It looks like Jim Cantore may have picked the wrong Cape. The official NHC forecast now calls for Hurricane Earl to pass closer to Cape Cod and the Islands than to Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks, thanks to a gradual leftward shift over the last several advisories, and most recently, an overnight lurch in the computer models:
AFTER 48 HR…THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT…BUT STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
The storm is forecast to be just off the Cape at 48 hours, so actually, the primary effect of the overnight model shift is that, after swiping (or hitting) Cape Cod, Earl is now expected to make landfall near the Maine-New Brunswick border, instead of in Nova Scotia — and if “guidance envelope” stays as it is now, the forecast can be expected to shift further west and call for a landfall in Maine.