“Arguably the best Boise team ever could just as easily be in the BCS title game or facing Ohio in the Humanitarian Bowl” http://is.gd/gQaiu
“Arguably the best Boise team ever could just as easily be in the BCS title game or facing Ohio in the Humanitarian Bowl” http://is.gd/gQaiu
My dream outcome:
– TCU or Boise State in a close win over Oregon for the national title
– [the other mid-major] wiping the floor with a one-loss, SEC champ Auburn in the Sugar Bowl
Add to that, AP voting the winner of the Sugar Bowl, lets say TCU, #1 because they were ranked 2nd in AP going into BCS games. Split national titles for the mid-majors.
The AP scenario won’t happen if Oregon and Auburn win out, since they’re #1 and #2 in the AP. It would require something like Auburn losing to Bama, then winning the SEC title, and AP voters keeping TCU #2 but Auburn sneaking into the title game ahead of the Frogs. Even that, though, probably wouldn’t do the trick, as I suspect it’d be quite close between TCU and Auburn in the polls, and the voters would be pretty impressed with a win over #1 Oregon in the title game. It would really probably require some sort of Armageddon, with TCU ranked #1 in a close race with, say, 1-loss Oregon, 1-loss Auburn (title game loss, not loss to Bama), 1-loss LSU, 1-loss Nebraska, and unbeaten Boise State, so it’s a complete clusterf*** at the top, with perhaps different orders in the different polls, and TCU somehow ends up #3 in the BCS but #1 in the AP. In that case, because they were not just #2 but #1, I could see the AP voters “pulling a USC” and keeping them #1, especially if it’s via a Sugar Bowl win over an LSU or Auburn team that’s also top 5.
Um, Brendan, it could easily happen. Also, you’re forgetting — it’s not the ranking that counts, it is the point totals behind the rankings that get factored in.
So, let’s say Oregon goes undefeated, while Auburn loses a close one to Bama, but turns around and dominates the SEC championship game. Let’s say the order in the AP is 1. Oregon, 2. Boise St, 3. TCU, 4. Auburn, the order in the Coaches and Harris polls is 1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. BSU (really, the order here doesn’t matter if Oregon is the clear #1 and the points are very, very close for the next three). Now let’s assume the computers put it at 1. Oregon, 2. TCU, 3. Boise St, 4. Auburn, and the BCS mirrors the computers (erasing the close vote totals in the human polls as a consequential factor). So, we have Oregon vs. TCU in the title game, and Auburn vs. Boise State in the Sugar Bowl. TCU battles out a close, by-a-late-FG win over Oregon, while Boise State shuts down Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton and makes the Auburn defense look foolish. The AP now drops Oregon to #3, Boise State moves up and becomes the AP champ, while TCU takes home the crystal hardware.
Um, AML, I said “The AP scenario won’t happen if Oregon and Auburn win out.” Your scenario starts with Auburn losing. How are our analyses inconsistent? And no, I’m not forgetting that it’s the points, not the rankings, that matter. That’s one of the great inconsistencies of the BCS formula, as that’s true of polls, but not of computers. And it’s precisely why I posited that the best way for this to happen is a “clusterf*** at the top” in which the voters are confused about what to do and there are “perhaps different orders in the different polls.”
The problem with your simpler scenario is, Boise is already ahead of TCU in the AP poll by 25 points, which is basically half of a “full” one-spot margin (if everyone was voting them unanimously one spot higher). That’s fairly close but not squeaky-close, and I see little likelihood of Boise turning it around, unless TCU barely squeaks by New Mexico or something. So, if, under your scenario, TCU goes into its title-game matchup with Oregon #2 in the BCS and #2 in the AP, with a month-plus for everyone to forget all the controversy about #3 Boise, I see no likelihood of the AP leapfrogging Boise ahead of TCU based on a solid win over #4 Auburn if TCU has any kind of win, even a close win, over #1 Oregon. It just doesn’t work that way. Boise would get a fair number of first-place votes, but not enough to finish #1, because TCU game in ranked #2 and beat the #1 team, end of discussion.
