No longer a “MONSTER,” and leaving behind a trail of inconvenience rather than destruction, Hurricane Earl is now a weakening Category 1 storm traversing ever-colder waters en route to a second U.S. “sideswipe” tonight, landfall as a tropical storm in Canada, and then, extratropical oblivion. Here’s a look at both Earl and the trough of low pressure (i.e., cold front) that’s keeping him just off the coast and pushing him out to sea:
Those who prepared for the worst in North Carolina were right to do so — but, as expected, the worst did not occur:
There’s minor flooding in several coastal counties, and hundreds were without power. But the storm was far more tame than feared.
“We dodged the bullet,” Gov. Bev Perdue said this morning. Perdue said there are initial reports of flooding in Ocracoke and Hatteras on the Outer Banks, “but a good Northeaster would have done the same thing.”
Dr. Jeff Masters concurs with the governor’s assessment: “Overall, aside from some significant beach erosion, Earl spared North Carolina.” More here.
Now, a weakened Earl — 85 mph and falling — is heading NNE (30 degrees) toward New England and Atlantic Canada. The center is expected to pass roughly 25 miles east of Nantucket and 50 miles east of Cape Cod in the hours just after midnight tonight. Earl is forecast to still be a minimal hurricane at that point (although, color me skeptical that he will only shed another 10 mph of wind speed in the next 12 hours). But even if the storm is technically a hurricane at closest approach to Massachusetts, it’s unlikely to produce hurricane-like conditions on shore, as Dr. Masters explains:
[A]t 9:30am this morning…the winds on the weak left side of the storm were about 15 mph less than the winds in the powerful right front quadrant. Assuming Earl maintains this structure for the next day, we can expect the hurricane will have top winds of 75 mph on its strong southeast side over water when it whips by Southeast Massachusetts early Saturday morning, and winds of 55 – 60 mph in its northwest eyewall, closest to Massachusetts. If Cape Cod and Nantucket barely miss Earl’s northwest eyewall, as currently forecast, top winds in those locations might only reach 45 – 50 mph.
Earl will be a tropical storm, heading toward extratropical status, by the time it reaches Nova Scotia, where riding out mild galestorms is a way of life. Nothing to write home about. And then, Goodbye, Earl.
[Cross-posted at Sullivan’s Travellers.]
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Let’s talk about what really matters: will my 8:00 pm flight out of JFK be in jeopardy?
Thanks for your hurricane updates, Brendan. You are a comfort to me as I am awaiting the storm on Martha’s Vineyard.
I am awaiting the storm on Martha’s Vineyard.
Get the Hell out! 🙂 Just kidding. Do whatever the relevant local officials are telling you to do. I would assume that you’re in minimal danger if you aren’t on the immediate shoreline. The only real problem would be if Earl takes a (pretty unlikely at this point) leftward jog and the right-front quadrant comes over the island, but even then, the winds will be Category 1 strength at most, so the waves figure to be the primary issue.
will my 8:00 pm flight out of JFK be in jeopardy?
Honestly? I have no idea. I wouldn’t think JFK will have much more than a blustery night with some rain showers, but I don’t know what the threshhold is for airlines to start delaying and cancelling flights.
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Up here in central CT, far from our shattered southeastern coastline :), we managed to make it through the night whilst enduring Several sprinkles of soft rain & sustained winds of 3 mph, gusting to 6.
:>
PS: thanks for your excellent Earl reportage. Really. / Especially in light (sometimes a painful light, I gather) of your Own
evil creepyEyeball issues. How ya doon with that? No eyewall Replacement cycles, we trust. ;]PPS: The Hartford Courant’s lede (emphases added) —
“As Hurricane Earl approached New England Friday night, it didn’t live up to its name and was downgraded at about 10:30 p.m. to a tropical storm.”
Well yes but what exactly is required, of a man or a cyclone, to Live Up to the name, “Earl”? ;>
(Yeah, yeah, it means ‘live up to its name, Hurricane‘. But that’s not its Name; that is [or was] its Descriptor. Its Name is Earl. / Hm. Now maybe There’s a clue how to Live Up to it. 🙂