Trojans win, but stay put in BCS pecking order

Well, USC held off Oregon State, 42-36. The Trojans are now 6-1 heading into a Top 10 showdown with Oregon next week. That’s the good news.

The bad news? First of all, USC’s defense has apparently vanished. Perhaps it’s floating in a balloon somewhere, or hiding in an attic. But one week after allowing ND’s Jimmy Clausen to go 24-of-43 for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, the Trojans allowed OSU’s Sean Canfield (who?!) to go 30-of-43 for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns! Total yards surrendered by USC the last two weeks combined: 849. WTF? At this rate, Oregon may hang 70 points on us next week!

The even worse news? Iowa survived Michigan State, winning on a 4th-and-goal touchdown as time expired. Texas routed Missouri. Cincinnati rolled over Louisville. Alabama and Florida both survived scares.

All of which means the BCS pecking order is unchanged. The Trojans are still stuck behind the SEC champion (undefeated or one-loss), Texas, and — regardless of what the present rankings say — Iowa and probably Cincinnati (though a USC-Cincy debate would be interesting). Because the SEC is now very unlikely to produce a two-loss champion, we need the Longhorns, Hawkeyes and Bearcats to lose. So far, it’s not happening.

The one BCS bright spot: Miami, which I had at #9 in the pecking order, lost to Clemson. So that’s one less team the Trojans need to worry about nipping at their heels in the rankings, if they win out. The only real threats from “below” — i.e., aside from the SEC champ, undefeated Texas, undefeated Iowa and undefeated Cincinnati — are a one-loss Big 12 champ (Texas or Okie State) and a one-loss, SEC West runner-up Alabama (the all-SEC nightmare scenario). I think USC gets in ahead of those teams, but I’m not sure. By contrast, I just can’t see TCU, Boise State, Georgia Tech or the SEC title-game loser threatening USC’s standing in the BCS.

Unfortunately, barring a last-minute SEC cataclysm, none of that matters unless the Hawkeyes, Longhorns and Bearcats all lose. And in Iowa’s case, they’re running out of opportunities to lose. Somehow, I don’t think home games against Indiana and Northwestern the next two weeks will pose much of a challenge. That leaves the trip Ohio State on November 14, followed by the season-finale rivalry game against Minnesota at home on November 21. It may all come down to Hawkeyes-Buckeyes. Meanwhile, next week’s Texas at Oklahoma State game is now huge, absolutely huge.

After the jump, remaining schedules for the three teams USC fans need to root against, plus a fully updated pecking order, sans commentary.

IOWA
October 31: vs. Indiana
November 7: vs. Northwestern
November 14: at Ohio State
November 21: vs. Minnesota

TEXAS
October 31: at Oklahoma State
November 7: vs. Central Florida
November 14: at Baylor
November 21: vs. Kansas
November 26: at Texas A&M
December 5: Big 12 title game (vs. Kansas State?!?)

CINCINNATI
October 31: at Syracuse
November 7: vs. UConn
November 13: vs. West Virginia
November 27: vs. Illinois
December 5: at Pittsburgh

UPDATED BCS PECKING ORDER:
1. Undefeated Florida/Alabama
2. Undefeated Texas
3. Undefeated Iowa
4. One-loss SEC champion Florida/Alabama/LSU
5. Undefeated Cincinnati
6. One-loss USC
7. One-loss SEC West runner-up Alabama (w/ loss to LSU)
8. One-loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma State/Texas*
9. Undefeated Boise State, if Oregon wins out
10. One-loss Oregon
11. One-loss Georgia Tech
12. Undefeated TCU
13. One-loss SEC title-game loser (the “rematch” scenario)
14. Undefeated Boise State, if Oregon doesn’t win out
15. One-loss Big 12 South runner-up Texas*
16. Two-loss SEC champion
17. One-loss Big Ten champion (Iowa or Penn State)
18. Two-loss ACC champion Virginia Tech
19. One-loss Big East champion (Cincy, Pitt or WVU)

*NOTE: If Oklahoma State beats Texas, then loses to Oklahoma, we have a repeat of the dreaded three-way tie in the Big 12 South being decided by BCS rankings — and this time, Texas would probably benefit, finishing ahead of a team (the Cowboys) that it lost to. Thus, Texas could lose to OSU but win the division, and potentially the conference, and end up filling slot #8 in the pecking order. Alternatively, Texas could beat OSU, then lose to, say, Baylor, and become a one-loss champ that way (though they’d be in a weaker poll position in that case, possibly behind Boise/Oregon/GT/TCU). As for Texas as a one-loss divisional runner-up (#15 in the pecking order), that’s the scenario wherein OSU beats Texas and wins the division, but then loses in the Big 12 title game, leaving Texas as the most viable title contender from the Big 12. Only in a 2007-like apocalypse would Texas be a BCS factor in that scenario, though.