In another, 11th-hour BCS development, sources tell me the Fiesta Bowl committee took an unexpected turn in its deliberations this week and is now leaning heavily toward a matchup of the two undefeated mid-majors, TCU and Boise State. That would leave the Orange Bowl free to select Iowa or Penn State and send Cincinnati to the Sugar Bowl to face Florida.
Normally, I would hate that idea, for the same reason I loathe NCAA Tournament matchups like Butler vs. Old Dominion and Drake vs. Western Kentucky: they don’t give the mid-majors any opportunity to “validate” their season in the eyes of the skeptics by defeating a major-conference foe.
However, in this case, because the alternative appears to be TCU vs. Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl and Boise State vs. Iowa in the Fiesta Bowl, I’m not sure anything is really lost by setting up the “David vs. David” showdown in Glendale. The Yellow Jackets and Hawkeyes are both 2-loss teams from widely disrespected BCS conferences, so there’s precious little respect to be earned by beating them.
Far more would be gained from a TCU/Boise win against Florida in the Sugar Bowl, of course, as Utah learned last year when it beat Alabama. But that matchup looks unlikely to happen under any circumstances, because of the bowl selection order. So TCU-Boise may be as good an option as any.
Indeed, from a purely Boise-centric perspective, I think the Broncos would gain more respect by beating TCU than by beating Iowa. The same is not necessarily true in reverse: TCU would probably get marginally more conventional-wisdom “validation” from a win over GaTech then from a win over Boise. But it’s not a slam dunk.
In any case, we’ll see tomorrow what the bowls decide. (Though I actually won’t be watching live, as Becky and I are hosting a Christmas party/ceremony that directly conflicts with the selection show.)
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First, the advantage of both teams playing in different bowls is that they can BOTH end the season undefeated, which is way more fun 🙂
Second, I don’t think the Fiesta Bowl will have much choice:
What we know before the open selection begins:
NC: Alabama vs Texas
Rose: Oregon vs Ohio State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs ?
Fiesta: ? vs ?
Sugar: ? vs ?
Since the Sugar and Fiesta both lost a choice to the national championship game that means they get ONE pick each first. Sugar goes first and will pick Florida. Fiesta goes next and likely picks TCU since no Big 12 team is going to be in the top BCS 14 and TCU is regional.
That gives us:
NC: Alabama vs Texas
Rose: Oregon vs Ohio State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs ?
Fiesta: TCU vs ?
Sugar: Florida vs ?
I put these games in order for a reason, thats the selection order, so the Orange Bowl would have to pass on the Broncos in order for the Fiesta to choose them. I suppose the Orange Bowl could go with Cincinatti, which would lead to the Fiesta Bowl being able to choose Boise State, and then the Sugar Bowl gets the nightmare matchup, a choice between two 2 loss Big Ten teams.
Personally I’d rather see Florida vs. Boise State. Blue and Orange vs Blue and Orange. The cross country battle, the overrated SEC runner up vs the underrated WAC champion. David vs Goliath (watch out he’ll gouge your eyes out!).
Incidentally do you want me to text you the selections as they are made? I’ll be watching.