Looking at this week’s college football schedule, there are, needless to say, some fairly huge games. There’s the small matter of the Brendan Loy Game of the Year between #6 USC and #25 Notre Dame, of course. But there’s a heckuva lot beyond that, too.
Things actually get started tonight with Boise State at Tulsa, and ramp up further tomorrow with a battle of the Big East’s remaining unbeatens, Cincinnati at South Florida. I’m not sure what’s the preferred outcome of that game for fans of other BCS contenders, like USC. #8 Cincy seems like more of a BCS threat because they’re ranked higher right now, but #21 South Florida would jump up the polls quickly with a win, and they’ve got a November 28 date with Miami that could help them do some last-minute “leapfrogging” of one-loss teams, if they stay unbeaten. So really, root for whomever, then root for the winner to lose in a subsequent game. As for Boise State, root against them, I guess, just to keep things from getting messy — though really, I don’t think they finish ahead of one-loss USC no matter what. (Whether that’s just or unjust is another post for another day.)
On Saturday, the BCS-dictated rooting interests for USC fans are more clear-cut. To wit:
Oklahoma vs. Texas, 10am MDT: This is the second-biggest game of the day for USC fans (the biggest being, obviously, the one in South Bend). With a win here, Texas looks to have relatively smooth sailing toward an undefeated season, particularly in light of the Dez Bryant situation at Okie State. Lose, on the other hand, and Texas no longer even controls its own destiny in the Big 12 South; the Longhorns would be forced to root for Oklahoma to lose at least once, maybe twice. USC fans would then become, for the rest of the season, the biggest OU fans this side of Norman, since the two-loss Sooners would have the power to prevent one-loss Texas from going to the Big 12 title game — again! — simply by winning out. I don’t see either a two-loss Oklahoma or a one-loss non-division-champion Texas from edging out one-loss Pac-10 champion USC in the BCS standings. But first, Oklahoma needs to win on Saturday. GO SOONERS.
Iowa at Wisconsin, 10am MDT: Third-biggest game of the day for Trojan fans. The Hawkeyes are undefeated and therefore need to lose, and this is one of just two remaining games on their schedule where a defeat looks like a reasonable bet. GO BADGERS.
USC at Notre Dame, 1:30pm MDT: Um, yeah, FIGHT ON TROJANS, BEAT THE IRISH. Duh.
Arkansas at Florida, 1:30pm MDT: Given the way things have gone so far, I don’t have a lot of hope for the SEC not producing one of the two title-game participants (which is why I’m so focused on getting Texas and Iowa out of the way). But if it’s going to happen, we need to start seeing contenders, like Florida, losing to non-contenders, like Arkansas. And that needs to start happening soon. GO RAZORBACKS.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4pm MDT: Both of these teams are one-loss ACC contenders, but VaTech is by far the bigger BCS threat. So, root for VT in this one, then root for GT to lose sometime later in the season. GO YELLOW JACKETS.
Kansas at Colorado, 5pm MDT: I’m pretty sure the Jayhawks will lose at some point. I’m also pretty sure this is not that point. However, as long as KU remains undefeated, they are technically a BCS threat, so we should root against them. GO BUFFALOES.
Miami (FL) at Central Florida, 5:30pm MDT: I’m not sure who would win a BCS rankings battle between USC and Miami if both teams win their conference championships and finish with one loss, but I’d rather not find out. GO KNIGHTS.
South Carolina at Alabama, 5:45pm MDT: Same deal as the Florida-Arkansas game, above. Gotta root for these SEC contenders to lose, even if it’s starting to seem like a lost cause at this point. Time for the SEC to live up to its reputation as a war! GO GAMECOCKS.
Missouri at Oklahoma State, 7:15pm MDT: As with Miami, I’m not sure who would win out if it’s one-loss Big 12 champ Okie State vs. one-loss Pac-10 champ USC battling for the final spot. But it’s certainly better if the Cowboys have two losses before they get their shot at Texas. Missouri also has one loss, but if you put a gun to my head, I’d rather see a one-loss Big 12 champ from the North than from the South. Also, if Oklahoma defeated Texas earlier in the day, an Okie State loss here would increase the chances that it’ll take two OU losses, rather than just one (because of potential three-way tie scenarios), to get one-loss Texas into the Big 12 title game. So, GO TIGERS.
Washington at Arizona State, 8:15 pm MDT: I keep saying “one-loss Pac-10 champ USC,” but the Trojans actually don’t control their own destiny in the Pac-10 right now. They will if Washington loses this game (or some other game, at some point before the season is over). And that’s important, because USC wants to have an outright conference championship in its pocket in case of a BCS fight with a one-loss non-champion from the SEC, Big 12 or even ACC. So… GO SUN DEVILS. (Sorry, David.)
P.S. Ken Stern makes a good point in comments:
Assuming USC wins out, I want to see Washington lose only once the rest of the year so that the the team that beat USC would have the best possible record. (That can be critical as to how the computers value USC if it comes down to narrow differences) So with Washington still having upcoming games with Oregon State, Cal and Oregon (also UCLA and Wazzou)…I’d rather have them beat Arizona State this week and take my chances on them losing one of the other games later in the season.
Ken’s right that an 8-4 Washington, as opposed to 6-6 or worse (as seems likely), is far better for USC — not just in the computers, but also in the eyes of the human pollsters, who may well be comparing the Trojans to a team like Virginia Tech (only loss to Alabama) or, say, a one-loss Texas (only loss to…Oklahoma?) or Alabama (only loss to…LSU? Auburn?) in determining who gets the final spot. “Quality of loss” will certainly come into play in humans’ minds, as well as computers’ calculations. So, whether you root for UW to lose Saturday, then win out, or root for them to win Saturday, then lose at some future date, is up to you, but the ideal scenario is definitely for Washington to go 5-1 the rest of the way.
One point to consider: all other things being equal, it would be better for Washington to lose its fourth game early, then win out late, so the Huskies can potentially be ranked by season’s end (so that people won’t be able to say, when comparing the Trojans to other BCS contenders, that “USC’s only loss was to an unranked team”). If you look at prior years, an 8-4 team can definitely be ranked — and one with Washington’s toughest-in-the-nation schedule should be ranked — but if they lose in November, as opposed to October, it’s less likely to happen. (A win over ASU, followed by a loss next week to Oregon, followed by four straight wins over UCLA, Oregon State, Wazzu and Cal, would fit the bill.)
Assuming USC wins out, I want to see Washington lose only once the rest of the year so that the the team that beat USC would have the best possible record. (That can be critical as to how the computers value USC if it comes down to narrow differences) So with Washington still having upcoming games with Oregon State, Cal and Oregon (also UCLA and Wazzou)…I’d rather have them beat Arizona State this week and take my chances on them losing one of the other games later in the season.
That’s a good point. I also thought of that after writing this post. I might integrate your comment as a P.S. to the post. 🙂
Of course I am not at all comfortable with predicting that USC will win the rest of its games this year….even with a victory over ND on Saturday.
Agreed. Indeed, before the game against Cal, I’m on record as saying that a 3-2 record in the @Cal, @ND, vs. Oregon State, @Oregon, @ASU stretch would not be unreasonable. Turns out Cal is terrible, but 2-2 in the next four games is by no means out of the realm of possibility, and 3-1 would arguably be an accomplishment. 4-0, while not a miracle, is also certainly not something we can take for granted.