It’s too early to be remotely certain, but Hurricane Sandy has the potential to become a big f***in’ deal for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, transitioning into an epic storm of historic proportions — not a major hurricane per se, but a monster warm-core/cold-core hybrid, possibly a “subtropical hurricane” (a category which isn’t even supposed to exist) — and slamming the region early next week with lots of rain and wind, huge storm surge and severe coastal flooding (at astronomical high tide, no less), and, on the western edge of the storm, crippling snowfall (!). It could be like a Nor’easter on steroids, a rerun of the “Perfect Storm” of 1991, or conceivably something even worse. And all of this a week before the election, with potential aftermath effects lasting well past November 6.
Here’s what the Euro model predicts for late Monday night, per WeatherBell:
Over on my Weather Nerd blog for Pajamas Media, I write:
[I]t’s worth noting that two major swing states — Virginia and New Hampshire — plus North Carolina and Pennsylvania, if you consider those genuine swing states…, and to a lesser extent Florida, could be impacted by this storm in the week before the election. Heck, the eastern part of Ohio, the swing state to end all swing states, may get some snow from it. …
[Moreover], if Sandy does strike the northeast a week before the election, and does cause massive, widespread and long-lasting power outages, as well as enormous damage to trees and such — not to mention crippling snow over the Appalachians (and maybe parts of Ohio???) — … [w]e could well see depressed voter turnout throughout the affected region, if the infrastructural damage is still being significantly felt a week later, which seems possible. That might not affect the outcome of the presidential race (unless Ohio really is hard-hit), but, as my father points out via e-mail, it could harm President Obama’s popular vote totals, if folks in Democratic strongholds — particularly New York — don’t vote because the storm’s aftermath makes it too inconvenient (and besides, they know they aren’t in a swing state, so why go to all the extra trouble?). There’s been a lot of talk about Obama winning the electoral vote but losing the popular vote, like Bush in 2000; in a worst-case scenario, Sandy’s effects could made that more likely. Sandy could also impact some key congressional races, notably the U.S. Senate battles in Connecticut and Massachusetts. …
Harold Ambler, a fellow weatherblogger…sums things up nicely. … On Twitter, Ambler adds:
Hurricane Sandy has the potential to make people forget Irene and Halloween snow from 2011. May it instead turn out to sea…
Possible effects of Hurricane Sandy:
1. SEVERE coastal erosion
2. damaging storm surge
3. flooding rains
4. crippling snows on western edge
5. people without electricity for a long time
6. voting turnout affected the next week
7. President Obama having to tend to a national emergency in the run-up to the electionI might add, “8. Mitt Romney needing to blunt harsh criticisms of President Obama in the final days of the campaign because of the perception that it’s unseemly to attack the president when he’s tending to a national emergency.” Unless of course the Obama Administration’s response is perceived as inadequate or incompetent, in which case all bets are off. Likewise, in this scenario, Obama would need to cool it with the attacks on Romney during the final week of the campaign, and with campaigning generally, in order to appear focused on addressing the national emergency. Joe Biden and perhaps Bill Clinton would probably become Obama’s major campaign-trail surrogates in such a scenario, and their message would need to be less hard-edged because of the sensitivities of the moment.
I suspect, if Sandy continues to look like a big potential problem — a “big f***ing deal,” as someone once said — we’ll soon start to see conspiracy theories suggesting that Obama will try to delay the election because of the storm. That won’t happen. But, in a worst-case scenario, Sandy and its aftermath could definitely become a big part of the story of the election.
For the latest on Sandy, stay tuned to my Twitter feed and my PJM Weather Nerd blog.
Right. Correct on all points.
And, re Turnout — to quote my eldest darling granddaughter’s favorite Preface to any statement, “Well, here’s the Thing” — the Popular Vote.
(a) Absent a regional disaster such as (potentially) Sandy, New England plus New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania & D.C. will, in the aggregate, produce a robust turnout & thus a Bigfat raw-popular-vote Majority for President Obama. Yet even now, and even with the inclusion of the impending California & Illinois landslides, people are yammering about — and polls (national vs state-by-state) are Hinting at — an Inversion, whereby Obama is re-elected while Losing the national popular vote. I.e., even with his deep-blue states voting at Full strength, Obama may not be able to offset Romney’s huge collective popular margin coming out of (1) Texas plus (2) Dixie plus (3) all the rest of his vast array of deep-red locked-in Landslide states, from Idaho to Kansas to West Virginia and most other such enlightened places in between. ;}
(b) Now reduce the Northeastern quadrant’s aggregate turnout by, oh say, 10% (15? 20??) due to extended infrastructural & elections-administrative dysfunction in the miserable aftermath of Sandy’s mighty blow. Oh, sure, Obama will still Win his effete-eastern states 😉 & their Electoral votes**, and with a big aggregate majority, probably approaching 60%. But 60% of What? Of an Anemic total, is what. Thus virtually Guaranteeing the Rpmney NPV victory which is Already quite possible even Without the assistance of Sandy’s voter-suppression efforts (which could be SO much more effective than those of — now what’s that Texas outfit’s name? oh yeah, Screw the Vote, that’s the one. :>
(c) “So what?”, you say. Well, yeah. If the Prez still Gets to 270**, what does he care? / But if the Obama Inversive Re-election occurs, with or without the Sandy Scenario, the Republicans will care. OHHH will they ever care. Yes, these faithful Constitutionalists will go Wild. This remake of the movie we all saw in 2000 will be Much more harshly rated for Profanity & Violence (albeit probably not for Nudity :). White people will be Rioting in the streets I tell yez. Smashing shop windows & looting the upscale Malls…Hm? Oh you think they’ll meekly accept the Al Gore Bloody Shirt Sauce-for-the-Gander defense? HAHAHAHAHA!
**note re “…Obama will still Win his effete-eastern states 😉 & their Electoral votes…” and “If the Prez still Gets to 270…” — Granted, In the Doomsday Sandy scenario if Philadelphia get Walloped such that its turnout is badly suppressed, well, Sic transit Pennsylvania and it’s 270, Buh-bye. ;>
Venerable Loy ! Long time, no read ! We have a lot to kvetch up on !
“Granted, In the Doomsday Sandy scenario if Philadelphia get Walloped such that its turnout is badly suppressed, well, Sic transit Pennsylvania and it’s 270, Buh-bye. ;>” – from your flying fickle fingers to the ocular abilities of the Deity, said Deity forbid that anyone actually get hurt by the *other* pestilential Sandy !
Oh – and c) if ye ain’t just projectin’ agin, m’bhoyo !
What if the storm is totally over-estimated in scope and intensity? Here we are in Boston today, school and government all on storm-holiday and nothing to show for it at noon; everyone encouraged to NOT go to work. I can’t imagine that businesses are too happy about this. And those “critical” personnel who are critical for the sake of their own salary generation must be equally aggravated.
All hail the Nanny State!
Frank … Frank … Frank …
You make it sound as though you believe that the major media are busily trying to make sure that, for the next week or so, all the news is Hurricane Sandy all the time … you make it sound as though someone wants Benghazi not to be in people’s minds for the next week or so …
You cynic, you ! Have you no faith in your elected leaders’ ethics ? Have you no faith in your journalists’ ethics ? Fie, I say !
Happy Birthday Brendan
At the risk of being animalisticaly graphic …
Hippo – Birdie – Two ewes !
Hippo – Birdie – Two ewes !
Hippo – Birdie – Deer – Brendan !
Hippo – Birdie – Two ewes !
(If I was any good with photoshop, I would have tried to do the actual graphic version)