That’s a big jump. #GOPPANIC? RT @RasmussenPoll: Balance of Power: Pennsylvania Moves From Solid GOP to Toss-Up… http://tinyurl.com/RR2228
That’s a big jump. #GOPPANIC? RT @RasmussenPoll: Balance of Power: Pennsylvania Moves From Solid GOP to Toss-Up… http://tinyurl.com/RR2228
The polls are moving exactly as how I’d expect them to over the last few weeks. Before Labor Day, the polls are going to show stronger numbers for the GOP / non-incumbents. As we get closer to the election, most of the disenchanted liberals and Democrats who were previously withholding their support for the incumbent / Dem candidate, will start coming around, and the numbers will show an uptick in support for the Dem / incumbent. Then, assuming the enthusiasm gaps hold, we’ll see that momentum disappear and the gap widen yet again in the final tallies, unless the Dems pull off a well-above average GOTV job. If the enthusiasm gap narrows and the Dems put forth a really strong GOTV effort, those numbers may hold and the Dems may save a few seats they otherwise probably are going to lose.
Problem is, if I was a betting man, I’d bet on the enthusiasm gap to hold or narrow only very slightly, and I don’t think the union-driven GOTV effort will be nearly as effective as what the Dems accomplished in 2004, 2006, or 2008.