12 thoughts on “Twitter: Predictions? VA-GOV, NJ-GOV, …”

  1. Brendan Loy

    VIRGINIA

    McDonnell 56.2%
    Deeds 43.8%

    NEW JERSEY

    Corzine 44.3%
    Christie 44.1%
    Daggett 11.1%
    Others 0.5%

    (“RECOUNT! FRAUD!! ACORN!!!”)

    NY-23

    Owens (D) 44.7%
    Scozzafava (R) 3.9%
    Scozzafava (I) 0.4%
    Hoffman (C) 49.9%
    Owens (WF) 1.1%

    MAINE

    Yes 51.3%
    No 48.7%

    (“Yes” = no gay marriage.)

    NEWINGTON

    Wright 50.9%
    Bowen 49.1%

  2. dcl

    Is the polling really that bad for Deeds? If it ends up like that it will be rather depressing. Especially since McDonnell is a total Jackass. In fairness, Deeds is also a total jackass. But not with a capital J which makes him slightly more palatable.

  4. B. Minich

    Deeds has been doing badly for months at this point. I think he took a wrong turn early – he focused in on McDonnell’s personal beliefs, McDonnell focused his campaign on jobs and on NoVa types of issues with transit. At least, that’s the impression from Maryland – Deeds hasn’t talked about issues, McDonnell has.

    I do wonder if this is the young vote staying home. When Virginia went Democratic last year, it was because Obama brought a lot of young voters whom he appealed to with him. Are they showing up this year? I think the polling says no.

  5. dcl

    Well, I just voted, if the polling place I went to is any indication, Deeds is done for. If he has any chance of winning I should have been standing line not the only person at the polling place the entire time I was voting during lunch.

    McDonnell appeals to outside the belt way NoVa types.

    But you are right, Deeds never bothered to focus on the issues. The only way to have half an idea where he stood on anything was to go to his website.

  6. pthread

    Brendan: You really think Yes on 1 will win on Maine, and by such a margin? Not that this is the best metric in the world, but have you seen the disparity in donations by people in Maine?

  7. Joe Loy

    OK, OK, I’ll Play. ;}

    VIRGINIA

    McDonnell 57.4%
    Deeds 42.6%

    NEW JERSEY

    Corzine 44.3%
    Christie 41.4%
    Daggett 12.3%
    Others 2.0%**

    **[Higher than yours, Brendan, in part because the Stein & Stein ticket at the very Bottom of this list has GOTTA pull in at least One point all by their Own selves — just based on their lyrical County-by-County “Slogans” in the right-hand column of the document. Hee hee hee! :]

    NY-23

    [Hoffman, Schoffman. I Stand upon my Forecastle as I have previously Aftcast it. :} So consider it an Alternate History, already. ;> However, in recognition of your sage Agreement with my estimate re the Unreconstructed Scozzafavorers I will Deign to subdivide my numbers per your pickypicky Ballot categories, which won’t be Reported tonight anyway. / Nerd. 🙂

    Owens (D) 49.1%
    Scozzafava (R) 3.9%
    Scozzafava (I) 0.4%
    Hoffman (C) 44.4%
    Owens (WF) 2.2%

    MAINE

    Yes 48.7%
    No 51.3%

    ;>

    (”Yes” = no gay marriage.)

    NEWINGTON

    Wright 54.0%
    Bowen 46.0%

  8. Brendan Loy

    I have no idea what will happen in Maine, pthread. I was trying to be pessimistic, so I can be pleasantly surprised if Teh Gays win.

  9. Alec

    “Teh Gays?” Is that some sort of coded slight? 🙂

    1. The last VA Gov to be elected from the party of the sitting president was Miles Goodwin in 1974. That trend ain’t ending tonight. And Sabato has some good points too. By the way, Brandon refers to VA going democratic “last year” – but in truth the GOP hasn’t won a US Senate or gubernatorial race there for 8 years (yeah, it was that “macaca” guy).

    2. NJ is going to be damn close, but I think Corzine wins it. Just.

    3. I think Owens in NY-23 (disagreeing with most pollsters – at least those with pre-Scozzafava-endorsement fieldwork). But it’s going to be extremely close. And if it happens, the first person I want to hear from is NEWT GINGRICH.

    4. Maine – yeah, I agree with Brendan – victory for Teh Gays. But that one is going to be damn close too.

    Why can’t we have an election every day? Or is that what American Idol is for?

  11. B. Minich

    An interesting question: since Deeds lost, how does that reflect on the DNC chair Tim Kaine? Especially since he’s the outgoing governor of VA? One would think that the DNC chair might be able to deliver his home state.

    Not a big deal – Kaine isn’t a bad choice for the position, and the position is less important with a Democrat in the White House, but it is an interesting question.

  12. dcl

    Warning, this comment is ratted M due to severe grumpiness…

    Honestly, I think Deeds loosing is, pretty much, totally a reflection on Deeds’ totally shit-tacular campaign. And McDonnell completely running away from the Republican party (though he was totally cool with taking as much money as they were willing to give him). But mostly it has to do with Deeds’ sheer shit-tacularness. There is a reason I didn’t vote for him in the primary and the only reason I got off my ass to vote yesterday was that I know enough about McDonnell to know he will pretty much fuck the state up the ass the next four years. At which point the Democrats will come back in and fix the budget again so that the Republicans can do stupid shit again. Because that’s just how we roll in the Old Dominion…

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