As I wrote in my season preview, Denver coach Joe Scott set up a non-conference schedule that was bound to result in some early losses for the Pioneers. That was part of the plan: to learn from the early missteps, and get better in time for conference play.
But there were supposed to be some wins mixed in with the losses, too.
“We obviously didn’t expect to be 0-4,” said junior guard Brian Stafford, who has been a bright spot for Denver amid its bleak start to the season, averaging 16.8 points per game, including a breakout 26-point performance against Colorado State on Thursday. “We had high expectations this year, and we still do now. We have a team that can be good, but we just haven’t played the way we need to in order to win games.”
“It’s really frustrating,” Stafford said of Denver’s inability to make layups and finish plays. The Pioneers’ offensive efficiency is a mere 0.912 points per possession, which ranks them 236th out of 345 teams in the nation — compared to 1.071 (47th in the nation) last year.
Scott sounded a bit chastened after Thursday’s loss, frustrated by a disastrous opening quartet of games that has, at least for now, taken the air out of his preseason predictions that this would be Denver’s best season yet in his four-year tenure. “I really think I got a little bit too [caught up in], ‘Hey, we’ve got a lot of guys back, and we’re gonna be OK, and we won 19 games’ — none of that stuff matters,” he said.
“Life lesson learned, for me as well as our players,” Scott said in a press conference after the season’s first three losses. “It’s not what you think. It’s not what somebody thinks you’re going to do. It’s not, ‘we think we’re going to be pretty good.’ It’s what you do out on that court, every single game. It’s who proves it… who earns it.”
Denver’s chance last Thursday to “prove it” on the court against in-state foe CSU, and in the process extend its sixth-best-in-the-nation home winning streak, fell flat after a promising start. The Pioneers jumped out to an 11-2 lead early, and the offense was clicking on all cylinders, with crisp passes and high-percentage shots leading to five scores in six possessions before the first TV timeout. But then the Rams put in Pierce Hornung as a spark off the bench, and made some defensive adjustments — “It’s hard to get used to their style,” said CSU coach Tim Miles. “It’s like a root canal.” — which paid immediate dividends. The Pioneers, quickly losing their mojo, missed some layups, committed some turnovers, allowed the Rams to score some easy baskets, and suddenly it was 11-11 … then 21-16 CSU … then 33-26. The Rams led 38-34 at the half, and after yet another sluggish start to the second half for the Pioneers, it was 48-38 with 14:51 left, then 55-41 with 11:19 to go.
In some ways, it was like the BTI Invitational all over again.
Just like in the BTI games, Denver had its opportunities. A crucial moment game with 9:15 left in the game, and the score CSU 55, DU 48. Trevor Noonan took an open three-pointer from the top of the key, which looked good when it left his hands, and would have cut the lead to 4. But the shot rattled around and out, and CSU got the rebound. The Rams brought it quickly up the court, and Adam Nigon nailed a 3 — his only points of the night, but perhaps the game’s most critical basket — to bring the CSU lead back to 10. It was effectively a 6-point swing, and Denver would not get closer than 7 the rest of the way.
DU’s offensive efficiency was actually somewhat improved Thursday from the season-opening 3-game setback in Oregon. The Pioneers broke 1 point per possession for the first time all season. (Indeed, amid all the doom-and-gloom, that statistic has improved each game: from 0.764 to 0.903 to 0.936 to 1.049.) But DU’s defensive efficiency was its worst of the season by far, as the Pioneers allowed an awful 1.235 points per possession. That happened largely because the Rams won the physical battle down low. Denver’s interior defense simply was not up to the challenge.
In Scott’s words, “They were more physical than us. It’s something we have to get better at. It wasn’t a pretty basketball game. It was kind of an ugly game, and our team has to learn how to win ugly basketball games.”
More broadly, Scott said, “We’re not playing well right now. We’re not doing a good job defensively.” Indeed, returning to those efficiency statistics (courtesy of Basketball State), DU’s defensive efficiency has declined even more steeply over its first four games than its offensive efficiency has improved: from 0.744 to 1.070 to 1.112 to 1.235.
In the opening games, the primary problem was clearly the offense. Increasingly now, the defense is Denver’s biggest concern. “I take the blame for that, and I have to do a better job coaching,” Scott said. “We are not shooting the ball well, and that’s going to happen, but we need to learn to win these ugly games and not allow the other team to shoot well, either. We did not do that tonight.”
Up next for the Pioneers, tomorrow night at Magness Arena, is Alcorn State, which I’ve referred to as a “firewall” against an 0-5 start. The Braves are 0-3, with losses of 88-56 to Texas A&M, 88-68 to Houston, and 103-48 to Purdue. Last year, they went 2-29, with an RPI of 344 out of 347 Division I teams, and this year, they were picked by SWAC coaches to finish last in what is probably the nation’s worst conference.
Put simply, Alcorn State is clearly the worst team on Denver’s non-conference schedule, and a loss tomorrow would trigger true #PANIC about the team’s prospects going forward. The specter of an 0-12 non-conference record would become a realistic worry.
More likely, the Braves will provide DU with a much-needed opportunity to work out the kinks as it heads into another difficult stretch in its demanding OOC schedule. “The challenges that Alcorn State’s going to present are, for us, right now, the same [challenges] that we faced right in the beginning of the season,” Scott said today. “We have to get good at [correcting] the weaknesses that have been exposed in those first four games.”
If Alcorn State provides something of a respite, it will be a brief one. Tomorrow’s home game is followed by a Saturday road date with 3-0 Boise State. Then, next Saturday, mid-major powerhouse Utah State comes to town. A road trip to another powerhouse, St. Mary’s, follows a week later.
Scott remains optimistic, however, about the team’s ability to improve, and to avoid losing confidence despite the poor start. “I’m not concerned at all about that with our guys,” he said of the possibility that the team would become discouraged. “Our guys — I know they’re going to stick with it. We’ve been through a lot together. Everybody in that locker room has been together for a long time. We know we can count on each other, we know we can trust each other.”
“Not to say that moments like this, and times like this, don’t challenge that assertion,” he added. “But I’m confident.”
In a certain sense, there is nothing to get too discouraged about. Denver’s primary preseason goal was to win a conference championship in the Sun Belt, and those hopes are just as intact as they were before the season began. The Pioneers are 0-0 in Sun Belt play, and will remain that way until December 30. But right now, this does not look like a championship team.
In Tuesday’s press conference, however, Scott noted that Rob Lewis’s injury, which has him on the sideline, and Trevor Noonan’s illness, which has kept him “nowhere near 100 percent,” as well as final exams — which occurred last week, due to DU’s quarter system — have played a role in the team’s early difficulties. “That’s a tough grind to get through,” he said.
Now, however, again thanks to the quarter system, the players are done with school until January, and can focus like a laser on basketball. A questioner referred to the upcoming period as a “six-week training camp to improve your team,” and Scott didn’t disagree.
“School’s over. Our guys know they’ve done well in school. That hurdle’s over with,” he said. “It couldn’t come at a better time for us. We need to improve. And our guys know what they need to improve on. … I think this time of year can be very helpful for us in that regard.”
So, hopefully, can playing Alcorn State. Tip-off is 7:00 PM tomorrow. I’ll be in Arizona for Thanksgiving, but will hopefully be able to watch live on Pioneer Vision.