As fellow readers of The Mid-Majority know, a “Red Line Upset” happens whenever a team whose conference sits below the “Red Line” beats a team whose conference sits above it. “RLUs,” as the cool kids call them, are a central focus of TMM and its readers during November and December — there’s a Twitter account singularly devoted to tracking them, there’s a list and a tracker on the TMM homepage (we currently sit at 13 out of 130 chances), and anytime an RLU happens, or threatens to happen, members of the Mid-Majority Twitter community start busting out the phrase “Red Line Upset” with reckless abandon.
They do this even when the outcome isn’t really an upset in the traditional sense — for instance, VCU (-5.5) over Wake Forest yesterday. The thinking is that, any time a team with fewer resources beats a team with more resources, it’s an “upset” in a global, macrocosmic sense, even if the result was expected in a microcosmic, here-and-now basketball sense.
The whole concept of RLUs can get a bit controversial when the Mountain West is involved, because a lot of folks think of the MWC as a “mid-major.” But they’re above the Red Line, thanks to abundant football revenue, which means that if, say, a MWC bottom-feeder loses to a Big Sky contender — another event that happened yesterday, when Northern Colorado (-6.5) beat Wyoming — it’s an RLU, even if it doesn’t really “feel” like one. And woe betide anyone who goes with their feelings over the cold, hard financial facts:
For Christmas, I’d like one golden ticket that will allow us one magic moment. That moment is the opportunity to pour a cup of hot coffee into the lap of a sportswriter who tries to engage me in a debate (while the game’s going on) about which conferences are mid-majors and which aren’t. Just once. Without legal or karmic retribution. Our longstanding criteria eliminates the Mountain West because those schools have a bunch of money and their own TV network. Big Sky schools don’t. So when a school with a $9 million athletic budget opens up a 20-2 lead against one that spends $22 million annually, that’s impressive.
Fair enough. But what happens if, hypothetically, a school with a $24 million athletic budget beats a school with a $22 million athletic budget… but the $24M team hails from a below-the-Red-Line conference (average budget: $14M), while the $22M team hails from an above-the-Red-Line conference (average budget: $29M). Is it still okay to celebrate such an event as a Red Line Upset?
I ask because this is precisely what would occur if, knock on wood, Denver were to end its 3-game skid, extend its 15-game home winning streak, and beat Colorado State at Magness Arena tomorrow. The Pioneers have the biggest budget in the Sun Belt; the Rams, the smallest in the MWC. (The team with the second-smallest MWC budget, aforementioned Wyoming, is also on Denver’s schedule. Having lost to Oregon, these are the Pioneers’ only remaining opportunities for RLUs this year, unless they make it to postseason play.)
Is there an “exception” for this situation, or can I safely tweet “RLU ALERT!!!” if and when Denver takes a big or late lead tomorrow night? Hmm.
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The RLU is interesting. but I am always a little skeptical of the budget figures that these schools throw around. Remember, DU’s athletic budget numbers are a little skewed by DU’s private school scholarship tuition, room and board costs at $50k vs much the lower fee public universities they play. The scholarships (at all schools) are basically an internal transfer payment between the athletic dept and the university, so that also skews the real costs. Figure in that DU also has much higher travel costs than its SBC opponents due the fact it has to fly all its teams around much more since there are only 5-6 D-I schools within 400 miles of Denver