Can Pioneers avoid an 0-3 start?

Late last night, Denver lost its second straight game at historic, soon-to-be-replaced Mac Court, to BTI Tournament host Oregon, 68-56. It was a frustrating game, one that DU led 32-28 at halftime and 43-41 around the midway point of the second half — only to succumb to turnovers, missed opportunities, foul trouble, and a seemingly endless parade of Ducks going to the free-throw line.

The radio voice of the Pioneers, Sun Belt Broadcaster of the Year Mitch Hyder, clearly felt it was a home-job by the refs — a classic “8 on 5” game, as Kyle Whelliston would put it — and made that abundantly clear in his commentary on Mile High Sports Radio. Denver’s SID for basketball, Mike Kennedy, seems not to have entirely disagreed, judging by his lede in the school’s official article about the game (“Oregon capitalized on second half free throw opportunities”). And although Coach Joe Scott didn’t mention the refs in post-game interviews, he did get a technical foul late in the second half for arguing one of the many calls that went against the Pioneers.

Whatever frustration he may have felt, Scott stayed positive after the game, saying: “We’re extremely disappointed in the short-term results… but we’re certainly not discouraged, at all.” Indeed, he said, he’s actually “encouraged” by the improvement he saw between Friday’s loss to UCSB and Saturday’s loss to Oregon, even though the final margins were quite similar. Scott clearly felt that Denver was much closer to playing a complete game against the Ducks, even if the scoreboard — thanks in part, perhaps, to those referees — didn’t necessarily reflect that.

In any case, it seems to me that today’s game against North Dakota State (tip-off at 4:30 PM Mountain Time) now becomes pretty important. Before this season-opening Oregon trip, Scott refused to discuss how many games he hoped the Pioneers would win (though he allowed that he might have some private thoughts about the topic: “I don’t want to deal in, ‘Is it going to be one [win], is it going to be two, is it going to be three’ … I might say that stuff to myself”). But it’s clear that a 0-3 start would be a disappointment — the worst-case scenario, by definition — and it would hang over the Pioneers for the better part of a week, as they don’t play again until Thursday night, when they host Colorado State in their home opener.

Worse, that CSU game is no gimme: the Rams are picked to finish in the middle of the Mountain West pack, and could challenge DU’s 15-game home winning streak. Thus, to avoid the possible specter of an 0-4 start, with all the potential for lost confidence and #PANIC that that might entail, Denver really needs to win tonight, or so it seems to me. (Denver’s fifth game, at home vs. bad SWAC team Alcorn State a week from Wednesday, probably represents something of a “firewall” against a total season-opening meltdown. But obviously Coach Scott and the Pioneers can’t want it to get to that point.)

On paper, North Dakota State is the team you’d have expected Denver to have the best chance to beat this weekend. The Pioneers were three-point underdogs to UC-Santa Barbara, the defending double-champion of the Big West, and six-point underdogs to Oregon, a bad Pac-10 team but still a Pac-10 team, and a homestanding Pac-10 team, at that. North Dakota State, on the other hand, is coming off a disappointing year after their breakthrough 2008-09 season, and they aren’t expected to do particularly well this year, either. The Pioneers are 3-point favorites against the Bison.

However, North Dakota State took Oregon to overtime on Friday, and defeated UCSB on Saturday. Denver lost to both by double digits. So it’s not clear to me that DU should be considered the favorite in this game. I really don’t know what to expect. But I’m hopeful the Pioneers can pull out the win, and avoid the prospect of a season-opening tailspin.

The game will be broadcast live on the radio here.