Desert News blogger Jared Eborn says that a source has informed him that talks between BYU and the WAC continue and that ESPN is still involved.
BYU is apparently still commited to independence (which would jive with why they haven’t declared that they are staying in the Mountain West yet) and that the WAC is still a viable landing spot ESPECIALLY if they can land a few members with the help of the stormin Mormons and some assurances from ESPN. Not only is there talk of reaching out to Conference USA schools, but some Mountain West schools as well. It’s doubtful that conference leaders like TCU or recent WAC defectees Boise State, Nevada or Fresno State would jump back to the WAC, but Eborn mentions MWC bottom feeders New Mexico and Colorado State, along with Wyoming and Air Force as potential targets.
Such a scenario could end up helping the Mountain West. Shedding dead weight like New Mexico, or the decent Wyoming team that brings in little TV-wise, could help the Mountain West increase its perception as a potential BCS league, particuarly if they can pick up teams like Houston and UTEP from Conference USA to move back up to 10 teams.
As I’ve said before, I think it makes sense for New Mexico to pair with its in-state rival (just as Nevada and UNLV are now paired in the MWC). Pick up the Lobos plus one more school, and the WAC is back to a safe 8 teams in football, and 9 with BYU in all other sports.
BYU + New Mexico + Utah State … that’d be a solid basketball league. The WAC would be taking a major step down in football, trading Boise/Fresno/Nevada for NM/USU, but a major step up in basketball. If they can lure UTEP from C-USA to get to 10 teams, that’s even more true.
I just hope the MWC keeps Air Force. If BYU really does leave, along with Utah’s departure, that’s a major body blow to the MWC’s top tier of football teams. To avoid being perceived as Last Year’s Fiesta Bowl And An Undetermined Number Of Dwarfs, they need a solid middle tier. Air Force, Fresno, Nevada and maybe Houston would provide them with that tier, and losing dead weight at the bottom would, as you say, be helpful. New Mexico, CSU or Wyoming would all be acceptable teams to shed. But not Air Force. That’s a solid team, and the MWC needs them.
“Old” Mountain West
TOP TIER
Utah
BYU
TCU
MIDDLE TIER
Air Force
BOTTOM TIER
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
UNLV*
Wyoming
*you could make a case for the Rebels as middle tier, I guess, but I’m not sure they’ve quite earned that in football
“New” Mountain West
TOP TIER
Boise State
TCU
MIDDLE TIER
Air Force
Nevada
Fresno State
Houston?
SMU or Tulsa?
BOTTOM TIER
Colorado State
San Diego State
UNLV*
Public perception tends to be obsessed with the top tier — hence the SEC being described as “the best league from top to bottom” when what people really mean is, “wow, they’ve got a bunch of top 25 teams,” and no one actually looks at the middle or bottom — so that league would be perceived as weaker than the old MWC, but I actually think it might be stronger, and more difficult to get through undefeated.
I think a league with Boise State, TCU, Houston, Fresno State, Nevada and Air Force is more competitive and BCS worthy than the Big East and possibly on par with the ACC.
Now that doesn’t mean that the powers that be will see it that way, but I would hope they could build an image.
If BYU were still in the league, along with the mentioned teams, I’d agree with you, at least as to the Big East. Not sure about the ACC — that conference is deceptively strong in the middle. A lot of parity, much like the Pac-10, except the ACC doesn’t have a USC. It’s like the other 9 teams in the Pac-10, except there are 12 of ’em. 🙂 But the point is, they tend to beat each other up and nobody emerges as dominant.
Anyway, without BYU, I don’t know if the above-mentioned lineup of teams surpasses the Big East, though I think it’s competitive. Likely a rung below the ACC. Of course, if some of those “middle tier” teams can use MWC membership as a springboard to better recruits, a BCS trip, etc., then things can change.