The BCS at-large pecking order

In the wake of the Eugene Massacre, my posts on the BCS championship game “pecking order” have lost all significance for USC fans. It would take a nationwide collapse of utterly epic, cataclysmic proportions — making the BCS chaos of 2007 look like a day at the beach — to get the two-loss Trojans back into the national championship picture. At this point, USC’s position in the title-game pecking order (or should I say quacking order?) is somewhere behind Boise State, TCU, Houston, William & Mary, Appalachian State, Glastonbury High School, and your local peewee league team. All thanks to this a**hole:

Now, having said that, I am personally still rooting for Texas, Iowa and Cincinnati to lose, in order to open the door to another glorious BCS controversy — and a potential invite for TCU or Boise State, assuming Oregon is the top one-loss team in the mix. But it doesn’t look likely to happen, what with Texas apparently peaking at the right time and needing only to defeat five utterly overmatched opponents (UCF, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, and the champion of the dreadful Big 12 North) in order to finish undefeated and land, almost by default, in its appointed spot in Pasadena for a matchup with Florida/Alabama/LSU. So, unless and until there’s some movement at the top of the standings, I won’t be wasting too much more time with that “pecking order.”

But there’s a different “pecking order,” one that I’ve touched on briefly before, which is now extremely relevant to USC fans — and Notre Dame fans, too. It’s the BCS at-large pecking order, and unlike the contest to earn a spot in the championship game, it is determined primarily by non-football factors like national profile, potential ratings, and butts-in-seats, with actual athletic merit being almost a sideshow. You gotta earn your way into the Top 14 by season’s end, but once you’re there, the actual selections are all about money, money, money.

Anyway, here’s the deal. There are 10 available spots in the five BCS bowls. Six of them (including, presumably, both title-game slots) will go to the six BCS conference champions. Another spot, an “automatic at-large,” will go to either TCU or Boise State, or, in the unlikely event that both of those teams lose, possibly to one-loss Utah or Houston (currently #14 and #15, and sure to rise into the Top 12 if they win out). If no team from a non-AQ conference finishes in the Top 12 (or the Top 16 and ahead of the lowest-ranked BCS conference champ), then there’s no “BCS buster,” but that’s highly unlikely. Almost certainly, some mid-major squad gets an automatic ticket to the BCS.

That leaves three true “at-large” spots, which the bowls are free to fill which any eligible (i.e., Top 14) teams they want — but no more than one at-large per conference. After the jump, I consider who those three invites might go to.

Almost without question, one at-large will go to an SEC team. This will probably be the conference title-game loser, though if LSU beats Alabama and then loses to Florida in the SEC title game, it’ll be Alabama (possibly even as a BCS championship-game participant). If LSU beats Alabama and wins the SEC title, then either mighty Florida or mighty Alabama, despite having only one loss (and despite the SEC being a war!), will not be BCS-bound at all — and wouldn’t that be something? (Geaaaaux Tigers? Caaaause chaos?)

But regardless, the SEC gets one at-large. That leaves two for everybody else to fight over.

In ranking “everybody else” by likelihood of getting a berth, I’m assuming — unless otherwise stated — that the team in question wins out. Likewise, unless otherwise stated, I’m assuming the BCS title game is #1 SEC Champion vs. #2 Texas, which would mean the BCS selection order is: Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl. (The Big East champion and Boise/TCU — or whoever gets the mid-majors’ automatic at-large — must be picked among those five selections, along with the three “true” at-larges.)

NOTE: If Texas is #1 (i.e., if a one-loss team wins the SEC), the picture changes slightly. If Texas falters and Iowa gets into the title game, the picture changes dramatically. If both Texas and Iowa falter, or the SEC implodes and fails to produce a #1 or #2 team, chaos erupts. But we’ll cross those bridges if and when we come to them. For now, here’s how I see the at-large pecking order shaping up:

1. Notre Dame. Love ’em or hate ’em, the Irish are a sure thing to get a BCS berth if they finish 10-2 and BCS-eligible. Although they’re currently mired in the #23 spot, I’m almost certain they would be in the Top 14 if they win out, for reasons I’ve explained previously. If that happens, they’ll be going BCS-bowling, no matter how much howling it might produce from non-invited teams (including, potentially, USC). Period, end of story. The only real question is whether, assuming the SEC champ is ranked #1, the Sugar Bowl would take the Irish — most likely sacrificing the SEC runner-up to be taken by the Fiesta or Orange Bowls — or take the SEC champ and leave Notre Dame to play in the Fiesta Bowl. If the SEC champ is #1 and Iowa is #2 (i.e., if Texas loses), it’s possible ND falls to the Orange Bowl. But I digress. The point is, if the Irish go 10-2, they’ll be in a BCS bowl.

