I knew it was coming! Brendan’s pet peeve in weather threads!!!!
I’ll let him deal with this, but I’m going to take this opprotunity to say “Welcome back, Alasdair!!! Great to see you again.”
Brendan Loy
Alasdair, welcome back. Now don’t be an idiot. 🙂 This is weather, not climate. The present cold snap has nothing to do with the overall climate, and if you claim otherwise, you lose all standing to complain when Al Gore & others cite a particular heat wave or hurricane as proof of global warming. It’s f***ing winter. It gets cold sometimes.
Even Alan Sullivan, who believes global warming is a liberal conspiracy and fears a lack of sunspots will plunge us into an Ice Age, says “one thing that is not happening is dramatic global cooling. It’s just cold where the people are.” He elaborates:
Near the equator and in parts of the southern hemisphere, sea temperatures are well above normal. So what’s going on?
We’ve talked about the ocean many times at FB. Right now there is a moderate El Nino — a warm anomaly along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is superimposed on the cold, negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which set in a couple of years ago. Nothing strange about this — these are normal cycles in the Pacific. But there is something unusual afoot in the smaller ocean — the Atlantic, which has flipped into an extreme phase of its own, short term oscillation. For Europe and North America this Atlantic anomaly over-rides what is happening in the Pacific. Harsh winter weather is typical of an Atlantic oscillation, and this one is the sharpest ever measured in the short time-line of accurate data.
But there is something else — an exceptional episode of stratospheric warming over the Arctic. These things happen from time to time. The cause is unknown, but clearly extraterrestrial. The current episode is much more intense and long lived than usual. Its principal effect on surface weather is to displace cold air from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Some parts of the Arctic — Greenland in particular — are very mild right now. Don’t get excited. Prodigious amounts of snow are falling there too, and net ice accumulation is the probable consequence. Meanwhile Europe and the eastern 2/3 of the US are severely cold — and so are parts of Asia.
For the present there is no sign of change in the pattern. Cold and snow will continue. El Nino will have much less impact than usual, though it has activated sub-tropical jet stream activity over Mexico and the southern US from time to time. As climatological midwinter arrives, many records for cold will be set. This morning it hit -33 F in Fargo, just edging an old mark. But the anomalies will be greater in the southern US. I do not envy Florida citrus growers just now, and even dormant fruit trees may be damaged in many southeastern states during the cold nights ahead.
Is this “welcome to the ice age?” Not yet, barring a major volcanic eruption, or some unforeseen effects of the “local fluff.” (We’ll talk about that again some other time.) But watch the sun, rare readers. Those of you young enough to see the next [sunspot] minimum will learn just how rough all this may get.
As I said: Sullivan, going against the grain of conventional wisdom (as is his wont) and buying into ludicrous right-wing conspiracy theories (alas, also his wont), believes we may be in for some serious global cooling in the coming years. But even he concedes that this is not it.
Brendan Loy
LOL … I totally had not seen Brandon’s post when I wrote mine. Hilarious.
Brendan Loy
P.S. To be clear, the possibility of temporary global cooling caused by a lack of sunspots is not “a ludicrous right-wing conspiracy theory.” It’s a real possibility, albeit an uncertain and unproven one, and, most significantly, NOT necessarily in contradiction to AGW (if global warming is real, a sunspot-fueled cooling period would merely slow or stall or temporarily reverse the warming trend, only to see it accelerate rapidly when the sunspots return and the cooling ends). What IS a ludicrous right-wing conspiracy is the notion that those leaked memos prove that OMG THE WHOLE THING IS A GIANT FRAUD. (Note: the linked article is from Popular Mechanics, a magazine that Glenn Reynolds, for one, frequently links and seems to respect — except, apparently, when it comes to their reporting on AGW-related issues.)
Brendan Loy
[Insert your own Alasdair quip here about AGW being an “uncertain and unproven” theory. Be sure to include several oddly placed apostrophes, Scottish references, and bad puns.]
See, Alasdair, I’m even making your comments for you. It’s like you never left. 🙂
Alasdair
Oh, Brendan, Brandon, whatever your names are … pray permit me to offer you the sage words of St Al of the Cult of AGW, Himself …
At this cite , he was apparently at his most coherent and honest …
Since folk appear to have forgotten some of the science …
I believe the most common greeenhouse gas is Dihydrogen Monoxide – at around (55+17) = 72% of greenhouse gases. (from diagram here)
Carbon Dioxide is a small fraction of total greenhouse gases … so – why are we concentrating on CO2 and not on Dihydrogen Monoxide ? More importantly, why are we panicking over CO2 (rushing to governmental controls) rather than building Nuclear Power sources (which do not release CO2 in any appreciable amount once they are up and running) ?
I’m still looking for a good reference for CO2 levels over the past billion or so years … during more than one period, CO2 levels were over 2000 ppm as I recall from reading/studying 40 years ago … I just refound reference to the Ordovician period …
Enough on that …
Any comments on the East Anglia Fudge Factor ? (grin)
Alasdair
Wot ?
Nothing to explain that the poor Fortran was merely coincidental ?
