Landfall is expected early tomorrow morning. Winds are “conservatively” estimated at 80 mph, and expected to increase. From the 5am EDT discussion:
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE [961 MB, NOW DOWN TO 959 MB] RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT…RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST [35 MPH] IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.