Be a bit nervous, at least. Mao’s notorious Great Leap Forward, which led to the deaths of millions of peasants, shares some disturbing characteristics with the current Chinese economic “miracle”. Mao’s revolution was defined by vast increases in productivity and economic activity in the cities, only without any real consumer class for the goods produced. Out in the countryside, the irrelevant peasants starved by the millions.
This time around, we Americans have soaked up some of the Chinese production. But there’s still no developed domestic consumer class, and there’s still gross overproduction. Beijing’s 2008 Olympic showcase, with its many now-useless landmarks, is a visible example of this.
Because China is a closed country, no one really knows what the heck is going on. But Maoist China’s track record shouldn’t give anyone confidence that things are ok there.
ceiliazul
I did read the article, and some details are presented… I have to wonder though, are columnists in other countries writing similar articles about the United States?
On Main datapoint was the Chinese 0.9T government deficit spending. Washington laughs at that pocket change… for now.
My brother and I have speculated on this for about a year or two now. Basically, if China slows down at all, there will be a lot of young people without jobs all of a sudden. And that’s never a good thing for stability.
Speaking of which . . . the US isn’t doing so hot in that area either.
Fun times . . . .fun times.
gahrie
“there will be a lot of young people without jobs”
More importantly, young MEN without jobs…millions of young men who also have very poor prospects for marriage.
I would not be surprised if China started a war of expansion..either kill the extra men off, or conquer land and wives for them.
Interestingly, or perhaps scarily, nearby India also has million of extra men who are poor and probably wifeless….
David K.
Wait…did gahrie just predict a war with India?!? Really???
Yes, I think so. But this is something I think could happen, if the circumstances are right. I hope that never happens, but two countries on the rise next to each other with different world views? War is a distinct possibility. Not imminent, I think, but not impossible.
Brendan Loy
Again I say: PANIC!!!!!
gahrie
David K:
Let’s be clear..I am not predicting a war between the US and either China or India…I am suggesting that both China and India have millions of surplus males. History shows us that a common solution to that problem is a war of conquest.
Doc
Is China cooking the books on their growth? Probably. But that doesn’t mean the economy is shrinking. It’s probably not pulling nine percent annualized at this point, but from where I sit, there’s still a lot of economic activity and growth, at every level.*
As for where I sit, I’m in Zhejiang province, in a small city – between 600,000 and 1 million. I hear fireworks every day. That means someone is opening a business, or closing a real estate deal. Every time I go past the new strip mall, there are more businesses open. They won’t all succeed, of course, but that’s life.
The thing to remember about China is that there is a lot of low-hanging fruit, economically speaking. The consumer class here is growing rapidly, because there are a LOT of poor people in China, and economic growth is making them less poor. Oh, and everybody – 1.6 billion? – needs food, and services, and transportation, and clothing, on a regular basis. There are also a lot of things that are “powered by Wang” as a friend says – labor-intensive instead of machine intensive – and changing that, over time, makes the economy more efficient.
I’m not sure where they get the economic stimulus numbers, but there are massive infrastructure projects underway all over China. Bridges, highways, subway systems, dams, power plants – serious stuff, not the kind of random pork that the US stimulus is being spent on. They’re probably overproducing office space, but aside from luxury condos, which haven’t filled up (in some cities), housing is in high demand.
Of course, that’s just my opinion. I’m basing my housing comment on the fact that there are a lot of people in the countryside who want to move to the cities, and there are a lot of people living ten to an apartment. Or more – I’ve got no idea how many people lived across the hall from me last year, but they had eight bunk beds in the space I was using as a living room.
* By “every level” I mean that there is a wide range of options available for anything you need. You can spend a hundred bucks getting your hair styled, or you can pay fifty cents to a guy who has a pair of clippers and a stool he sets up in the street. There are tinkers, tailors, and cobblers on the street, and roving food vendors whose ‘restaurant’ consists of a grill, some tongs, and a few plastic chairs.
I’m not panicking, and I’m staying here for a while longer.
Doc
Oh, and neither China nor India has extra women for the other to steal, and the border isn’t really conducive to a ground campaign.
I figure there’ll be a lot more acceptance of “comrades” in the coming decades, along with other non-marital outlets for sexual frustration.
