TCU:Stanford::Harry:Voldemort

Hey, look! It’s an actual blog post (not a tweet) by me (not a guestblogger) about college football (not University of Denver basketball)! WHEEE!!! And it has a nerdy, Harry Potter-themed, SAT analogy-based title!

About that title… what I mean is not that TCU is the personification of good and Stanford the personification of evil (although…), but rather that, in all likelihood, “neither can live while the other survives,” BCS-wise, between the Horned Frogs and the Drunken Trees. Which means that, contrary to David’s confident assertion that the Trees “just need to take care of business against the Beavers next weekend and odds are they are BCS bound,” I believe there is still a substantial likelihood that 11-1 Stanford will go to the Alamo Bowl. And if they don’t, then TCU gets screwed.

Allow me to explain.

There are seemingly three reasonably likely title-game pairings right now: Oregon-Auburn, Auburn-Boise, and Oregon-Boise. Although TCU is presently ahead of Boise in the BCS standings, it appears to be a fait accompli that, if Boise wins out, the Broncos will finish ahead of the Horned Frogs, due to inevitable computer-ranking changes in Boise’s favor between now and season’s end (because Boise’s last two games are against a good Nevada team and a not-terrible Utah State team, while TCU has only one remaining game, against putrid New Mexico). So, given that, let’s walk through each of these scenarios.

But first, just to avoid being repetitive… this year’s order of at-large selections (once the top 2 teams are “replaced” from their conferences’ home bowls) is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta. Because somebody’s gotta take the Big East champ, and the Fiesta Bowl goes last, the Fiesta will be taking the Big East champ. That much is 100% certain, and applies to all of these scenarios. Welcome to Glendale, Pitt/UConn/whomever.

Also, one other note. A couple of times, I refer to Virginia Tech as the ACC representative in the Orange Bowl. Obviously, the Hokies could lose the ACC title game, and somebody else would go. Since a Boise rematch isn’t in play, it doesn’t really matter. For purposes of this discussion, “Virginia Tech” equals “generic ACC champ.”

Now, on with the scenarios…

Oregon-Auburn: The Rose Bowl gets first pick, to replace Oregon. They’d love to take Stanford, but they can’t — they’re obligated by Rule 3, paragraph 2 to take Boise (if the Broncos finish ahead of TCU, which they will) in that scenario. Sugar Bowl picks next, to replace Auburn, and surely takes an at-large SEC team (as things stand now, probably LSU). Then the Sugar Bowl picks again. They could take Stanford or TCU, but they won’t, because they’ve been “stuck” with “non-traditional” teams (Hawaii, Utah, Cincinnati) the last three straight years, and are desperate to stage the sort of big-name matchup they haven’t been able to since LSU-Notre Dame in 2006-07. So they’ll take one of the Big Ten co-champions to play an SEC at-large team. That leaves the Orange Bowl with, effectively, the last at-large slot to fill. Their options? Undefeated TCU, #4 in the country in this scenario, or 1-loss Stanford, likely #5 or #6. I don’t know who they pick. But I know that whoever they don’t pick isn’t going to the BCS.

Auburn-Boise: In this scenario, the Rose Bowl has no slots to fill. Assuming Oregon didn’t lose both of its last two games (in which case Stanford would be going to Pasadena as the Pac-10 champ, not an at-large), the Rose Bowl is Oregon vs. the Big Ten champ. Sugar Bowl gets first and second pick, and just like the prior scenario, sets up an SEC at-large vs. Big Ten at-large showdown. That leaves the Orange Bowl in precisely the same position just outlined. Either they take TCU or they take Stanford. The unpicked team goes to a non-BCS bowl.

Oregon-Boise: In this scenario, the Rose Bowl eagerly snaps up Stanford with its pick. The Sugar Bowl takes a Big Ten team to play Auburn. The Orange Bowl almost certainly takes an SEC at-large, rather than TCU, to play Virginia Tech. Sorry, Frogs.

As you can see, in all three scenarios, it’s TCU or Stanford, not both.

Now… if Boise loses at Nevada on Friday (as I predicted in the preseason) or vs. Utah State on December 4, that’s a whole different story. In that scenario, TCU (assuming they beat New Mexico, which, um, they will) would be headed to either the national title game or the Rose Bowl, and Stanford would be headed to either the Rose Bowl or the Orange Bowl — I don’t think there’s an at-large candidate from the Big 12, nor certainly from the ACC or Big East, who would be more attractive to the O-Bowl than the Drunken Trees. So that’s the once case in which my “prophesy” is false, and TCU and Stanford both go.

On the other hand, what if the title game is TCU vs. Boise? Frankly, I think the chances of that happening are virtually nil — the pollsters would find a way to put another 1-loss team, most likely Auburn or Oregon, in there instead of TCU, to play #1 Boise, because nobody (not even me!) wants to see Broncos vs. Frogs, for the third straight year, for the national title. So who goes in TCU’s place? Tough to say. Heck, if Auburn and Oregon each lose twice, then conceivably, Stanford could go to the national title game! But I think Ohio State, Wisconsin or LSU (ugh) would be more likely. But having said all that, if the title game were TCU-Boise, the Sugar Bowl would be Auburn (or South Carolina) vs. a Big Ten team, the Orange Bowl would be VaTech vs. an SEC team, and Stanford would be out of luck. So the TCU-Stanford either/or dichotomy remains. OTOH, if the title game is Boise vs. a Big Ten team, a Big Ten co-champ goes to the Rose Bowl to play Oregon (assuming they only lost once), Sugar is SEC champ vs. either Stanford or TCU, and Orange Bowl is Virginia Tech vs. an SEC at-large. And if the title game is Boise vs. LSU, the Sugar Bowl is SEC at-large vs. Big Ten at-large, and the Orange Bowl is faced with the same TCU-or-Stanford choice discussed earlier.

So really, the only way both TCU and Stanford can make the BCS is if Oregon loses twice or Boise State loses. Or if Boise State is so unimpressive in victory, and TCU so impressive against New Mexico (100-0?), that the pollsters see fit to reverse themselves and the Horned Frogs gain unexpected ground and finish ahead of Boise after all. But I don’t see that happening. So, barring a Boise loss or an Oregon collapse…

Either’s BCS dreams must die at the hand of the other, for neither can live while the other survives…

P.S. In some of the wilder scenarios, where multiple teams above Stanford lose, it’s possible the Drunken Trees — if they can pass LSU in the standings, whether by the Tigers losing to Arkansas or by the pollsters, and pardon my non-Cajun French here, coming to their goddamn fucking senses and realizing that LSU is CLEARLY, BY FAR, THE WORST ONE-LOSS TEAM IN THE COUNTRY, AND THE ONLY REASON THEY’RE RANKED SO HIGH IS BECAUSE OF PURE, RANK, UTTERLY INDEFENSIBLE, SEC-ITS-A-WAR BIAS, AND THEY ARE LESS QUALIFIED TO BE RANKED IN THE TOP FIVE THAN SARAH PALIN IS TO BE PRESIDENT …. [pause, deep breath, pause] …. in that case, I say again, if Stanford passes LSU, and stays ahead of whichever tied Big Ten team doesn’t win the conference title, and thus ends up in the Top 4 and the top-ranked non-champion, the Trees could get an automatic BCS bid. But if that does indeed happen, the prophecy holds true. It just means TCU is screwed by rule instead of by virtue of a choice by the Orange or Sugar or Rose Bowls.