T.S. Nate could threaten U.S. Gulf Coast

I’m blogging again over at Weather Nerd. Here’s an excerpt from this morning’s update on Tropical Storm Nate:

Sometimes, in the life of a tropical cyclone, there is a distinct turning point in the evolution of the track forecast, where the computer models suddenly shift toward a new and markedly different solution. When this happens, the National Hurricane Center…generally waits to see a few more model “runs” confirming the new thinking before it fully adopts the new consensus in its official forecast. This memorably happened in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina, when the models shifted early Friday morning toward a solution targeting the New Orleans area, inspiring my “New Orleans in peril” post at midday Friday…eight hours before the NHC actually adopted the track that the models had begun shifting toward almost 24 hours before. …

We may be seeing a similar turning point with Tropical Storm Nate this morning. Yesterday, this storm looked like it was bound for Mexico. But things have changed overnight. This morning, shortly before the National Hurricane Center’s 11am EDT advisory, Charles Fenwick tweeted: “In the Gulf of Mexico, there was a good consensus on Nate heading to Tampico, Mexico. This morning, though, GFDL & HWRF shifted northeast with solutions south of Louisiana and in the middle of the western Gulf of Mexico respectively.” …

The Houston Chronicle‘s Eric Berger, in a post titled “The northern Gulf of Mexico is back in play,” elaborates:

Just as it looked like the overnight models were converging on one solution for the track of Tropical Storm Nate, this morning’s models made an almost wholesale change.

Instead of an eventual westerly motion into Mexico, a number of forecast models have switched back to a more northerly movement by late this weekend, bringing Nate toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by late Sunday or Monday. …

Critically, if Nate does move northward it will cross over very warm Gulf waters, and would have several days to intensify. This raises the possibility of a major hurricane striking the New Orleans region. …

To be clear, there is no reason to panic about possible threats to specific locales. The forecast can and will change in the coming hours and days. But with the Gulf waters being so warm, and so many vulnerable spots along the coast, this is definitely a situation to watch closely.

Read the whole thing, and stay tuned to Weather Nerd for the latest.