Be a bit nervous, at least. Mao’s notorious Great Leap Forward, which led to the deaths of millions of peasants, shares some disturbing characteristics with the current Chinese economic “miracle”. Mao’s revolution was defined by vast increases in productivity and economic activity in the cities, only without any real consumer class for the goods produced. Out in the countryside, the irrelevant peasants starved by the millions.
This time around, we Americans have soaked up some of the Chinese production. But there’s still no developed domestic consumer class, and there’s still gross overproduction. Beijing’s 2008 Olympic showcase, with its many now-useless landmarks, is a visible example of this.
Because China is a closed country, no one really knows what the heck is going on. But Maoist China’s track record shouldn’t give anyone confidence that things are ok there.
I did read the article, and some details are presented… I have to wonder though, are columnists in other countries writing similar articles about the United States?
On Main datapoint was the Chinese 0.9T government deficit spending. Washington laughs at that pocket change… for now.
My brother and I have speculated on this for about a year or two now. Basically, if China slows down at all, there will be a lot of young people without jobs all of a sudden. And that’s never a good thing for stability.
Speaking of which . . . the US isn’t doing so hot in that area either.
Fun times . . . .fun times.
“there will be a lot of young people without jobs”
More importantly, young MEN without jobs…millions of young men who also have very poor prospects for marriage.
I would not be surprised if China started a war of expansion..either kill the extra men off, or conquer land and wives for them.
Interestingly, or perhaps scarily, nearby India also has million of extra men who are poor and probably wifeless….
Wait…did gahrie just predict a war with India?!? Really???
Yes, I think so. But this is something I think could happen, if the circumstances are right. I hope that never happens, but two countries on the rise next to each other with different world views? War is a distinct possibility. Not imminent, I think, but not impossible.
Again I say: PANIC!!!!!
David K:
Let’s be clear..I am not predicting a war between the US and either China or India…I am suggesting that both China and India have millions of surplus males. History shows us that a common solution to that problem is a war of conquest.
Is China cooking the books on their growth? Probably. But that doesn’t mean the economy is shrinking. It’s probably not pulling nine percent annualized at this point, but from where I sit, there’s still a lot of economic activity and growth, at every level.*
As for where I sit, I’m in Zhejiang province, in a small city – between 600,000 and 1 million. I hear fireworks every day. That means someone is opening a business, or closing a real estate deal. Every time I go past the new strip mall, there are more businesses open. They won’t all succeed, of course, but that’s life.
The thing to remember about China is that there is a lot of low-hanging fruit, economically speaking. The consumer class here is growing rapidly, because there are a LOT of poor people in China, and economic growth is making them less poor. Oh, and everybody – 1.6 billion? – needs food, and services, and transportation, and clothing, on a regular basis. There are also a lot of things that are “powered by Wang” as a friend says – labor-intensive instead of machine intensive – and changing that, over time, makes the economy more efficient.
I’m not sure where they get the economic stimulus numbers, but there are massive infrastructure projects underway all over China. Bridges, highways, subway systems, dams, power plants – serious stuff, not the kind of random pork that the US stimulus is being spent on. They’re probably overproducing office space, but aside from luxury condos, which haven’t filled up (in some cities), housing is in high demand.
Of course, that’s just my opinion. I’m basing my housing comment on the fact that there are a lot of people in the countryside who want to move to the cities, and there are a lot of people living ten to an apartment. Or more – I’ve got no idea how many people lived across the hall from me last year, but they had eight bunk beds in the space I was using as a living room.
* By “every level” I mean that there is a wide range of options available for anything you need. You can spend a hundred bucks getting your hair styled, or you can pay fifty cents to a guy who has a pair of clippers and a stool he sets up in the street. There are tinkers, tailors, and cobblers on the street, and roving food vendors whose ‘restaurant’ consists of a grill, some tongs, and a few plastic chairs.
I’m not panicking, and I’m staying here for a while longer.
Oh, and neither China nor India has extra women for the other to steal, and the border isn’t really conducive to a ground campaign.
I figure there’ll be a lot more acceptance of “comrades” in the coming decades, along with other non-marital outlets for sexual frustration.