With the first Pac-12 team, new member Utah, set to kick off in under two hours [FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Utes notched the first ever win by a Pac-12 team, 27-10 over Montana State], it’s time for some last-minute Pac-12 power rankings. I’ll be breaking teams down by division this season, like most other bloggers and pundits are doing. I’ll give a brief explanation for each slot. Feel free to agree or criticize in the comments.
NORTH
1. Oregon
The final Pac-10 champion and loser of last year’s BCS title game, the Ducks return 13 starters including QB Darron Thomas and Heisman hopeful RB LaMichael James. If they can avoid distraction from the off-field troubles of the season, particularly those involving agent Willie Lyles, the Ducks look to repeat much of their success from last season, assuming of course they aren’t sidelined by NCAA sanctions before season’s end.
2. Stanford
The other juggernaut of the Pac-12, Stanford’s only blemish last season was a loss in Eugene to the Ducks. The good news is the Cardinal get Oregon at home this season, and face a slate of teams that are unlikely to challenge them, aside from USC and perhaps Notre Dame. A key to the Cardinal’s success will be the performance of Heisman Trophy hopeful QB Andrew Luck, but they are also breaking in a new head coach this season after Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL. [P.S. BY BRENDAN: Stanford is also breaking in three new offensive linesmen.]
3. Washington
The Huskies rallied from a 3-6 season start to win their final 4 games of last season, including a rematch upset of Nebraska in the Dawgs’ first bowl game since 2002. The question is whether 3rd year coach Steve Sarkisian can continue to positive direction for the Huskies against another tough slate of opponents, 6 of whom had 10+ wins last season. The Huskies are breaking in a new QB, but a much improved O-Line and defense could help make up for the inexperience there. The return visit to Nebraska looms large, and the Huskies will face four of the strongest teams in the conference down the stretch (Utah, Stanford, Oregon and USC). There is little margin for error for the Huskies team hoping to return to its position as a power team in the conference and avoid a slide back into the mediocrity of the past decade.
4. Oregon State
The Beavers are one of the hardest teams to predict each year. One game they shine, the next they fizzle. They have produced some stunning upsets (just ask USC) and some inexplicable losses (just ask Washington State). Returning QB Ryan Katz and WR James Rogers will be the players to watch on an offense that returns 8 starters. On the other hand, Rogers’ past problems with injuries may limit his potential impact, and the defense is much shakier. Inexperience and size could be issues for the Beavers.
5. California
Will Jeff Tedford and the Cal bears continue to disappoint, or rebound after last year’s bowl-less season? I’m leaning towards the former. The Bears will be led by new QB Zach Maynard, who transfered from Buffalo after the 2009 season. On top of that, some changes in the offensive staff and playbook could limit the Bears versatility. Adding to the difficulty is a season played, not at home Memorial Stadium which is being renovated this year, but in San Francisco at AT&T Park, a facility they won’t even be practicing in during the week. The Bears could very likely end up in last place in the Pac-12 North by the end of the season.
6. Washington State
Cougar coach Paul Wulff may be on the hottest seat in the conference right now with an abysmal 5-32 record over the last three seasons at WSU. Anything less than a bowl berth is likely going to be the end of the line for the coach, but this could be the Cougar team to save him. QB Jeff Tuel is experienced and skilled and he has some good receivers to help him out. Washington State is helped out by a very winnable slate of games to start the season and a few more down the stretch that gives them plenty of opportunities to get the needed six wins, despite facing both Stanford and Oregon, along with newcomer Utah. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cougs reach 6 wins and a bowl by season’s end, likely finishing above both Oregon State and Cal in the process. But until they’ve proven it on the field, they get the #6 spot.
SOUTH
1. USC
Regardless of where the Trojans finish, they are still bowl-ineligible (and ineligible to compete in the inaugural Pac-12 title game) thanks to the idiocracy that is the NCAA, but USC is, as usual, loaded with talent. Games against Utah in week 2 and at Arizona State in week 4 could have huge impacts on the race for the title, even if the Trojan’s can’t officially win it. More good news is that the Trojans will skip regular thorn in the side Oregon State this season. The bad news is they face Oregon and Washington, two teams that they have had little success against in recent years, before closing out the season against UCLA.
2. Utah
Newcomer Utah will get its chance to prove it belongs and has, in my opinion, a legitimate shot at representing the Pac-12 South in the inaugural Pac-12 championship game. An ineligible USC and an ASU team being hampered by injuries provides a key opportunity for the Utes to establish a name for themselves. Getting to miss games against both Pac-12 North contenders Oregon and Stanford also plays to Utah’s advantage. A win in week two against USC in the Pac-12 opener could set the stage for a dominant season and silence Utah’s critics once and for all.
3. ASU
An early presumptive favorite to win the Pac-12 South crown, ASU has been hampered by a number of injuries to key players (QB Steven Threet is out for multiple concussions) and some distractions off the field, particularly those involving the always controversial Vontaze Burfict. However, all may not be lost for the Sun Devils. With USC out of the race, and UCLA and Colorado unlikely to pose a real threat, ASU need only finish ahead of Utah and Arizona to win the division crown, and could do so without a stellar record.