I think we’re starting to talk past each other here, so let me recap and go down the issues one by one:
1. I posited a “dream scenario” of both mid-majors splitting the title, and David K went one step further by specifying how that would happen — with one mid-major being ranked #2 in the AP and winning the Sugar Bowl. Your response was,
Neither David nor myself made any attempt to dispute the reality of who is currently #1 and #2 in the AP poll, and how things would inevitably shake out if they played each other for the title; you flat-out changed the subject to bring up something that didn’t need to even be discussed because it was a foregone conclusion. Then you went on to posit and poopoo on a complicated, convoluted scenario that sort of represented what David and I said we’d like to see, but was hardly the simplest, most straightforward, most realistic scenario. This led my interpreting your comment as repudiation that our “dream scenario” was either possible or likely. Hence my rebuke that, yes of course it could easily happen.
2. Your description of your “clusterf*** at the top” scenario in #3 did not in any way indicate you were going by the points behind the human polls vs. the poll positions. You merely referenced “different orders in the different polls” being sufficient to, for instance, leave TCU #1 in the AP but #3 in the BCS.
3. There is no problem with my simpler scenario. The current and future poll positions (and the point totals behind them) of Boise St. vs. TCU are irrelevant.
Just think of my scenario through the prism of talking about “Mid-Major Team A” and “Mid-Major Team B”. So long as Mid-Major Team A is ranked #2 in the AP, but #3 or #4 in the BCS (and thus ends up in the Sugar Bowl), and Mid-Major Team B is ranked #3 or #4 in the AP, but #1 or #2 in the BCS (and thus ends up in the BCS Championship), my scenario holds. You can continue to throw out straw-man scenarios with specific point counts and poll positions to shoot down, but I don’t see how the fundamental logic of what I am saying isn’t simple and/or doesn’t hold.
I’ll cop to misunderstanding some portions of the “dream scenario” originally, so some of my statements may not have made much sense. However…
So long as Mid-Major Team A is ranked #2 in the AP, but #3 or #4 in the BCS (and thus ends up in the Sugar Bowl), and Mid-Major Team B is ranked #3 or #4 in the AP, but #1 or #2 in the BCS (and thus ends up in the BCS Championship), my scenario holds.
Right, but this isn’t going to happen, because “Mid-Major Team A” is going to be TCU, in the sense that the WILL be ahead of Boise in the AP (they already are, pretty solidly, and there’s no reason to believe half the voters will change their minds based on Boise beating Nevada), and yet TCU is NOT going to end up #3 or #4 in the BCS while Boise rises to #1 or #2, because the coaches and Harris voters aren’t going to have a magical change of heart about Boise vs. TCU any more than the AP voters are, and Boise’s eventual computer edge over TCU (per Jerry Palm) isn’t going to be huge, so it just isn’t going to be able to overcome the poll gap….. unless things get really really chaotic with voting patterns, as in my “clusterf***” at the top” scenario, in which case, who knows. But your simpler scenario just is not going to produce the result you want. I’m confident that TCU is going to be ahead of Boise across the board, based on their current polling lead, barring something ridiculous like almost losing to New Mexico, or barring a truly chaotic situation in the polls.
If Virginia Tech wins the ACC and Boise State slaughters Nevada, I can see that gap narrowing considerably. Especially if Oregon State takes the Ducks to the wire before succumbing by a very close margin.
TCU got a big boost this week because of the hyped, ESPN GameDay atmosphere of their showdown against Utah. They won’t get any credit for beating a much-improved SDSU team, and they finish with a whimper against lowly New Mexico. Boise State has three Friday nights to themselves, and they finish their season a week later than TCU, so they certainly have a chance.
If you look at the ballots using pollspeak.com, here are the differences between TCU’s and Boise State’s AP poll positions from Week 10 to Week 11:
– TCU up 3 spots on Boise State: 1 ballot Week 10, 1 ballot Week 11
– TCU up 2 spots on Boise State: 5 ballots Week 10, 10 ballot Week 11
– TCU up 1 spots on Boise State: 6 ballots Week 10, 32 ballot Week 11
– Boise State up 1 spot on TCU: 30 ballots Week 10, 7 ballots Week 11
– Boise State up 2 spot on TCU: 13 ballots Week 10, 7 ballots Week 11
– Boise State up 3 spot on TCU: 4 ballots Week 10, 3 ballots Week 11
That’s a ton of volatility given that none of the Top 4 teams lost, so I wouldn’t count out Boise State recouping some of those lost media votes — especially if the Broncos throttle Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, while TCU barely edges Oregon in the BCS Championship.