RT @AccuScore: If Boise State played a neutral-field schedule against Auburn, Oregon, TCU, MSU, Mizzou, Bama, and Utah it would win 52.8% of the time.
RT @AccuScore: If Boise State played a neutral-field schedule against Auburn, Oregon, TCU, MSU, Mizzou, Bama, and Utah it would win 52.8% of the time.
Sounds like fuzzy math. If they win 3 out of 7, that’s 42.8%. If they win 4 out of 7, that’s 57.1%. There’s no way Boise State could play that schedule and win 52.8% of its games.
PS – Yes, I know what AccuScore was trying to say, and yes, I understand their probability methodologies, and yes, I know this is Twitter. Still.
I guess that’s why they don’t call themselves AccuCommunicate.
After I RT’d this, I realized I don’t understand what it’s saying. Does it mean that, in a FiveThirtyEight-like series of, say, 1,000 projections, Boise would win all of its games 52.8% of the time? Or that it would have an average of 3.7 wins and 3.3 losses each time it plays the schedule? I guess it must be the latter, in which case I probably shouldn’t have RT’d it, as it’s not exactly helpful to my argument… though of course that’s a ridiculous schedule that nobody plays. I doubt any of those teams would be favored to win more than 60% of the time against that schedule.
Or it could also mean that if you played all those teams against each other the Broncos would be the winners of the series over half the time?
Maybe if the Broncos were forced to play a Super team of Cliff Lees modified to rock at football, they’d win 52.8% of the time.
If that’s the case, they should be able to skip over the BCS title game entirely, and just be immediately declared national champs for 2010, 2011 and 2012. #CliffLeeFacts