Here’s how Joe Lunardi assesses the bubble as of now. He’s got 33 teams as “locks,” including Louisville — which closed out historic Freedom Hall in memorable fashion by beating #1 Syracuse today — and Northern Iowa. Lunardi’s “bubble” consists of 22 teams competing for 11 spots, which he lists, in order, thusly:
IN (11, in S-Curve order): Marquette, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida, Illinois, Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s, Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State
OUT (11, in S-Curve order): Washington, UAB, Ole Miss, Wichita State, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota, South Florida, Connecticut
OFF THE BOARD: Cincinnati
I’m surprised to see ASU in, and UW so close. I should add that California would presumably be on that 22-team list somewhere as well — they certainly don’t show up as a “lock” — but I guess the Bears are being counted among the 17 expected “additional automatic qualifiers,” and thus don’t presently get included in Lunardi’s bubble analysis.