No, Earl is not the NYC Nightmare Storm (but it could be a big deal for somebody)

[Cross-posted from Sullivan’s Travellers.]

First, please accept my apologies, anyone who’s been looking here for hurricane updates. I’ve been derelict in my storm-watching duties — indeed, I don’t know if there’s ever been a time in the last 20 years when I’ve paid this little attention to a major hurricane in the Atlantic, never mind one that’s a possible threat to New England! But I’ve just been very, very busy with work and my girls, and to make matters worse, today I was diagnosed with a case of mild iritis, the treatment of which makes it periodically almost impossible to look at a computer screen.

But enough about me. Hurricane Earl strengthened to a Category 4 monster today, and for a while, there seemed to be some chatter about possible intensification to Cat. 5 over the near-record-warm waters that it’s traversing with very little wind shear (though the NHC’s latest discussion says the intensity seems to have “leveled off,” and atmospheric conditions are shortly expected to become marginally less perfect for intensification). Meanwhile the forecast track has Earl passing, as Drudge has been blaring all day, “Dangerously Close to East Coast.” This has led a few folks to ask me whether this is the potential New York City nightmare-scenario hurricane that we’ve heard a bit about in recent years.

The short answer is: No. The worst-case NYC hurricane would approach New York Harbor from the southeast, moving NNW or NW into North Jersey, perhaps mercifully ridding America of the cast of “Jersey Shore,” but also catastrophically flooding Manhattan in the process, by bringing the storm’s deadly “right-front quadrant” over the Harbor and the City. And this could happen with little warning and minimal forecast certainty until it’s too late to act, because the hypothetical monster hurricane would be moving so fast. It’s something like a 500-year storm, and it would be an epic disaster. Thankfully, it’s almost certainly not this storm.

As you can see above, the forecast models diverge on exactly where Earl will go, with a few (including the HWRF, a pretty good model) predicting a direct hit on Cape Cod. But they all predict a NNE or NE movement at closest approach to the New England/New York area. Nobody thinks this storm will be moving due north, nevermind NNW or NW, by the time it reaches that latitude. That’s usually how it is with hurricanes north of Hatteras, and it’s why the NYC scenario is such an outlier (albeit one that will happen eventually, given enough time).

Now, don’t get me wrong, Earl most definitely bears watching, for everyone from the Carolinas to Maine. It could be a pretty big deal, even a disaster, for somebody (though the odds are better that it will be a “fish,” at least for the U.S. — Nova Scotia stands a good chance of getting whalloped). But the worst-case scenario is probably either a direct hit on North Carolina or a Hurricane Gloria redux. Neither the 1938 “Long Island Express” scenario, nor the hypothetical NYC nightmare scenario, appear to be in play.