Here’s my annual Bubble Scoresheet (Word, PDF). If you print it out and check the teams off as they’re announced during the Selection Show, you’ll realize more quickly than other folks when the bubble is officially “tapped out” and no more bids are available.
As usual, my “PROBABLY IN” category includes some teams that are generally thought of as “locks,” but where there’s perhaps an ever-so-slight possibility they might be unexpectedly snubbed, a la Syracuse in 2007. The “PROBABLY OUT” category is the same thing in reverse: teams that are generally assumed to be dead in the water, but that could conceivably sneak in out of nowhere, a la Air Force in 2006.
Assuming the “PROBABLY IN” teams are all in, and the “PROBABLY OUT” teams are all out, we’ve got 10 bubble teams fighting for 6 spots: Cal, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Utah State, UTEP and Virginia Tech. Obviously, if Minnesota beats Ohio State in the Big Ten title game (now underway), the Gophers disappear from that list, and the remaining 9 “TRUE BUBBLE” teams would be fighting for 5 spots.
After the jump, the full scoresheet. Also, again, you can download it as a Word document or as a PDF file.
PROBABLY IN:
__ Clemson
__ Florida State
__ Louisville
__ Missouri
__ Notre Dame
__ UNLV
__ Wake Forest
TRUE BUBBLE:
(Assuming all “probably in” teams are in, and all “probably out” teams are out, 6 of these “true bubble” teams will get in.)
__ Cal
__ Florida
__ Georgia Tech
__ Illinois
__ Minnesota
__ Mississippi State
__ Seton Hall
__ Utah State
__ UTEP
__ Virginia Tech
PROBABLY OUT:
__ Arizona State
__ Cincinnati
__ Dayton
__ Kent State
__ Memphis
__ Ole Miss
__ Rhode Island
__ South Florida
__ UAB
__ Wichita State
__ William & Mary