The BCS pecking order Top 25

The headline today among poll-watchers is that Alabama has passed Texas for the #2 spot in the AP poll, which means that the SEC — which, if you hadn’t heard, is a war — now holds the top two spots. But really, who cares? Florida and Alabama can’t both go undefeated; if they both win out, they have to play in the SEC title game. So Texas is still effectively #2 in the BCS pecking order. Win and they’re in.

To dramatize this point, I thought it might be helpful to make up some actual rankings for the “BCS pecking order.” (CAVEAT: I’m ignoring computers, and assuming that the pollsters’ Top 2 will go to the title game. This is usually true under the current formula, but in a very close call, might not be the case.)

Here goes:

1. Undefeated SEC champion (Florida or Alabama)
2. Undefeated Big 12 champion (Texas or Kansas)
3. Undefeated Iowa

That’s the easy part. After that, it gets progressively more complicated. But here’s my best guess…

4. One-loss SEC champion Florida, Alabama or LSU
5. One-loss Big 12 champion Texas
6. One-loss SEC champion Auburn or South Carolina

That’s all still fairly straightforward, and basically means I think the SEC and Texas are in the catbird seat over USC, Virginia Tech, etc., even with a loss. Obviously that could change, especially if the loss is lopsided or late in the season. That’s particularly true in Texas’s case. Also note we’re only talking about a Big 12 champion one-loss Texas team; if their one loss prevents them from winning the division, as a loss in the Red River Shootout next Saturday very well might, they’d be much lower in the pecking order (like, #19; see below). Voters like conference champions.

7. One-loss ACC champion Virginia Tech (if Alabama finishes with 1 loss, but is not the other title-game participant)
8. One-loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma State
9. One-loss ACC champion Virginia Tech (if Alabama loses a couple of games late in the season, thus diminishing the “quality” of VaTech’s one loss somewhat) or Miami
10. Undefeated Big East champion (Cincinnati or South Florida)
11. One-loss Pac-10 champion USC

Numbers 7 through 11 are really crucial — if Texas and Iowa lose, it’s quite likely the cut line will fall somewhere in here — and they’re all very tightly packed together. How voters would treat an undefeated Big East champion is especially hard to predict, but note that Cincy is already ranked pretty highly, and South Florida hosts Miami on November 28, so that’s helpful in their efforts to make a late push in the rankings (assuming they first beat Cincy on Thursday). I think they squeak by USC because of the awfulness of USC’s one loss, to a Washington team that’s likely to finish .500 or below, but don’t beat out potential one-loss teams with perceived stronger resumes, like VaTech or Okie State or Miami (or Texas or any SEC team).

Also note the odd contradiction of Virginia Tech’s situation: I think they need to hope for Alabama to do well, but not too well, because if Alabama is the other team in the title game, poll voters will move heaven and earth to avoid a rematch. On the other hand, if the Tide falter late in the season, VaTech sees its trump-card argument against teams like USC (“your one loss was to Washington; our one loss was to the number [whatever] team in the country, Alabama”) lose some of its luster.

12. One-loss Big 12 champion Kansas, Nebraska or Missouri
13. One-loss Notre Dame
14. Undefeated Boise State, if and only if Oregon wins out and thus occupies the spot immediately below
15. One-loss Pac-10 champion Oregon
16. One-loss Big Ten champion Ohio State
17. One-loss ACC champion Virginia Tech (if Alabama is their title-game opponent; voters will want to avoid a rematch in this scenario) or Georgia Tech

Numbers 12 through 15 are all pretty unlikely scenarios, but hey, you never know. Boise’s appearance here is due to the possible “Oregon coattail effect” I’ve discussed before. If the Broncos are in direct competition with the Ducks for the final spot, how can the voters justify keeping Boise out?

Meanwhile, I may be overestimating the VaTech “rematch effect” here, but I really think it would kill the Hokies’ case if Bama is the opponent. Of course, other teams could also potentially face rematch problems (Ohio State, for instance, if all hell breaks loose and USC ascends to #1 by season’s end), but VaTech’s is by far the most likely.

18. Undefeated TCU
19. One-loss Texas that didn’t win its division
20. One-loss SEC team that didn’t win its division
21. One-loss Big Ten champion Wisconsin, Penn State or Iowa
22. Undefeated Boise State (barring Oregon scenario referenced above)
23. Two-loss SEC champion
24. Two-loss Big 12 champion
25. One-loss Big East champion

Call me crazy, but I think undefeated TCU gets in over the various undesirable one-loss possibilities ranked #19-21: non-division champs from the SEC or Big 12 (if it’s Texas, in the latter case), or a Big Ten champ not named Ohio State. I don’t think Boise State does, though. But I do think the Broncos beat out any two-loss team, or a one-loss Big East team.

I should add that #19 and #20 are almost meaningless because it would really depend on the specific situation. I wanted to address this possibility somehow, but it’s very hard to say where teams in this situation actually fit. Could be a little higher, could be much lower.

Anyway, I think I covered all the relevant possible scenarios here. Let me know if you think I missed something.