I just checked my Sportacular app, and it says Denver (2-6) is a 21-point underdog tonight at Saint Mary’s (6-2).
This is the first time the Pioneers have been a double-digit ‘dog this season — Utah State was a 9.5-point favorite at Magness last week; DU beat the spread, losing by 8 — but I can’t say I’m surprised. Saint Mary’s is #1 in The Mid Majority’s State of the Other 25 rankings, and #4 in College Insider’s Mid-Major Top 25.* They also rank first in the nation in offensive efficiency (1.147 points per possession) and 11th in field-goal percentage (48.4%), and are in or near the Top 10 in a number of other offensive categories (see BBState for more). And they’ve done this against a decent schedule — 84th out of 345, per Sagarin.
It’s early, of course, but despite coaching turnover and personnel changes, the Gaels look like a legitimate contender to repeat last year’s Sweet 16 run. Their only losses are to ranked Mountain West teams BYU and San Diego State. As it happens, those were their last two games, so SMC — returning to its home court in Moraga, CA for the first time since November 23 — will be looking to end its two-game losing streak tonight against the Pioneers. On paper, it’s certainly Denver’s toughest game of the season.
In his press conference yesterday, Denver coach Joe Scott said the Pioneers’ goal will be to control the tempo. DU prefers a much slower pace, whereas SMC’s style is much quicker. “When you’re on the road, you’ve got to control the game, you’ve got to keep the crowd out of it,” Scott said. “We have a way of doing that, and this is going to be one of our first tests. … We’re going to have to control the game with our offense, and have the ball a lot.” Scott said he views the game as a primer for road games in league play: “We’ve got to be good at controlling games, and making the other team play the way we want them to play.”
Scott added: “If we can go out to Saint Mary’s and control the game and play well and keep playing better, then we…give ourselves a chance to win that way.”
Tipoff is set for 8:00 PM Mountain Time. The game will not be televised, but will be streamed live on Mile High Sports Radio. I don’t plan on doing a full live-blog, but I may post occasional tweets, which you can see on my Twitter stream.
*Note: TMM and College Insider have slightly different definitions of “mid-major.” TMM’s, of course, is based on the Red Line. Both sites exclude the Mountain West, but TMM also excludes Gonzaga (which College Insider includes), while College Insider excludes the WAC, Atlantic-10 and C-USA (which TMM includes, except for Xavier and Memphis).