#justsayin If Gordon Brown is promising the LibDems “immediate” electoral reform legislation in return for their joining a coalition government with him, what’s to stop them from joining until the legislation passes, then immediately bolting and demanding a new election? http://bit.ly/bc6JhF
If that happens, there isn’t much Brown can do about it. This is really his only shot at keeping power in the current parliament. The Tories are in a much stronger position here, as when combined with only the LibDems, they have the power to bring the government down. A LibLab pact doesn’t have that muscle on its own.
As I read a little while ago, Gordon Brown now has the dubious distinction of being the only Prime Minister NOT to have been elected Prime Minister *twice* !
Okay, so let’s be realistic about “immediate” and what that means. There would probably be legislation calling for a national referendum, which may or may not pass. Only after that occurs, and those reforms are prepared for and implemented, then the LibDems might be interested in a new election. The other option is, if Labour institutes some reforms on the LibDems’ behalf without a referendum, in which case the LibDems could break the coalition and push for a new vote. But the likely result in either scenario would probably be LibDem losses and Conservative gains (voters would tend to punish the incumbents for forcing another election so soon after the previous round), and in the best-case scenario for the LibDems, there would still be no clear majority due to proportional representation and we’d see another hung Parliament due to gains by the LibDems at the expense of Labour and Conservatives. So Clegg has little to gain beyond choosing a coalition partner and making the coalition work for at least 2-3 years while electoral reform gets implemented.
Also, you have to keep in mind just how poor the LibDems did last night. That will be a very bitter pill for Clegg and company to swallow, and it puts them in a far weaker position as a coalition partner than they figured to be in. Going right back to the voters would just be asking for even more punishment.
What is causing the grief right now in the UK is that there are only 2 combinations of parties which have more than the required 326 seats …
First, Conservative with LibDem – which may or may not happen …
Second, Conservative with Labour – initially, even less likely …
However … if things do not gel in a reasonable time period (days, possibly weeks), the Royal Suggestion *may* trickle down to the Commons to form a “National Unity Government” – probably Tory PM, Labour Chancellor of the Exchequer, LibDem Warden of the Northern Marches, etc … not probable, but it is one way of dealing with squabbling …
That is the big heartbreak for the LibDems … if they only had enough seats to be able to take *either* of Conservatives or Labour past that 326 post, they would be sitting pretty, allowing both sides to keep upping their bid …
And, yes, whoever forces a new General Election in the next few weeks will tend to be punished by the electorate …
It will surprise me if Gordon Brown is Labour Leader after the end of August …
Alasdair, I just can’t see a unity government in this environment. On the surface, it seems plausible, since Cameron is not much of a conservative, but then, Brown was never much of a New Labour guy. If the Brits have any wisdom left, they’ll look at history and see that their time as the Sick Man of Europe is directly correlated to the number of years spent under Labour and Unity governments.
Btw I’d appreciate your Scottish-bred thoughts on my musings yesterday.
This reeks of desperation on Brown’s part. Personally, I can’t see how Labour continues with him in any leadership position. I think that they managed to have their message about the Conservatives wanting to slash and burn start to sink in with just enough voters to get this result. On the other hand, if they pretty much tell the electorate to “Piss off!” and keep Brown in any leadership capacity despite the drubbing…well, yeah, that just means next time there won’t be a question.
With that being said, I think Cameron better watch his back. If you’re the face of the party and you can’t pull off the clear cut in this environment…well, some people might start to wonder if they need a new face of the party.
Well, the LibDems actually did slightly BETTER this election then last, percentage point wise. So they may not view getting a vote on election reform as bad for them – after all, they LOST seats while gaining in the popular vote. In their view, that’s the whole reason they need electoral reform.