LRT Midterm Contest too close to call; for the moment, I’m ahead

I don’t have time to do a full analysis of scenarios, or make the standings chart pretty, so I’ll open-source it — if anybody wants to try and figure out the various scenarios, here are the full current standings, plus everyone’s picks on the uncalled or possibly recount-bound races (AK-SEN, CO-SEN, WA-SEN, CT-GOV, IL-GOV) and miscellaneous questions (the closest Senate race by %, Blumenthal’s exact margin in CT-SEN), and the still-undecided exact number of GOP seats gained in the House (for now, I’m using CNN’s “estimate” of 65).

I’ll say this: if we assume that the Democratic candidates Bennet (CO-SEN), Murray (WA-SEN), and Malloy (CT-GOV) win, as they appear posed to… we’d still have an incredibly close contest, with AK-SEN (worth 3 points) crucial, along with the the exact final number of GOP House gains (worth 1 point per seat), the question of whether Washington, Colorado or Alaska ends up being the closest Senate race (worth 2 points), and the question of whether Blumenthal’s exact margin in CT-SEN is above or below 10 percent (worth 1 point); he’s sitting at 9.995% right now! (Note: IL-GOV doesn’t matter; everybody close to the top picked Brady.) Here would be the potential standings in that Bennet/Murray/Malloy scenario, assuming the GOP House gain stays at 65. Kevin Curran would have 101 points, followed by a four-way tie at 100, with the final outcome still very much up in the air.

For the moment, I’m leading (woooo!), thanks to my apparently perfect House prediction of a 65-seat GOP gain. But again, that number is an “estimate,” which could change — and regardless, I’m likely to fall back because I picked Miller, Buck and Rossi in the three outstanding Senate races, all of whom appear to be losing (although I think Alaska is particularly unclear because of its unique write-in situation).

Presently tied for second, 3 points behind me, are @TheSplenda (who, alone among the top six contenders, picked Murkowski in Alaska and picked AK to be the closest state — and, alone among the top five, picked Bennet in Colorado) and Joe Mama (who, unlike @TheSplenda and me, picked Murray in WA, and is also the highest-ranked contestant to pick Colorado to be the closest state).

A point behind them are @MattGOP and Matthias Shapiro (@politicalmath), both of whom picked Miller, Buck and Murray. They are followed, an additional point back, by Kevin Curran (@KevinCurranX or kcatnd), who picked Miller, Bennet and Murray — the only contestant in the top six to pick both Bennet and Murray, who seem fairly likely to win.

Another five contenders, with a variety of different pick combinations, are tied a point behind Curran, and still more lurk another point or two back. So it’s very close and crowded at the top, with a lot still be decided (including also those pesky Connecticut issues). Again, full current standings here.

Meanwhile, Curran and Doug Mataconis are presently a perfect 14-for-14 in picking the Senate races. In the still-undecided contests, both have Miller (AK) and Murray (WA). In Colorado, Curran has Bennet, while Mataconis has Buck.

I’ll have more a bit later, hopefully sometime tonight, by which point perhaps a few more races will have been definitively called. I have a feeling, though, that Alaska’s chaotic race and Blumenthal’s razor’s-edge flirtation with a 10% margin (which may require me to wait for the official Statement of Vote from my dad’s old office, the Secretary of the State) may keep this contest undecided for several weeks yet.