4. Arizona
The Wildcats have never been to the Rose Bowl, and the road to Pasadena has gotten just a bit harder with the switch to divisions and a championship game. While they won’t have to deal with USC as a contender for the top spot this season, they do face the Trojans early on. In fact, after their cupcake opener against Northern Arizona, the Wildcats head to Oklahoma State before returning home to host Stanford and Oregon. A 1-4 start for Mike Stoops and co. is a very real, very likely possibility. The good news is it would mean very little in terms of the race for the division championship, and even with that slow a start, if the Wildcats can keep themselves motivated, can play out down the stretch against a much more winnable slate, much like the one that allowed them to climb into the top tier of the rankings last season. An experienced QB in Nick Foles is a benefit, but the offense is overall very new, especially on the line, which could limit his ability to make plays. Really, it could go any direction for the Wildcats.
5. UCLA
Facing a seemingly do-or-die season for Slick Rick, the Bruins shook things up in the offseason with some coaching changes, including Neuheisel taking over as QB coach and hiring two new coordinators. Recently QB Kevin Prince was named the starter, a move which was not exactly met with enthusiasm, as many were hoping for star recruit Brett Hundley to take the spot. Talent-wise, the Bruins have the pieces, but it remains to be seen whether the coaching staff can inspire and utilize them to actually win games.
6. Colorado
Good news Buffs, the Dan Hawkins era is officially over and you are no longer stuck with Texas calling all the shots. Bad news Buffs, your team is breaking in a new coach, facing a whole new slate of conference foes, and looking at a big shift in offensive style. The Buffaloes return a lot of experienced players and have a chance to prove themselves in their new conference. I’m picking them for last now as a bit of an unknown quantity with a lot of question marks, but Colorado could surprise and move up the ranks. I’d be very surprised, however to see them compete for the top of the division. Simply earning a bowl berth would be a big step in the right direction.
I made a few small changes, including adding a sentence to Wazzu’s ranking to explain what I assume was your thought process in ranking them #6 despite your speculation that they might do fairly well.
Anyway, regarding Utah, if the Utes finish second behind USC in the Pac-12 South after facing a Duck-less, Farm-less schedule, and thus go to the inaugural Pac-12 title game, that alone is not going to “silence Utah’s critics once and for all.” If they could win the Pac-12 title game over Oregon or Stanford, on the other hand…..
I think Oregon wins the North, with Washington a surprise second and Stanford third. Andrew Luck is great, but they lost too much of his supporting cast.
The South is tough to predict. I expect a logjam of teams with 2 or 3 losses. I’ll go with ASU to come out on top outright. I think USC loses to ASU (the one & only Pac-10 team that never beat them under Carroll), Oregon, and either Washington or Stanford, though not both. The game at Cal is also a sneaky trap game to watch, sandwiched in between the Arizonas and Notre Dame. But anyway I bet USC goes 6-3 in the Pac-12 and 8-4 overall (I’m afraid my trip to South Bend in October will result in me witnessing their second consecutive loss to the Irish).
Oh, I forgot to pick the championship game outcome. Oregon in a close shave, subsequently vacated. 🙂
David K, would you please get off Utah’s jock. They stink, and the only reason they ever came to prominence was because they played in a nothing/nobody conference, which is what I’ve been saying all along. This year, we…er… you will finally see that Utah can’t compete in a real conference week in and week out. ASU will represent the south. Utah will finish 4th or 5th in their division. And of course, I will await you admitting what I knew all along– Utah is over-rated and undeserving.
And I forgot to pick the championship game outcome. Washington will defeat ASU in one that nobody outside of Arizona and Washington care about.
@Sandy – Let me guess, Utah’s previous success was a hoax, like the moon landing?
Besides, this is a pre-season prognostication before the first game has been played. As Brendan pointed out the south is likely to be a log-jam with NO clear favorite. I’m not saying the Utes will go undefeated (although its possible) but I think, unlike most teams in the South, they are the hardest to predict.
Contra Sandy, Utah was legit in prior years, especially in 2008, when they beat erstwhile #1 team Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. However, they don’t have as much talent this year as they did then! So while it’s certainly possible they’ll finish in the bottom half of the standings, that won’t prove they were somehow not legit in prior years. I could see Utah finishing anywhere from 1st to 4th in the Pac-12. I certainly expect them to be competitive in all or nearly all of their games, but they could easily lose a number of them. They’re not a great team this year, and it’s a tough league.
It’s a tough league, exactly… compared to the Mountain fairy division they came from. Hey, playing real teams week in and week out keeps great teams from going undefeated, forget about the quality of teams Utah put out. Yes they won 2 BCS bowls, but they went through nobody to get there, with their full team in tact and uninjured because they weren’t challenged weekly like the other BCS schools.
After this year, you’ll start to see Utah is out of their league (literally), and after 10 years you’ll agree that Utah isn’t what everyone built them up to be. Remember they were ranked up to #8 last season until they ran into “the mighty” #54 ranked Notre Dame team who totally destroyed them, their only semi-legit competition of the entire season.
Yeah because highly ranked teams NEVER lose to lower ranked teams unless they are total frauds. Like USC in 2006 when they lost to UCLA, yet still managed to thump Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Sorry Sandy, thats a BS argument. Of course there will be upsets.
But you don’t care about rational arguments, facts, and legitimate disagreement about whether or not Utah will do well or poorly this season, you just wish to troll your preconcieved opinion in front of all of us and ignore anything that contradicts it. I doubt going undefedated this season would be enough to shut you up about how “inferior” the Mountain West teams current or former are regardless of record. You are an idiot right up there with Gordon Gee.
Who cares…the Pac-12 is so old news already….I want to hear about the preseason picks for next year’s Pac-16. 🙂