2. Penn State. If the Nittany Lions win out, yet don’t win the Big Ten (because Iowa goes at least 2-1 in its remaining three games), they’re almost as much of a BCS at-large “lock” as Notre Dame. They’d be 11-1, and they have one of those massive, fervent, travel-happy fan bases that bowl selection committees love. Bottom line: JoePa & co. are three wins away from playing in either the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl (depending on how the whole ND/SEC thing plays out), or possibly even the Rose Bowl (if Iowa goes to the title game).

3a. One-loss Texas. If Texas wins the rest of its regular-season games, then gets stunned by the Big 12 North champion in the conference title game, they’d be a pretty attractive at-large candidate at 12-1, with the only asterisk being the fact that they lost their final game, in a monumental upset to boot. Because of that asterisk, as well as the whole rabid midwestern fan-base thing, I think 10-2 Notre Dame and 11-1 Penn State — both of which would be on lengthy winning streaks, in contrast to 12-1 Texas’s one-game losing streak — would be more attractive candidates. Thus, if both the Irish and Nittany Lions are available, Big 12 runner-up Texas could be left out in the BCS cold. But these hypothetical Longhorns are next in line if either PSU or ND falls. Unless…

3b. One-loss Iowa. I’m honestly not sure which team, Iowa or Texas, is more attractive coming off a late loss, from the perspective of the bowl selection committees. So I’ve chickened out, and ranked them as “3a” and “3b.” This is a moot point unless Iowa’s one loss is to Ohio State, and the Buckeyes also beat Penn State and Michigan (because, unless Ohio State wins out, Iowa will be the Big Ten champion, even with a loss).

5. Two-loss Penn State. If the Nittany Lions lose at Ohio State this weekend, but end the season with wins over Indiana and Sparty to finish 10-2, and climb back into the Top 14 (which I think they probably would, by attrition, after initially falling out after the tOSU loss), I think they still go BCS bowling, unless Ohio State wins out and Iowa gets an at-large, or unless Notre Dame wins out and Texas loses in the Big 12 title game (in which case the Irish and Longhorns will gobble up both available bids). Otherwise, I think the Nittany Lions, even at 10-2 and on the fringes of the Top 14, are too great of a bowl draw to get passed over. Sort of like Notre Dame Lite.

6. USC. Yes, I know they just got destroyed by Oregon. But if USC wins its last four games, to finish 10-2, they’d look pretty good to a bowl selection committee. They’ve got the national profile, they put butts in seats and eyeballs on TV screens, etc. Who is going to get picked ahead of them, aside from Notre Dame, Texas, Penn State or Iowa? Miami is the most plausible answer, but the Orange Bowl is probably the decider in this scenario, and they’re not going to set up an ACC rematch between the Hurricanes and Georgia Tech or Clemson. Alternatively, if the Fiesta Bowl is doing the choosing, I think the folks in Glendale would have more faith in USC’s ability to sell tickets for a game in Arizona than in Miami’s (or Cincinnati’s or TCU/Boise’s) ability to do so. So I think the Trojans get the nod, assuming that only one team from the above-listed quartet is available.

7a. Miami. Okay. Let’s say Notre Dame and USC each lose a game, and Texas doesn’t. The Sugar Bowl takes an SEC team. The Fiesta Bowl takes a Big Ten team. The Orange Bowl is left with a very limited menu of options. They won’t take Miami and set up an ACC rematch, but since the at-large pool is filled with unattractive choices (unless perhaps Wisconsin is available; see below), maybe they take undefeated Big East champ Cincinnati. Now the Sugar Bowl is on the clock again. Whom do they match up with the SEC runner-up? How about Miami? Sounds like almost a dream matchup for a southeastern bowl, no? The Hurricanes need some help — specifically, losses by both of my alma maters — but this could definitely happen.

