To the extent there’s a broader lesson to be drawn from tonight’s results, Andrew Sullivan nails it, I think:
How easily we forget. We get caught up in the health insurance fight, we game the Beck-Palin subculture, we chatter about Israel and Iran, we obsess about marriage equality … while the voters who do not do politics for a living are simply trying to survive one of the worst downturns in history. The votes tonight are anti-incumbent votes in protest at economic crisis and the slow pace of recovery.
Bloomberg’s stunningly poor showing also fits into this analysis. Though there’s also, I think, a hint of anti-gazillionaire populism in the rejection of Corzine and near-rejection of Bloomberg. In this age of bailouts and Wall Street outrages, self-funded campaigners need to be careful. A shot across Mitt Romney’s bow, perhaps?
By the way, it’s looking good for the Democrat Owens in NY-23, but various conservative tweeters are reporting that Hoffman’s people are still expecting a late surge, based on their precinct-level data. Hard to know if that’s realistic, or if they’re deluding themselves. Politicians’ ability to stay in denial about the electoral chances, even as the facts contradict them, can be staggering. But who knows? It ain’t over till the fat governor-elect of New Jersey sings. 😛
(Gay marriage is Maine is also too close to call, BTW.)
P.S. Marc Ambinder:
The Republican wins in New Jersey and Virginia and the close race in New York City tells us…
…self-financers, people affiliated with Big Wall Street, the Old Money Crowd, the establishment, the party leadership… are being put on notice. Not a Democratic or Republican thing…but a gun, fired by the political regulars — not the newer Obama turnout cohort but the regular off-year cohort — at the heart of those who protect those in power, at bailouts, at spending.
Also: very easy alternate explanation: the economy sucks. States are really hurting. Governors are very unpopular. Their support is going to crater.
Assuming Sullivan is right (which I find to be a dubious proposition for several reasons, but let’s not go there right now), then Obama is not getting the “guy with a mop” message across, and if the job market is not in serious sustained recovery by this time next year — the stock market being all but irrelevant, since it’s gained more than 50% in eight months — then the midterms will be a bloodbath for the Democrats.
Except that the stock market isn’t irrelevant, because it’s what they call a leading indicator. Jobs are a trailing one. I’m pretty confident that unemployment will be in much better shape by this time next year.
Leading indicators and lagging indicators are not the biggest issue. You will not have an economic recovery on the consumer side with $3-a-gallon gas, and you’re not going to get much of one with $2.50-a-gallon gas. Plain and simple.
I think a lot of people are tempted to either make more or less of these elections than there is.
Deeds’ performance in VA was bafflingly bad. I can’t speak for NJ. I think the VA election had a lot to do with the candidates themselves here. As in local politics. It has also been obvious for a while that a Deeds victory was a long shot. Those contribute to create the margin. But clearly there was no coat tail at all for Deeds to hold onto either.
That is to say, Deeds lost on his own merits. And Obama lacked either the will or the power to make up for Deeds’ deficiencies. Again, trying not to make more of this or less of this than it really is.
But let’s be honest here, Kane did a good job screwing the pooch for Deeds. At this point I wouldn’t vote Tim Kane for dog catcher after the craptacular amount of stupid that is the beltway hot-lane idea. I’ve got a plan, the state will build an expansion for a road. Then the state will set up a system for paying tolls to use the new lanes. Then the state will put law enforcement officers out to make sure that only people paying the toll will use the road. Then an outside vendor will make all the money from the tolls… WHAT THE FUCK!?! Oh and the state will also sign a non compete contract with that vendor saying they won’t build additional lanes on the beltway. WHAT THE FUCK!?! Oh yeah, and the vendor gets the money from the tickets too. WHAT THR FUCK!?! Not to mention the traffic planners have already concluded that it is not possible to actually add lanes to the beltway fast enough to handle the increasing traffic. How about we try some other ideas then instead of building more fucking roads?
How is the price of gas going to dictate our economic growth?
I mean, I could see if gas was 5 or 6 dollars a gallon but at 3 I just don’t see people really stressed out about it.
Unlike pthread, I’m not at all confident that unemployment will be in much better shape by this time next year, precisely because it is a lagging indicator, i.e., it will remain high even if the economy is rebounding by this time next year.
Between the stock market and the job market being more important for an incumbent in an election year, the latter wins hands down every time.