overall performance by the Mountain West Conference, and emerge as the undefeated champion of that conference, with wins over a couple of respectable BCS teams to boot. If that happens, I think they could make it into the Top 2 over any one-loss teams, with the possible exception, again, of one-loss SEC or Big 12 champs. If the Mountain West is less strong than expected, and/or Virginia and Clemson end up having bad seasons, TCU’s chances will diminish.
Boise State is the highest-ranked of the Big Four at present, but probably has the smallest chance of reaching the national title game if they go unbeaten, thanks to their schedule. Because the Broncos play in the WAC, rather than the Mountain West, they’re both more likely to finish undefeated than the teams listed above, and less likely to impress anyone by doing so. Boise has only one marquee game, and it happens very early — this coming Thursday, in fact. Oregon at Boise State is the nightcap of football season’s opening night on ESPN, so we’ll find out very early on if the Broncos remain in the conversation. Beat the Ducks, and I imagine #16/14 Boise will rise to somewhere around #10 in the polls. Unfortunately, they’ve got nothing on their schedule after Oregon that will grab anyone’s attention (unless perhaps Nevada upsets Notre Dame in the opener, thus putting itself on the national radar, then beats Missouri on September 25, and proceeds to have an excellent season, arriving at Boise with an 11-0 or 10-1 record, thus turning the Broncos-Wolf Pack showdown on the Friday after Thanksgiving into a marquee game). My gut tells me an early-September home win over Oregon just doesn’t carry enough weight with the East Coast Biased Media 🙂 to elevate an undefeated WAC team, even one that beat Oklahoma three years ago in the Greatest Game EverTM, into title-game discussion. If they go unbeaten, they’ll certainly be in the Top 5 heading into the bowls. But Top 2? I doubt it. That said, there are two scenarios where I can see Boise State getting to the title game. One is a crazy season like 2007-08, where everybody else has two losses. (In that sort of scenario, any of these teams have an excellent shot.) The other is if Oregon runs the table after losing to Boise, wins the Pac-10, finishes 11-1, and gets itself into the title-game discussion. An undefeated Boise State team obviously should, and I think would, stay ahead of a one-loss Oregon team that it beat. So if Oregon is in the mix based on its resume (which would, in this scenario, include wins over Utah, Cal and USC), Boise State will get to come along for the ride. Otherwise, though, I think even an undefeated Broncos squad may well be relegated to another Fiesta Bowl berth or something similar.
So there you have it. I think each of the Mountain West’s trio of contenders has a better chance of reaching the national title game, if they can run the table, than any mid-major team in the history of the BCS. It’s not likely to happen, but it’s not a crazy pipe dream, either. Just imagine if both BYU and Utah make it to their season finale undefeated! That could become an effective national semifinal game. Wouldn’t that be something? Boise State, too, has a better shot than in any prior year in its history, though I still think it’s a fairly small chance, given the likelihood of Oregon having a typically Oregon-like, 9-3 or 8-4-ish season. Anyway… here’s hoping one of these teams makes a run. It’d be a hell of a story.
*There are some conceivable cases where an undefeated mid-major could finish ahead of an undefeated BCS team. The most obvious would be if the undefeated team is an unheralded Big East squad without a particularly impressive non-conference schedule. Another candidate would be a team from the Big Ten or ACC with an incredibly nonconference weak schedule — a team like Penn State, for instance. But I suspect that, in the end, a big-name/awful-schedule team like the Nittany Lions would, however unfairly, pretty much automatically finish ahead of an undefeated mid-major squad.
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These teams should win. Unfortunately, as was proven when the pollsters promoted a two-loss LSU team to the championship game, the combatants of the championship game are mostly determined by who other people think should be in the championship game.
So your question once again comes down to respect, and they won’t get it from the people who matter. They could run the table and still not make the conversation because the pollsters would rather have, as one easy example, an undefeated Big XII team against a one-loss SEC team. Hell, if the SEC team is Florida, they may make the title game with two losses. They will make up a reason: the schedule, the marquee players on the biggest stage, the potential TV ratings for more “name” schools, whatever they have to do to sleep at night.
(Ironically enough, I think Notre Dame, of all schools, faces the same problem. Not that I think they will go undefeated this year — only Lou Holtz is that delusional — but if they do, I don’t think their schedule has enough heft to impress the people who always accuse ND of having a soft schedule, and they will not jump over a 12-1 Florida team with the Automatic Rubber-Stamp Of Authentic Awesomeness from Having Won The Strongest Conference In America.)
I wish I had your optimism, Brendan, I really do. However, I’m largely in the same camp as Mike. With everything I’ve seen since the BCS Era began, I cannot envision the Gatekeepers of College Football ever allowing someone from outside their ranks to compete for a national championship.
I have no faith in the college football intelligentsia to give these non-BCS teams a fair shake instead of holding them to a higher standard than their big-conference counterparts. Just listen to the opinion-makers on ESPN, or take a look at this:
http://www.gousfbulls.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=7700&ATCLID=204781595
Jim Leavitt would rather vote four Big East teams (including his) in the Top 25 than BYU or Boise State, and I doubt he’s alone in his opinion of non-BCS teams.
It will be a day for celebration when a non-BCS team gets into the Mythical National Championship Game, make no mistake. However, I’m of the opinion it will happen as part of a playoff rather than under the current format.