Will USC-ND be a battle of ranked teams?

From the “blatantly and unwisely looking ahead” files… after tomorrow’s games against Cal and Washington, respectively, USC and Notre Dame both have bye weeks before their October 17 clash in South Bend. This got me thinking: if the Trojans and Irish both win tomorrow, could ND earn a spot in the Top 25 in time to turn their rivalry game with ‘SC into a battle of ranked teams, thus cueing the hype machine, waking up the echoes and so forth?

To answer the question, you’ve got to look at the teams currently ranked ahead of the Irish in the polls, specifically the AP poll, which is the one that’s more widely used in the media when talking about upcoming games. For simplicity’s sake, I’m going to assume that the Top 13 — i.e., the top-tier unbeatens* plus Virginia Tech, USC, Oklahoma and Ohio State — will stay in the Top 25 even with a single loss in the next two weeks. Likewise, I’m assuming that anyone ranked #14-25 is liable to drop out of the rankings with a loss. These are crude assumptions, but I suspect they’re mostly correct.

So… who might lose, and tumble out of the polls, making way for the Irish?

• #14 Oklahoma State is idle this week, then at Texas A&M next week. But if the Aggies win, their undefeated record suddenly looks more legit, and they might leapfrog the Irish even as the Cowboys fall behind ’em. Then again, they’re getting zero votes right now, so maybe not. Let’s call the Cowboys a potential tumbler in the polls, but keep in mind that A&M might conceivably take their spot.

• #15 Penn State is at Illinois tomorrow. So they, too, are a potential tumbler. (Then they play some high school team next week. So it’s this week or nothin’.)

• #16 Oregon plays Wazzu, apparently the Pac-10’s designated Bounce-Back-From-A-Big-Loss** whipping boys, so that’s a guaranteed win tomorrow for the Ducks. But next week, they’re at unbeaten UCLA. (Or perhaps once-beaten UCLA, if Stanford has its way tomorrow.) Unfortunately, this creates the same problem as the Oklahoma State/A&M thing. Unless the Bruins have lost to Stanford in the mean time, the winner of the UCLA-Oregon game will almost certainly be ranked no matter what, while the loser will be unranked. (And if the Bruins lose to Stanford, Stanford could easily ranked by the time Oregon drops out of the picture.) So I don’t see the Irish gaining any ground here.

**Obviously, this makes no sense. I was thinking of Cal. Oregon is coming off a big win, not a big loss. I’m an idiot. Regardless, the Ducks will destroy the Cougars.

• #17 Miami hosts Oklahoma tomorrow. Lose, and they’re gone. Likely tumbler.

• #18 Kansas is idle this week, then hosts Iowa State next week. Unlikely but possible that they’d lose. Potential tumbler.

• #19 Georgia hosts LSU, then is at Tennessee. The overrated Bulldogs are very likely to be unranked by the 17th. (Moreover, if they’re not, it’s entirely possible that LSU will be, since consecutive losses by the #4-ranked Tigers to Georgia and Florida would certainly put them out of the rankings.) Likely tumbler.

• #20 BYU has Utah State tonight — not gonna happen — and then is at UNLV next weekend. Another “unlikely but possible.” Potential tumbler.

• #21 Ole Miss is another team that’s highly likely to be out of the picture in two weeks. They visit Vanderbilt tomorrow, then host #3 Alabama next week. Likely tumbler.

• #22 Michigan is a bit of a problem. They’re at Sparty, then at Iowa. I don’t think they win both of those. (Though, if they do, they’re a Top 10 team.) But if they only win one, that’s probably not enough, because Michigan beat Notre Dame, and the AP voters (unlike the coaches) have been pretty good about respecting head-to-head results between teams with the same numbers of losses. Michigan might have to lose to both MSU and Iowa to free up their spot for the Irish. So, for these purposes, instead of a “likely” tumbler, I’m going to designate them only as a: Potential tumbler.

• #23 Nebraska is idle, then at Missouri. This is another one of those situations were somebody will emerge ranked. Missouri is currently first in “others receiving votes.” No dice.

• #24 Cal hosts USC. Buh-bye. Likely tumbler.

• #25 Georgia Tech has road games at improving Mississippi State and inconsistent Florida State. They could win both, but because they’re on the road, I’m saying: Likely tumbler.

I count five “likely” tumblers and five “potential” tumblers. A bit more vaguely, I’d say it’s a safe bet that somewhere between 3 and 7 spots in the Top 25 will open up in the next two weeks. So, what are the odds the Irish claim one of ’em?

Well, there are seven unranked teams currently ahead of Notre Dame in the “others receiving votes” category: Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina, South Florida, UCLA, Utah and Wisconsin. As mentioned above, though, Missouri will either take Nebraska’s spot or fall behind ND, so they’re a non-factor. Same goes for UCLA vis a vis Oregon.

That leaves exactly 5 teams effectively standing in ND’s way: Auburn, South Carolina, South Florida, Utah and Wisconsin. And it’s quite likely there will be a couple of losses from that group, too. (Wisconsin, for instance, is at Minnesota and Ohio State, while Auburn is at Tennessee and Arkansas.)

Even allowing for the possibility of a Texas A&M or Stanford (or whomever) sneaking up from behind the Irish, we’re probably looking at 3 to 5 teams ahead of ’em, with 3 to 7 spots in the rankings likely to open up above them. Those are decent odds.

All things considered, I’d say there is a better than 50/50 chance that Notre Dame will be ranked in the AP Top 25 when they play USC in two weeks, if the Irish beat Washington tomorrow.

GOOO IRISH!!! BEEEAT HUSKIES!!!

*The “top-tier unbeatens” are Florida, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Boise State, Cincinnati, TCU, Houston and Iowa. The other unbeatens are #18 Kansas, #22 Michigan, and unranked Missouri, Texas A&M, South Florida, Wisconsin, Auburn and UCLA.

UPDATE: In comments, Mike Marchand looks more closely at the poll numbers, and says the Irish will “absolutely not” be ranked:

It’s not just how many teams separate Notre Dame from the top 25. Right now the Irish have just 7 points in the AP poll, and they’re all from one guy. The #25 team has 185.

He’s got an excellent point. However, I don’t think it necessarily follows that “ND would have to win by 100 to get that much respect in that short a time.” A team doesn’t necessarily need a ton of “respect” to be ranked #25. They just need enough losses around them that they rise by attrition. Teams in that #14-25 range are going to fall in the rankings if they lose — rightly or wrongly, the pollsters never just leave a team in place after a loss — which means somebody has to rise up to take their place. If enough teams slip up, I still think it’s very realistic that Notre Dame could be one of those “somebodies.”