RT @slmandel: As I wrote in the Mailbag today, Utah will contend for P10 title within 2 years. Not far off now, recruiting about to skyrocket.
RT @slmandel: As I wrote in the Mailbag today, Utah will contend for P10 title within 2 years. Not far off now, recruiting about to skyrocket.
When you say “contend”, you mean ‘they’re going to be in the Pac-10 (or whatever it’s going to be called)”? Utah will contend, just like Washington St. will contend. Utah is going to get their ass kicked all over the place when they have to play 12 BCS schools per year instead of 2 (or less). And I for one, cannot wait.
They won’t play 12 BCS teams a year, no one does that. As far as conference games go, they are certainly as good or better than WSU, Arizona, ASU, and UCLA.
Actually, Utah’s 2011 non-conference schedule includes Iowa State, Oregon, at Boise State, and at Pittsburgh. Obviously the Oregon game is no longer a non-conference game, but assuming they keep the other three games, and assuming the Pac-12 starts up in 2011, and assuming Iowa State is still in a BCS league by 2011 (heh), they would play 12 BCS teams.
Of course, they undoubtedly scheduled those teams on the assumption they’d need those teams to bulk up their strength of schedule, and it’s possible they might try to renege on a game or two now that their conference schedule won’t be providing too many “cupcake” games anymore. I don’t know what football game contracts look like, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s an “out” for situations like an unexpected conference switch.
2012 is a bit more unclear, as they have scheduled games against Washington State, at Utah State, at Colorado and Boise State. Obviously Wazzu and Colorado become conference games (or go away), so they have room to add a cupcake if they want, and Utah State is non-BCS. 2013 is the same thing, just switch the “ats.”
Anyway, Sandy’s sarcastic comment raises a good point which I haven’t thought of, which is that Utah’s switch to the Pac-12 will, fairly or not, be seen by many fans & commentators as a non-BCS “test case.” If they arrive in the Pac-12 and quickly do well, as Mandel believes, it’ll be seen as vindication for mid-major advocates like me (and Mandel). If they fall on their face in the early years, it’ll be seen as proof that the mid-major haters were right all along, and it’ll be that much harder for a future Boise or TCU or whomever to make the case for title-game inclusion.
Utah’s Mountain West ex-conference-mates may be tempted to root against them out of spite, but actually, they need to root really hard for the Utes, because the perceived legitimacy of contending mid-majors, and especially contending Mountain West teams, is — again, fairly or not — closely tied up with how Utah performs in the coming years.
Er, wait, Boise State isn’t actually a “BCS team,” is it? Oops. I’m so used to thinking of them as a top-tier opponent that I forgot that fact in analyzing the schedules.
Well, close enough. I mean, really, who are the toughest opponents on a slate that includes Oregon, Boise State, Pittsburgh and Iowa State? Pretty clearly Oregon and Boise, #1 and #2 in whatever order, with the other two lagging behind, right? Certainly Iowa State is #4. Boise is one of a handful of schools that pretty clearly transcend the BCS/non-BCS distinction. (Arguably, Iowa State transcends it in the opposite direction, but that’s another argument.)
“Obviously Wazzu and Colorado become conference games (or go away), so they have room to add a cupcake if they want”
Add a cupcake? Dropping WSU would be removing a cupcake 🙂
Heh.
Yes, if I was going to answer the question, Utah is better than UCLA, Wazzu, Arizona, and ASU. However, that doesn’t mean Utah will win all 4 of those games. USC was better than UCLA in 2007, but they still lost to them. That happens when you play a real schedule and have to focus on winning every weekend rather than getting scrimages against 7 JV teams in the Mountain West and playing 1-3 games that actually matter in the course of 19 week season.
When Utah finally enters the Pac-12 (or whatever it is), they will be an mid-upper tier program like Arizona, Oregon, Oregon St., 0 win Washington next season, and Stanford (until Harbaugh leaves). I won’t be surprised to see the Utes go 2-3 against that competition alone, and don’t forget that Upsets happen all the time when you play real competition.
(Arguably, Iowa State transcends it in the opposite direction, but that’s another argument.)
*sigh* Not you, too…
Heh. Sorry.
Utah, TCU and Boise State could beat Florida, Texas, and USC simultaneously by 3+ touch downs each IN the major schools home stadiums and the same idiots would still dismiss them. In fact they could do the same thing three weeks in a row, switching the opponents til they’d played all three of the bigs each, beat all three and those idiots STILL would say they aren’t worthy.
David K. Why not stop talking in hyphothetical make-believe ga ga and see what happens when Utah plays a real schedule. If Washington St. opts out of the Pac-10 for the WAC you can become their spokesperson for justice when Utah becomes just another member of the Pac-9… er…. pac-11.
Sandy, my delusional fellow commentor, you can’t attack me for talking about hypotheticals when you are doing the same thing. You’re projecting on how the Utes will perform, but you don’t have any way of knowing what the reality will actually be. You can guess, sure, just like I can guess what woudl happen if they are succesful. Of COURSE we will have to wait and see, thats a stupid comment to make coming from you after your above statements.
Then again you are prone to making stupid statements…