Did the GOP just get a fresh shot at a Senate majority? [UPDATE: No.]

Forgive me for being crassly political in the immediate aftermath of the sad news of Robert Byrd’s death — but there is, of course, a significant electoral and political angle to this. At least two such angles, actually. The U.S. Senate now has 99 senators — 56 Democrats, 2 Dem-caucusing independents, and 41 Republicans — and the question of who will take Byrd’s seat* has both short-term and long-term ramifications.

First, there are the immediate ramifications for financial reform. The Dems’ margin for passing the final version of their reform bill was already razor-thin, and they may now be unable to pass the bill immediately, thanks to Byrd’s death and a possible “no” vote by — who else? — Scott Brown.

If Brown, who voted for the original bill, decides to vote “no” on the conference-committee compromise bill, as he’s hinted he might do, the Byrd-less Dems wouldn’t have the 60 votes needed to pass it over a filibuster. So, unless the Dems decide this is the opportune moment to nuke the filibuster, passage would be at least delayed until a new senator from West Virginia replacement can be seated — and the ability to pass the bill at all could come down to the identity of that new senator, which, in turn, is up to West Virginia’s Democratic governor, Joe Manchin. Do you think perhaps a few Wall Street lobbyists are making calls to their contacts in Charleston, WV this morning?

(If Manchin picks someone anti-reform, could this be another case where the House must hold its nose and pass the Senate bill, followed by a “fix” bill that’s passed through reconciliation? Cripes. … On the other hand, West Virginia’s conservatism is pretty populist, no? I would think that a new senator would vote against a “crackdown on Wall Street” at her/her peril. It’s not like this is a gun-control bill or an abortion bill or something.)

Secondly, looking beyond the short-term question of that one specific issue, there’s the matter of the broader math, and the coming midterm elections. I’m suddenly reminded of something that Nate Silver wrote back in January:

I don’t think the possibility of [the Democrats] losing their [Senate] majority rates as higher than a small, single-digit number, although it cannot totally be ruled out if unexpected events (incapacitation of Robert Byrd and/or Daniel Inouye, a party switch from Joe Lieberman and/or Ben Nelson) come into play.

As it turns out, the precise timing of Byrd’s death is actually highly significant to this issue. If he’d held on for another week, the Democrats would be in much better shape. But as Silver wrote yesterday afternoon:

Byrd’s current term expires on January 3, 2013. Under West Virginia state law on handling Senate vacancies, “if the vacancy occurs less than two years and six months before the end of the term, the Governor appoints someone to fill the unexpired term and there is no election”. Otherwise, Manchin would appoint an interim replacement, and an special election would be held in November to determine who held the seat in 2011 and 2012.

In other words, we are within a week of the threshold established by West Virginia law. If a vacancy were to be declared on July 3rd or later, there would not be an election to replace Byrd until 2012. If it were to occur earlier, there could potentially be an election later this year, although there might be some ambiguities arising from precisely when and how the vacancy were declared.

I don’t perceive much “ambiguity” now, given that the vacancy was created by Byrd’s death (not his resignation or “incapacitation”), and his death certainly occurred prior to July 3. So presumably, if Silver is right about the law, this means West Virginia will be having a Senate election in November. [UPDATE: Or maybe not. Marc Ambinder suggests that Gov. Manchin can game the system by declining to “declare” a vacancy until after July 3. Hmm.] [UPDATE 2: Oh. Never mind.]

This is, needless to say, absolutely terrible news for the Democrats.

Without knowing anything about prospective candidates, I naturally have to assume that West Virginia is ripe for a GOP takeover, considering how conservative the state has trended. Byrd had that seat because he was elected to it in, like, 1843 or something, but I gotta believe the Republicans are heavy favorites now that he’s gone. The only question, it seems to me, is whether this is a North Dakota type situation (where the GOP is basically 100% certain to win) or an Arkansas type situation (where the GOP is very likely to win, but the Dems have a slight chance to hold the seat).

Anyway, let’s assume I’m right, and West Virginia is a likely GOP pickup in November, along with the four states identified in Silver’s most recent Senate rankings as likely or near-certain GOP pickups: North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware and Indiana. Those losses alone would bring the Dems down to 54 seats, from their current 59. Add in the “lean GOP pickup” states — Nevada and Pennsylvania — and that number becomes 52.

This means, if the Republicans can also pick up the “tossups” of Illinois and (ahem) Colorado, and hold on to all of their own seats (a key point), they can get to 50-50… and we’d be one GOP upset (like in California, perhaps?), or a Lieberman/Nelson party switch, away from a Republican Senate majority. Still fairly unlikely, but a lot less unlikely than 24 hours ago, when the lean/likely/near-certain pickup states only pushed the Dems down to 53, rather than 52.

Bottom line, the odds of a GOP takeover of the Senate have been steadily trending downward in recent months, despite the relatively toxic environment for Democrats, thanks largely to candidate selection issues (e.g., the Sharron Angle primary win in Nevada, Mark Kirk’s personal Blumenthal-gate in Illinois, the GOP’s failure to field a compelling challenger to Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, etc.). But if Silver is right that the timing of Byrd’s death sets up a special election this November to fill his seat*, the math just changed in a major way, and the Republicans once again have a reasonable path to 50, and an outside shot at 51.

*I know, I know, it’s the people’s seat.