Well, who here thought we’d be talking about college sports in June? Or that THE LANDSCAPE OF COLLEGE ATHLETICS WOULD CHANGE FOREVAR?
I’ve been thinking about the demise of the Big 12. Now, I know it is a fairly recent conference that lacks the history of what is now the Big Ten, that it was a marriage of connivence between the collapsing Southwestern Conference and the Big 8 that never really meshed well. But to have it just fall apart in a matter of weeks is amazing to watch. Plus, you have to remember: as a college sports fan, I really don’t remember a time before the Big 12. Now of course, I was around before then, and rooted for Penn State before then. But then I was a PSU fan, not a college football fan – I had no understanding of the landscape other than Penn State was independent, and they played Pitt a lot. Conferences weren’t of concern to me until after the Big 12 was an established entity, seeming like it had always been there.
And now, suddenly, it seems like it is going to go. I made this analogy before, but it seems apt: what is happening to the Big 12 is the college football equivalent of what happened to Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Both those banks were having issues, but weren’t actually in danger of collapse until the rumor began circulating that they were in danger of collapse. Once this happened, investors started pulling out, saying “if this bank is in danger of collapse, I’m not keeping cash here!” And suddenly, just like that, the bank had an actual lack of cash. Likewise, rumors began circulating around the Big 12 that teams are going to leave. This spooks the other teams, and makes them more likely to leave. Its a vicious cycle that seems like it will end in disaster for the conference.
Also, Jay Bilas (who is quite well connected) was on Mike and Mike in the Morning – the only show I’ve heard so far even discuss the basketball implications, and said something we have heard via Kyle Whelliston when the first whispers of the Big Ten’s desire to become a SuperConference were first being reported on. Bilas thinks that this is the big schools phase 1 of moving toward their own, non-NCAA tourney. He doesn’t think it’ll come about for a while. But he thinks that the landscape is ripe for SuperConference expansion to translate to a new SuperConference sports association with their own tourney.
So what happens now? Hard to say, except that the Pac-16 seems inevitable. And once the raiding of conferences begins, I find it hard to believe it won’t continue.
I think there a few things that can happen that will prevent, or atleast delay the birth of the super conference only league.
The first is a viable BCS level replacement for the Big 12 (or reformed Big 12). If the Mountain West, WAC, Conference USA teams of a high caliber can convince atleast some parts of the Big 12 to re-allign with them, they could form a conference that, football wise atleast, is as good or better than the Big East, and therefore worthy of a spot at the BCS table. Consider the following potential teams for a revived Big 12:
Boise State, Fresno State, Utah, BYU, TCU, Houston, Air Force, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, Houston, Memphis, SMU.
Sure they aren’t going to step up to the level of Texas, Florida, or previously USC, but they are atleast as good or better than most of the Big East and some fo the smaller teams in other conferences (WSU, Indiana, etc.)
The second is the SEC deciding not to expand or being unable to attract teams from the ACC to expand with.
The third would be congressional involvement.
I see where you’re going with the analogy, and have very little trouble disagreeing with it. (If you said on Jan. 1, 2000, that GM would be bankrupt in a decade, would you have believed them?)
The “Big 12” as an entity lacks the “history” of the Big Ten, and technically you’re right because of some obscure thing in which the Big 12 says it doesn’t claim the Big Eight’s history as its own. As some columnist pointed out, though, the schools were not unknown to each other.
But while someone may not remember a time before the Big 12, the point of growing up as a college football fan in its backyard means knowing that there was, and knowing everything behind it. “The Game of the Century.” “Fifth Down.” “The Border War.” Say those words, and everyone knows what they mean. (“Iowa State 19, Nebraska 10.” No catchy nickname except “Marvelous Marv Seiler”, but still magical around here.) It also means that there was still a continuity: Big Six. Big Seven. Big Eight. Big Twelve. Always growth, at least on the Big Eight side of things.
“A marriage that never meshed” or its variants has been a recurring phrase, and that argument has merit as well. Back when three networks were choosing a limited number of football games to show on television, it didn’t matter that Kansas City was the biggest market a conference had to itself. And before the practice-facility/luxury-box-stadium/Godzillatron arms race, it was not impossible to convince someone to come to Stillwater or Ames because the disparity between there and other places was not nearly as big. The only unchangeable issue has been the weather. (Wanna play the third Saturday in November when it’s snowing? Not unless you have the third-largest city in Nebraska cheering you on.)
But having been to all the stadiums of the Big 12 and a good handful of others, having seen the BCS not give a damn about anyone who doesn’t have cable or satellite, and having experienced personally the POWER of 21st-century televised college football by virtue of a cable company actually attempting to stand up for its customers and getting steamrolled, I have understood how those arguments lost water so rapidly.
The key difference between this and your analogy: When Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were collapsing, were the traders of other companies basking in nearly unconcealed glee that the lower-tier people about to lose their jobs might never work at such a prestigious place again? That’s what’s happening at fan forums in regards to the teams not being courted by anyone.
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