Hawaii was lucky. As this awesome NOAA map shows, the main thrust of the energy in yesterday’s tsunami went almost “due” WNW from the epicenter of the Chile earthquake, at an angle of approximately 294 degrees, rather than 302 degrees — i.e., roughly halfway between WNW and NW — which would have taken it straight toward the islands.
This helps explain why the Marquesas Islands — roughly in the middle of that red finger reaching WNW — got waves on the order of 6-8 feet a few hours before the tsunami’s predicted arrival in Hilo, seemingly confirming the forecasts for Hawaii, but in fact the effect in Hawaii was far less significant than predicted.
(Via the L.A. Times.)
UPDATE/CORRECTION: This map apparently is the forecast — it’s based on computer model projections, not observed data. So I guess the scientists knew all along Hawaii wasn’t in the tsunami’s “bullseye,” but nevertheless there was enough risk to warrant the warnings.
Meanwhile, here’s a cool animation of the tsunami’s progress across the Pacific:
Truly a beautiful map. NOAA should sell poster-size prints of this an Hurricane track maps.