17 thoughts on “Twitter: Headline of the …”

  1. Joe Loy

    Waw haw haw. 🙂 Yeah.

    Foolishly, following Senator Joe’s 2006 10-point triumph (49.7% to 39.7%) under the Connecticut For Lieberman ballot-banner, his People promptly abandoned their newly-minted Minor Party — declining to dispute its blatant Hijacking by a merry band of ContraLiebermaniacs who had laid Claim to the Name by filing their alleged Rules for the future governance of Connecticut For Lieberman as the Anti-Lieberman party.

    This preposterous prank could very likely have been overturned in court, had only there been a Plaintiff who cared. / But No. From their lofty perch on the Heights of Joe-mentum, the victors would not deign to descend into such mucken mire.

    Now, not unpredictably, the bold buccaneers of the CT-for-Joe-against-Joe are themselves engaged in a mighty sea-battle between the pirates who Just Hate Joe and the corsairs who Prettymuch Dislike Joe but also wouldn’t mind helping the Republican bilge-rats sink the Good Ship Dodd next year, before dealing with Capting Joe’s Filibuster Privateers in 2012. / Oh the Broadsides are something Fierce. Arrrr. ;}

    If Lieberman runs again, it’ll have to be via the Republican nomination (which will probably be welcomingly Available) or under yet a new new-party banner, i.e. again with the Petitions, oy :). He’s not gonna get the Democratic convention endorsement again (as Incumbent Dem he won it by an unflattering 2-1 last time), let Alone win the D Primary as a Challenger. Yes, Saint Joe’s semi-demi-DemDays are Numbered now. The writing — and for any hardcore Bluedogs-for-Joe, the wailing — is on the wall: Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin.

  3. Joe Loy

    And Now, on a juuust-Barely-tangentially-related note, my Political Prognostication of the day:

    Waaay Upstate New York is about to elect a CPNY Congressman. (Nowadays that stands for Conservative-Party-of, for those of you who may still Thirst for the Thirties when the CP in NY meant something Else altogether, comrades. 🙂

    Yes, contrary to the popular Cablenewsies wisdom until Lately, the Battle of NY CD 23 in the War for the Soul of the Republican Party is not going to end in the victory of the Democrat due to the split in the Republican vote between the moderate-to-liberal R nominee and the palinisto Rogue-rightist C candidate. Rather, it’s going to produce a narrow win for Conservative Doug Hoffman due to the split in the centrist-to-leftie vote between Democrat Bill Owens and (in distant 3rd place) Republican Dede Scozzafava.

    Whether this means the Beast the Teapartiers ;> will have taken Possession (so to Speak 😉 of the Republican Soul, thus inaugurating the Endtimes, I dunno. But it does mean that the now middle-aged (not to say, medieval 🙂 CPNY will have won its first-ever very-own United States Representative (not counting crossendorsed Republicans because, well, because that Doesn’t Count :).

    But not its first-ever Member of Congress, which U.S. Senators of course Are. Indeed, 1970 is the Template – albeit writ larger, Statewide – for next Tuesday’s far-northern-NY Armageddon. (See esp. the first 2 paragraphs under the linked subheading.)

    Sigh. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

    (PS: Brendan — if Owens wins, delete this comment. 🙂

    (PPS: if Scozzafava wins, eat my Hat for me, willya? I’m still a bit Queasy from The Bug. ;}

  4. Joe Loy

    OK: re NY CD 23, above – Nevermind. 🙂

    a href=”http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/ny-23-goper-scozzafava-suspends-campaign.php?ref=mp”>Republican Dede Scozzafava has suspended her campaign. Accordingly, I hereby Revise my Prediction, as follows. Democrat Bill Owens will win.

    Scozzafava’s name will remain on the ballot; but presumably most, or at least Plenty, of her dwindling band of supporters will accept her legally-meaningless but still very Gracious dispensation, to wit (emphasis added :), “…I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so.” (She did not Endorse anybody.)

    The new Siena Poll shows Owens 36%, Hoffman 35%, and Scozzafava 20%. Two weeks ago Owens was at 33%, Scozzafava 29%, Hoffman 23%. At the beginning of October Scozzafava was at 35%, from which she has now dropped 15 points.

    I.e., the moderate-to-liberal Sozzafava is down to her natural core constituency: moderate Republicans. With his influx of Bigtime national-GOP endorsements & money, the surging Hoffman has already peeled off the Bulk of the Movement-conservative Republican votes that he’s going to Get. The majority of those faithful Scozzafavorers ;} who do now take Dede up on her kind invitation ” to transfer their support as they see fit”, will See Fit to switch to the moderate-to-conservative Democrat Owens. This should be enough to bring him a close victory.

    Note: the latest poll shows that Scozzafava’s current supporters — the hardcore 20% — rate Owens (D) unfavorably by a 19-50 ratio — and take an even dimmer view of Hoffman, thumbs Down 15-57 .

    It’s gonna be Owens I tell ye. 🙂

  9. gahrie

    The poll I saw asked about both a three man and a two man race. Hoffman led in both, but was farther ahead in a 3 man race.

  10. Joe Mama

    The only polling I’ve seen so far that was taken after Scozzafava dropped out (or on the day she dropped out) is PPP, which covers 10/31-11/1 and has Hoffman ahead by 17 points. I don’t know how the polling was conducted so I don’t know how reliable it is, but PPP has traditionally been a Democratic outfit you can’t claim their results are ideologically biased.

