Last night’s crushing loss to Stanford by Rachel Dulitz‘s favorite team, Virginia Tech, didn’t quite dump Dulitz from the catbird seat she’s occupied since December 26 atop the LRT Pick ’em Contest. But it made her lead precarious, and left her potentially hours from elimination.
The contest’s top four contestants — Dulitz, Randy Styles, Jeff Freeze and David K. — now all have 33 points out of a possible 48. Duiltz remains alone in first place, however, because of a tiebreaker — namely that she holds the best overall prediction record, at 20-9. But she would lose the lead, and any chance of victory, if Ohio State wins tonight.
Styles (19-10) is second, while Freeze and David K. (18-11) are tied for third. Josh Rubin (also 18-11) fell to sixth with 30 points, but remains mathematically alive to win, at least for now. John Presper a.k.a. Joe Mama (17-12), in fifth place with 31 points, cannot win.
In addition to hurting, though not yet dooming, Dulitz, Stanford’s win also made Josh Rubin’s position more precarious, while boosting the chances of Randy Styles, Jeff Freeze and David K. (the latter two of whom would have been eliminated by a Virginia Tech win). Here’s a run-down of the scenarios after tonight:
IF OHIO STATE WINS:
David K. wins if Texas A&M wins Cotton Bowl, Oregon wins title game
Jeff Freeze wins if LSU wins Cotton Bowl, Oregon wins title game
Randy Styles wins if Auburn wins title game
IF ARKANSAS WINS:
Rachel Dulitz wins if Oregon wins title game
Josh Rubin wins if Kentucky wins BBVA Compass Bowl, Auburn wins title game
Randy Styles wins if Pitt wins BBVA Compass Bowl, Auburn wins title game
So, if Ohio State beats Arkansas tonight in the Sugar Bowl, Dulitz will fall out of first place — and will be mathematically eliminated from winning the contest. Rubin will also be eliminated.
On the other hand, if Arkansas wins, Dulitz will win the pool if Oregon beats Auburn for the national title, regardless of the outcome of the other four bowls between now and next Monday. Meanwhile, Freeze and David K. would be eliminated, while Rubin would remain alive.
Randy Styles remains alive no matter what happens tonight, but his odds are better if Ohio State wins.
Full current standings are visible to contestants here (along with everyone’s picks), and visible to everyone here. Contestants can play around with “what-if” scenarios here.