North Texas @ DU: a pivot point

It’s cliché to say this, and perhaps foolhardy to do so in advance, but Saturday’s game at Magness Arena against North Texas — a team that’s beaten Denver five times in a row, dating back to February 2008 — feels very much like a potential turning point in the Pioneers’ season, for good or ill.

The Mean Green are one of the few Sun Belt teams to enjoy recent success at Magness, having won 2 of the last 3 meetings there (1 of 2 during Joe Scott’s tenure), and they are still DU’s prime competition in the West Division, despite falling to 5-3 in conference with a loss last night at Louisiana-Lafayette. On Saturday, Denver will try to bounce back from its first Sun Belt loss (a week ago, at Middle Tennessee) with what would surely be its biggest Sun Belt win of the year (surpassing the road win at Western Kentucky).

The game feels like almost a “must-win” if Denver (6-1) is going to stay in the hunt for the conference’s overall regular-season championship (and NIT autobid), what with Florida Atlantic (8-0) continuing to run all over the East Division. A loss would drop Denver to 6-2, still in first place in the West, but catching FAU would look increasingly tough, and a serious slide would begin to look quite realistic. That thing Kyle Whelliston said last week about the Pios — “With Denver, we’ve seen hot starts and flame-outs before” — would really start to sting if they lose their second straight just before heading on the road to play UALR (which took DU to overtime in their first meeting) and Arkansas State (which is a much better team than they showed in getting demolished by 38 at Magness, and will be out for revenge), followed by a return home to face Florida Atlantic. Could the Pioneers slide all the way from 6-0 to 7-4 or even 6-5? It’ll start to feel distinctly possible with a loss tomorrow. Whereas a win would keep them right in the hunt for the overall Sun Belt title, and would give them a commanding lead in the West Division.

Standings aside, the game is important because North Texas is quite simply one of the best teams, and best programs, in the Sun Belt. This season, whereas the Pioneers are 6-1 in the league but just 10-10 overall, the Mean Green are just 5-3 in conference but a gaudy 16-5 overall (albeit against a somewhat easier schedule — ranked #312 to Denver’s #260). UNT has the Sun Belt’s second-best RPI, #109, just behind #97 FAU, and well above Denver’s #232. And, as noted earlier, it’s a team that has given Denver fits in recent years. The Pioneers are 1-5 against the Mean Green under Joe Scott, including the 63-56 loss in the Sun Belt semifinals that ended DU’s season last year.

However, Scott tells The Clarion that the Pioneers aren’t out for revenge, per se: “Our team doesn’t believe in the theme of revenge. Our theme is that North Texas is the best team in our league and in order to compete for league titles, we will need to compete with them.” More:

Scott acknowledged that rebounding would be a huge factor if the Pioneers want to get to 7-1 in league play. In last season’s loss, DU was outrebounded 36-27, because NTU forward George Odufuwa dominated the glass, finishing with 16 points and 13 rebounds.

Odufuwa, now a senior, is one of the hardest players to defend in the conference and has throttled Denver in the past, according to Scott.

“Odufuwa, [Tristan] Thompson and Josh White are three of the best players in conference this season,” Scott said. “They are all seniors, and they have a ton of experience.”

To win the Pioneers will need to shut down Odufuwa, who currently averages a double-double (11.5 ppg and 10.2 rpg), which won’t be easy without senior forward Andrew Hooper.

Hooper will miss the next two weeks, and possibly more, with a concussion, according to Scott.

The Pioneers are already thin down low, being without senior forward Rob Lewis all season with a leg injury.

“He [Hooper] has been our best physical defender in the low post this season,” said Scott. “He has been a consistent fighter for us in terms of getting rebounds.”

Without Hooper and Lewis, the Pioneers will need a big performance from emerging freshman Chris Udofia, who currently leads the team in blocks and has been improving on the glass.

Denver currently ranks dead last in the entire nation in both rebounds per game and rebound percentage, so that will be a huge challenge Saturday.

Meanwhile, as Denver prepares for the crucial showdown with the Mean Green, the Pioneers have been getting quite a bit of attention this week, from a CBS Sports story on the program’s rise, to a Denver Post column about Udofia, to a Rush the Court post refencing Kyle Lewis’s personal heroics in helping resuscitate a man in medical duress on campus.

If the Pios want to keep the good press coming, though, they need to keep — or rather resume — winning. It starts tomorrow at 4:00 PM. I’ll be live-blogging, so come back here then!