Earl update: Hurricane Warnings up, New England not yet in the clear

Did I speak too soon? The computer model forecast tracks for Hurricane Earl, which had been trending east (and away from a New England threat), trended ever-so-slightly back west overnight. That “crucial 40° N 70° W marker” I mentioned? It’s now in the crosshairs of the official NHC track and the model consensus. And get a load of the GFNI:

Granted, the GFNI isn’t one of the major computer models, and it’s clearly a western outlier, just as the BAMM and BAMS are eastern outliers. (And, FWIW, even the GFNI’s prediction still isn’t the NYC nightmare scenario — wrong angle of approach, wrong side of the eyewall.) [UPDATE: Meteorologist and weatherblogger Charles Fenwick provides additional insight into why we shouldn’t pay much attention to any of the “outliers” in this case. Excluding them, the model consensus is really quite tight. Fenwick says, “Given that the turn point is only 48 hours out and the model forecasts were enhanced with upper-air observations from the Gulfstream IV, the prognosis should be in good shape.”]

Regardless, it’s clear that New England — particularly Cape Cod and the Islands — aren’t “out of the woods” yet, as they say. And the North Carolina Outer Banks remain very much at risk. The reality is, this storm needs to make a series of “turns” over the next several days — from NW to NNW, from NNW to N, from N to NNE — and until we see those turns actually happen, we can’t be certain of where it will end up. Small wobbles, or minor changes in turns’ timing, can have big consequences down the road. Bob (The Usual Suspect) got it right in comments yesterday:

From my on-site experience, I know that major storms can be exhilarating and devastating, but most of all, they’re often unpredictable. Anybody who COULD be in the path of a storm 48 hours away, best to get prepared.

The models are models. The storm is existential.

Indeed. Keep a weather eye on the forecasts, and if you’re in the cone of uncertainty, assume you’ll be dealing with a landfalling hurricane — by Friday morning in North Carolina’s case, by Friday night in New England’s case — and make preparations accordingly, even if the odds are that Earl’s heaviest weather will remain out at sea.

Hurricane Warnings are likely to be posted for the Outer Banks in a few minutes. If you’re there, take them seriously.

P.S. Meanwhile, our tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, “98L,” now has an 80% chance of becoming T.D. 9 or Tropical Storm Gaston in the next 48 hours.

UPDATE: Here’s what the 11:00 AM EDT discussion has to say about Earl’s expected turns:

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD…AND LATER TODAY…EARL SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO…THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS…WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A EARL…A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

Specifically, a Hurricane Warning is up from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border (including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds). Southward from Bogue Inlet to Cape Fear, NC, there’s a Tropical Storm Warning, and northward from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, Delaware, there’s a Hurricane Watch.

P.P.S. Oh… and T.D. 9 has officially formed. The forecast track implies that we could be talking about it for a while. (Though the forecast is very uncertain, as some of the computer models do not even acknowledge yet that the depression exists.)

[Cross-posted from Sullivan’s Travelers.]