  11. Brendan Loy

    I’d want to see 11/1-11/2 or even 11/2-11/3 before lending any polling much credence. 10/31 was the day Scozzafava dropped out (and the day before she endorsed Owens), so people had had no time to process those events. It was also a Saturday, and Halloween to boot, both of which have to alter the response pool significantly. Likewise 11/1, a Sunday, and the day of the enforsement. And of course today, a Monday, is the day before the election, so we’re about running out of useful polling time. The reality is, the real-world margin of error is HUGE in assessing this race. I’m not claiming bias; my thinking is more along the lines of Nate Silver’s:

    [T]he utterly fascinating special election in NY-23 has become nearly impossible to forecast. Special elections, with their low turnout, are intrinsically pretty difficult to predict. So are multi-candidate races. And certainly, races where there are substantial late-breaking developments — such as the Republican candidate dropping out four days before the election and endorsing her Democratic rival — present especial difficulties for forecasters. Here, you have all three of those circumstances, producing a perfect storm of uncertainty. Not only will I not be surprised if either Democrat Bill Owens or Conservative Doug Hoffman wins on Tuesday — I will not be surprised if one of them wins by a substantial, possibly even double-digit margin.

  12. Brendan Loy

    P.S. There’s also a possibility of a “Reverse Limbaugh Effect,” if you will. I gather there’s a lot of talk among Democrats that a Hoffman win would embolden conservative purists to further purge the GOP of moderates, to the electoral benefit of the Dems. I don’t share this thinking, because I think such a “purge” — and the resulting possible ascendancy of Sarah Palin types — would be bad for the country, and I care more about the trajectory of the nation than the short-term electoral fortunes of either political party. (This is why I would never vote for Sarah Palin in a GOP primary, and in fact might very well switch parties to vote against her, even though I think she’s totally unelectable in a general election and thus her nomination would ensure Obama’s re-election, because I don’t want her getting anywhere near the White House, and indeed I think even her candidacy would be bad for the country.)

    However, there are some Dems/liberals who think this way. So it’s conceivable that some liberals might vote for Hoffman to produce this very result. The vast majority of NY-23 voters will NOT do this, of course, but it’s not impossible that a small percentage might, and in a low-turnout special election, could swing a close result. Unlikely but possible.

  13. Jazz

    In politics momentum is everything, which is why a bunch of farmers in Iowa receive unbelievable dispensation in exchange for caucus participation. Seems to me something ominous may be looming based on the outcome of NY-23.

    Is the Presidency unwinnable for Palin in 2012? Is the economic recovery real? Per dcl, no one really knows, but there’s a school of thought that the stimulus is artificially re-lining the pockets of millions of average Americans who used to work for the UAW and now work at Target. This is an iteration of Mike Marchand’s “bubbles, not the champagne” meme, and if its correct, Bubbles the Clown could beat Obama in 2012 (so surely even Palin could).

    The inevitable polarization that will follow a Palin presidency could be an unmitigated disaster for this nation. Palin’s candidacy will no doubt be buttressed by the “These Colors Don’t Run” hillbilly evangelical crowd, and though she will blow them lots of kisses and show some leg here and there, its hard to see what material things she has to offer that group beyond sexiness and prayers.

    Perhaps worse is what will happen to the polarizing Democrats. Some will argue they go communist. I say: worse than that. They complete their transition to limousine liberals. Tempted already to forget their labor, unionist roots, they will completely forgo the same as their former political base flocks to Palin’s sexy gams and the power of prayer.

    And we will be left with one party (the Republicans) which will ostensibly represent the formerly great working class American, with little more to offer than prayers and promises and sexy calendars, and the other (the Democrats) washing their hands of those folks.

    And formerly consumerist America will follow the formerly strong working/(consumer) class into the sunset.

  14. Joe Loy

    “Let me declaim that the utterly fascinating special election in NY-23 has become nearly impossible to forecast. “ ~Nate Silver

    Oh, cabbage-&-spinach. :} Here:

    Owens: 51.3%
    Hoffnan: 44.4%
    Scozzafava: 4.3%

    There. ;>

    Incidentally, the official ballot will list:

    Democratic – Owens
    Republican – Scozzafava
    Independence – Scozzafava
    Conservative – Hoffman
    Working Families – Owens

    Here’s the District. (Full disclosure: I have Been to Plattsburgh. 🙂

  16. Joe Loy

    Silver, Schmilver. I Stand by my Forecast as I have Forecasted it. :}

    (Just when was it, Brendan, that we had to start saying “forecasted”, anyway? Back in My day Sonny, we used to say “Last night They forecast sunshine for today and just look at all this rain wouldya, ahhh They don’t know what They’re talkin’ about.” And while I’m at it, just who the hell are Th…nyaah, nevermind that one…if I went fishing last week, do I say I Casted off in my boat and Casted my line upon the lake? / And what about my Druid days back in ould Ireland, when I Casted a spell over the fair Queen Maeb? OKOK, nevermind about That one either. 🙂

    Nate argues persuasively re the potentially large error margin in polling in a contest like this one. Still, IF the last-gasp Siena Poll has got it about right, and if Owens can grab two-thirds of the abruptly-inflated 18% Undecided segment plus maybe a point or two off of Dede’s 6% — which I think he can — he wins.

    My beloved Union Goons ;> are now united for Owens & their GOTV prowess may tell the Tale.

    Granted, as Nate writes, that –

    “Mark Blumenthal has a very good, and very thorough, overview of the polls, and basically argues that if people want to concentrate on the Siena result while ignoring PPP, they’re probably engaged in wishful thinking (provided they’re rooting for Owens, anyway).”

    Fair enough. And I am rooting for Owens. Whether the thinking is merely Wishful, we shall soon See.

  17. gahrie

    Joe:

    Have you ever read anything by SCI FI author Eric Flint? (He writes a lot of alternate history) From what I can tell, you two have very similar political leanings.

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