Heeeere comes Bonnie!

I blogged over at Sullivan’s Travelers about newly designated Tropical Depression Three, which has just formed over the Bahamas. It’s likely to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, and to move through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico. That expected track virtually guarantees that this storm will get a whole lot of media attention, far more than your average weak-ish tropical cyclone that probably won’t ever attain hurricane status, because, well…

That’s right: proto-Bonnie is forecast to pass pretty much directly over, or at least very close to, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill zone in the central Gulf. BP’s efforts to permanently stop the spill are already shutting down, and there will be much fevered speculation in the media about the storm’s potential direct impact on the existing oil slick.

Thankfully, this speculation is likely to be overblown. If the current intensity forecast (or anything close to it) holds, T.D. 3 will probably do little more than delay BP’s efforts for a few days. The prospect of a massive storm surge bring waves of oil-stained waters miles inland is just not looking realistic with this storm. The Houston Chronicle‘s Eric Berger explains:

The big question is how strong the depression will become. It bears repeating that none of the intensity models, unreliable though they may be, show substantial strengthening of this system as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

In its forecast the National Hurricane Center’s best guess is that it will attain a maximum wind speed of 50 mph, which would make it a moderately strong tropical storm. Such a storm would certainly impair ongoing efforts to mitigate the oil spill, but it would not have a large surge to drive oil inland.

The current forecast track brings the depression across the central Gulf of Mexico, right across the center of the spill. If the depression does unexpectedly strengthen into a reasonably large hurricane and develops a surge, the oil would likely be pushed inland toward the southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts, which have already borne the brunt of the spill effects.

So let’s hope the models are right and environmental conditions remain such that the depression remains relatively weak.

We’ll learn more about T.D. Three/proto-Bonnie as the day progresses. Both the intensity and track forecasts are in their early iterations now; a reconnaissance aircraft is on its way to investigate, and will provide invaluable information about the storm’s current status, and hopefully insight into its future. But at present, there’s no reason to really fear this storm. It is a big freakin’ nuisance, of course. But things could be a lot worse. The Gulf of Mexico is very capable of producing monster hurricanes at this time of year, and with the oil slick sitting in the middle of Hurricane Alley, there has been every reason to be concerned about that prospect, even moreso than usual. So if a piddling little tropical storm is the worst that June and July end up giving us, we should count ourselves lucky. And then perhaps say a few prayers about August and September. *knock on wood*

P.S. Dr. Jeff Masters has some general background information on a hurricane’s potential impact on the oil spill, and vice versa.