7b. Wisconsin. I originally ranked Wisconsin #6, but demoted them to #7b upon further consideration. I think I was over-generalizing fan-base characteristics based on geography and conference — God love ’em, but the Badgers just aren’t the Nittany Lions or Hawkeyes. 10-2 USC seems clearly more attractive than 10-2 Wisconsin. As for comparing 10-2 Wisconsin with 10-2 Miami, I think it really depends on the bowl doing the selecting, which is why I’ve ranked them as “tied.” Regardless, the Badgers are an off-the-wall, under-the-radar team to include on this list, and they’re very unlikely to have a shot because it would require neither Iowa nor Penn State to be at-large eligible. But suppose Iowa wins out, and Penn State loses 2 of its last 3. Ohio State and Penn State would both be 9-3, and out of the picture. Iowa would be the conference champion. The Badgers, meanwhile, can quietly win out (their last 4 are at Indiana, vs. Michigan, at Northwestern, at Hawaii), finish 10-2, and climb into the Top 14 by attrition (they’re currently #21). An out-of-nowhere success story with (again) another one of those big midwestern fan bases? I think the Fiesta or Orange Bowl would go for that, if USC (and perhaps Miami) is unavailable.

After Miami and Wisconsin, we get into the real dregs of the at-large pool, from the bowls’ perspectives. Included on this list would be Oklahoma State at 10-2; Cal at 10-2; Oklahoma at 9-3; Ohio State at 9-3 (maybe); Big East runner-up Cincinnati or Pittsburgh; and, of course, whichever undefeated mid-major team (Boise or TCU) didn’t get the automatic at-large bid. It’s pretty unlikely we get down this far, though — and if we do, it probably means that events I’m not thinking of will have transpired, potentially altering the picture. So I’ll stop my “pecking order” at Miami for now.

Bottom line for USC fans: root against Notre Dame (dammit), root for Texas in the Big 12 title game*, and root for Iowa and against Penn State (twice!). Though, really, if the Irish lose a game, and the Longhorns win the Big 12, the Trojans are probably BCS-bound regardless of what happens in the Big Ten. In that scenario, the SEC and Big Ten would get one at-large bid each, and there’d still be one spot available for USC to claim, with no other attractive candidates available to claim it.

(Conversely, in order for USC and Notre Dame to both get at-large bids — my ideal scenario — the Big Ten needs to work itself out in such a way that neither Iowa nor Penn State is in the at-large pool.)

*USC fans can safely root against Texas prior to the Big 12 title game, because even if the Longhorns lose one game, they still win the Big 12 South, and thus will either finish 12-1 and a conference champion, or 11-2 with two late losses and out of the at-large picture. Meanwhile, although a Texas loss would put Iowa in the BCS title game, that would merely give the Rose Bowl, rather than the Fiesta Bowl, a chance to grab Penn State (or perhaps Wisconsin), leaving the rest of the selection order undisturbed.

Only if Texas and Iowa both lose do things get potentially dicey for the Trojans (assuming an Irish loss and a Longhorn conference title). Why? Because then we might have a team without a “host bowl” — i.e., Cincinnati, TCU or Boise State — headed for the title game, in which case the Orange Bowl picks second (after the Sugar Bowl, assuming the SEC champ is ranked #1), and gets a shot at one of those cash-cow Big Ten teams. That would leave the Sugar Bowl with an intriguing choice: a regionally juicy matchup between Florida/Alabama and a resurgent Miami, or the SEC vs. USC matchup that fans nationally have been dying to see, but in a year when it might not be so exciting (because the Trojans are down). I’m honestly not sure what the Sugar Bowl would do in that case. … On the other hand, maybe it’s a moot point, because maybe if Texas and Iowa lose, Oregon goes to the BCS title game, in which case USC goes to — wait for it — the Rose Bowl.

(Side note: if Notre Dame wins out, and Texas loses a game, and Iowa wins out, and Penn State loses twice and Wisconsin loses once, and 9-3 Ohio State doesn’t claw its way back into the Top 14 after losing to Iowa — in other words, if the Rose Bowl loses Iowa to the BCS title game, and no Big Ten teams are eligible to take the Hawkeyes’ place — who goes to Pasadena to play Oregon on January 1? Perhaps… Notre Dame?!? The Fighting Irish vs. the Ducks in the Granddaddy of Them All? Could happen!)