Independent BYU would have virtually no BCS shot

It’s been a crazy day for conference realignment, and I mean really, really crazy — we’ve been through basically the entire cycle of the Pac-16 / Big 12 drama, except with the mid-majors, and in the course of like 12 hours instead of a week-plus. Absolutely insane. I don’t know how it will all shake out, but I just want to submit my opinion that, from a football competitive (not financial) perspective, if the goal is to reach BCS bowls, the notion of BYU becoming an independent is wolf-face crazy — the kind of decision you make when you are drunk, and on cocaine, and on deadline, and on fire.

Allow me to explain. (And yes, I know Mormons don’t drink or do cocaine. All the more reason why this is a crazy idea!)

Under the current rules, the highest-ranked champion of a “non-BCS” (or non-AQ) conference gets an automatic “at-large” BCS bid, if they’re ranked in the top 12 (or in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champ). Recent years have demonstrated that there will nearly always be such a team. First off, basically any unbeaten team, from any mid-major conference, with any schedule, will be in position by season’s end. Hawaii, which was manifestly not an elite team, having played a simply awful schedule, nevertheless was ranked highly enough to reach a BCS bowl in 2007-08. Likewise, the next year, 12-0 MAC West champ Ball State would’ve been a BCS auto-qualifier, despite having played nobody and proven nothing, if 1) they’d beaten Buffalo (!) in the MAC title game, and 2) there hadn’t been other non-BCS teams ahead of them. And if there isn’t an unbeaten champ to claim the mantle, there will most likely be a 1-loss champ from the MWC, or perhaps C-USA/MAC/WAC (schedule permitting), to do so. Absent that, a 2-loss MWC champ may well have a shot.* Major-conference attrition naturally causes these teams to rise into automatic qualifying position by season’s end. Bottom line, it’s highly unlikely and unusual for a season to end without a non-BCS conference champion being ranked in the top 12. Although we have a limited historical record to work from, given how drastically perceptions and rankings (and BCS formulas) have changed in recent years, I’d guess it’s a once-in-a-decade type of occurrence.

*For instance, 10-2 non-champ TCU was ranked #11 in 2008. Likewise, 10-2 non-champ BYU was ranked #14 in 2009, finishing out of the top 12 only because of Boise State and TCU being ahead of it. You laugh, but history suggests a 2-loss MWC champ will have an excellent shot at the top 12 if there are no other mid-major contenders, depending on the timing and nature of the losses (and wins). And a 1-loss MWC champ is a shoo-in.

If BYU were to stay in the Mountain West, it could routinely be that undefeated, 1-loss or even 2-loss MWC champ with a clear path to an automatic BCS invite. By going independent, it loses that auto-bid path. And what does it get instead? Well, um, nothing, actually.

Y’see, independents not named Notre Dame are not guaranteed a BCS spot by finishing in the top 12, or the top 8, or even the top 4. The only way they can earn an auto bid is by finishing in the top 2, and going to the title game! Otherwise, if they’re in the top 14, they’re eligible for an at-large, but nobody can force the bowls to take them. Up until now, this applied only to Army, Navy and Western Kentucky, so it wasn’t really an issue (although, watch out for those Midshipmen this year!). But if BYU goes indy, it’ll become a much bigger deal. BYU could finish #3 in the BCS, yet not be guaranteed a spot. (Gee, who do you think the Orange Bowl is gonna take? #3 BYU or #8 Ohio State? Or, hell, #13 Notre Dame?)

But surely, you say, some BCS bowl is likely to take pity on a highly ranked Cougars team, and pick them voluntarily. Not so fast, my friend! Sure, an undefeated, #3-ranked Cougars team is an extreme example, and would very probably end up in a BCS bowl, one way or another. But what about a #5-ranked squad? #6? #7? If they were still in the Mountain West, such a team would be guaranteed a spot. As an independent? Well…

First of all, given the de facto “mid-major auto bid” just discussed, there are effectively only 3 “true” at-large spots, and we all know the SEC runner-up has first dibs on one of them, and some random Big Ten team gets the other, leaving only one left. Okay, that won’t be true every year, but the point is, there’s a limited number of spots, and a lot of teams competing for them. If Brian Kelly can lead Notre Dame back to prominence, and more specifically to consistent top 14 finishes, that’s one more BCS spot gone each year. (The irony of the “Notre Dame Rule” is that the Irish are the one team in America who don’t need a special rule — if they’re BCS-eligible, they’re going, “auto bid” or not, because the bowls unformly want them.)

Furthermore, most importantly, BYU won’t just be trying to convince the bowls to take them — over, say, a Florida or an Iowa or a Notre Dame — despite their “mid-major” status. They’ll be trying to convince the bowls to take them as the second mid-major team in a BCS bowl, a la Boise State last year. The Broncos, remember, got an invite alongside auto-qualifier TCU only because of an unusual sequence of events, including a USC collapse, a late Okie State loss, a glut of highly-ranked SEC and Big Ten teams, etc., which resulted in there being no other attractive options for the bowls to select as at-large teams. Boise, in other words, got into the BCS basically by default, not because the bowls were just desperate to roll out the red carpet for a second mid-major. Yet BYU will be hoping to repeat the Broncos’ feat virtually every single year, because there will nearly always be an automatically qualifying mid-major conference champion — and that team will, of course, never be BYU, if the Cougars are independent.

Do you really think the Fiesta Bowl wants to stage BYU-TCU or BYU-Boise every other year? Do you think the Orange Bowl, given a choice between the Cougars and, say, at-large Penn State, is honestly going to pick BYU? Do you think the Sugar Bowl is going to pass up an SEC or Big 12 team to bring a bunch of Mormons to Bourbon Street? In exactly what universe is BYU going to frequently be an attractive choice to the bowls, despite being 1) eligible but non-mandatory, and 2) the second mid-major in the field?

Really, there are only two ways this move can make sense for BYU, from a BCS perspective. Either they think that they can convince the BCS powers-that-be to re-write the “Notre Dame Rule” as a “Notre Dame and BYU Rule,” or simply an “Independents Rule.” (It actually used to be an “Independents Rule” — encompassing, theoretically, Navy and Army as well — when it was top 6, but then it became exclusively a “Notre Dame Rule” when the criteria changed to top 8.) Or they think they can transcend the mid-major label entirely by becoming the Notre Dame of the West. Uh, yeah, good luck with that.

Personally, I’m hoping BYU stays put in the Mountain West. While I feel for my WAC-y Twitter friends whose basketball conference is being destroyed, a Mountain West with BYU, Boise, TCU, Fresno, Nevada, Air Force, and perhaps Houston (plus the five dwarves), would be a damn good football league. It might not earn official AQ status, but it might not need to: any undefeated champion of that league would get a BCS berth, and any one-loss champion would be in very good position to do so as well. Heck, some years, a two-loss champ might sneak in, as I mentioned earlier — depending on the nature and timing of the losses, the situation in other non-AQ leagues, and the number of stray 2- and 3- and highly regarded 4-loss major-conference teams. By contrast, a BYU-less MWC would be weaker, while at the same time, BYU will be in tougher shape as an indy, and the WAC will be irrelevant anyway. Mid-majordom as a whole, at least on the football side of things, is better off if BYU stays put.