(grin)
I head back from the chilly yet bearable West Coast of Scotland to the much warmer southern California in about 12 hours … by Sunday, I’ll be back in Glendale, basking in the sunshine … enjoying my Chocolate Shreddies and my Honey Shreddies …
I’ll watch for cogent responses when I get there …
Brendan Loy
Alasdair, I’m not going to dignify the absurd “there’s more oxygen than CO2 in the atmosphere” nonsense with a response. It’s not an actual argument; it’s barely a coherent thought. As for the East Anglia stuff, I already linked to an excellent Popular Mechanics article about that, which pulls no punches in condemning the mendacity of the individuals involved, while simultaneously putting their actions into some reasonable perspective. I suggest you read it. I have nothing more to say about it.
http://twitpic.com/x2en7 – Brrr. It’s COLD outside.
It’s all over the country; here in Fort Worth the law school delayed opening and most school districts outside DFW shut down.
It’s about 28 here (windchill 15.)
THE TROPOSPHERE!!! THE TROPOSPHERE WILL KILL US ALL!!!!
[/Day After Tomorrow]
This is not what I want to hear. I’m going to Dallas, and was hoping for warmer weather then up in the Frozen North here.
Hmmmm … so which parts of this planet of ours are actually getting *warmer* ?
(grin) Well, I suppose the feet of the better-known Democrats are getting uncomfortably warmer as they are being held to the fire, finally !
I knew it was coming! Brendan’s pet peeve in weather threads!!!!
I’ll let him deal with this, but I’m going to take this opprotunity to say “Welcome back, Alasdair!!! Great to see you again.”
Alasdair, welcome back. Now don’t be an idiot. 🙂 This is weather, not climate. The present cold snap has nothing to do with the overall climate, and if you claim otherwise, you lose all standing to complain when Al Gore & others cite a particular heat wave or hurricane as proof of global warming. It’s f***ing winter. It gets cold sometimes.
Even Alan Sullivan, who believes global warming is a liberal conspiracy and fears a lack of sunspots will plunge us into an Ice Age, says “one thing that is not happening is dramatic global cooling. It’s just cold where the people are.” He elaborates:
As I said: Sullivan, going against the grain of conventional wisdom (as is his wont) and buying into ludicrous right-wing conspiracy theories (alas, also his wont), believes we may be in for some serious global cooling in the coming years. But even he concedes that this is not it.
LOL … I totally had not seen Brandon’s post when I wrote mine. Hilarious.
P.S. To be clear, the possibility of temporary global cooling caused by a lack of sunspots is not “a ludicrous right-wing conspiracy theory.” It’s a real possibility, albeit an uncertain and unproven one, and, most significantly, NOT necessarily in contradiction to AGW (if global warming is real, a sunspot-fueled cooling period would merely slow or stall or temporarily reverse the warming trend, only to see it accelerate rapidly when the sunspots return and the cooling ends). What IS a ludicrous right-wing conspiracy is the notion that those leaked memos prove that OMG THE WHOLE THING IS A GIANT FRAUD. (Note: the linked article is from Popular Mechanics, a magazine that Glenn Reynolds, for one, frequently links and seems to respect — except, apparently, when it comes to their reporting on AGW-related issues.)
[Insert your own Alasdair quip here about AGW being an “uncertain and unproven” theory. Be sure to include several oddly placed apostrophes, Scottish references, and bad puns.]
See, Alasdair, I’m even making your comments for you. It’s like you never left. 🙂
Oh, Brendan, Brandon, whatever your names are … pray permit me to offer you the sage words of St Al of the Cult of AGW, Himself …
At this cite , he was apparently at his most coherent and honest …
Since folk appear to have forgotten some of the science …
I believe the most common greeenhouse gas is Dihydrogen Monoxide – at around (55+17) = 72% of greenhouse gases. (from diagram here)
Carbon Dioxide is a small fraction of total greenhouse gases … so – why are we concentrating on CO2 and not on Dihydrogen Monoxide ? More importantly, why are we panicking over CO2 (rushing to governmental controls) rather than building Nuclear Power sources (which do not release CO2 in any appreciable amount once they are up and running) ?
I’m still looking for a good reference for CO2 levels over the past billion or so years … during more than one period, CO2 levels were over 2000 ppm as I recall from reading/studying 40 years ago … I just refound reference to the Ordovician period …
Enough on that …
Any comments on the East Anglia Fudge Factor ? (grin)
Wot ?
Nothing to explain that the poor Fortran was merely coincidental ?
(grin)
I head back from the chilly yet bearable West Coast of Scotland to the much warmer southern California in about 12 hours … by Sunday, I’ll be back in Glendale, basking in the sunshine … enjoying my Chocolate Shreddies and my Honey Shreddies …
I’ll watch for cogent responses when I get there …
Alasdair, I’m not going to dignify the absurd “there’s more oxygen than CO2 in the atmosphere” nonsense with a response. It’s not an actual argument; it’s barely a coherent thought. As for the East Anglia stuff, I already linked to an excellent Popular Mechanics article about that, which pulls no punches in condemning the mendacity of the individuals involved, while simultaneously putting their actions into some reasonable perspective. I suggest you read it. I have nothing more to say about it.