Week 8 Trojan fan viewer’s guide

As I did last week, I’ve gone through tomorrow’s college football schedule and highlighted the games with major implications for USC as the Trojans try to sneak into the BCS championship game with one loss (something the majority of SI’s panel of analysts think they will accomplish).

The two biggest games, outside of the Coliseum, are at 5:00 PM Mountain Time (Iowa at Michigan State — GO SPARTANS!!!) and 6:00 PM Mountain Time (Texas at Missouri — GO TIGERS!!!). But there are a lot of others with a potential impact. Details after the jump. … [Bumped. -ed.]

10am MDT: Georgia Tech at Virginia: If Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Miami all win out, the Hurricanes probably win the BCS-based tiebreaker for the ACC Coastal Division, and, if they win the conference championship game, could threaten one-loss USC for the #2 spot in the BCS. On the other hand, if Georgia Tech loses a game, and just VT and Miami win out, the two-loss Hokies win the division by head-to-head tiebreaker, and the ACC poses no threat to the Trojans. Root for: Virginia.

10am MDT: Minnesota at Ohio State: Depending on what happens with Iowa, you could go either way on this one. On the one hand, the Buckeyes’ star is fading as a “marquee win” for the Trojans after the loss to Purdue, and a loss here would totally change perceptions of Ohio State and thus that game. On the other hand, if Ohio State tanks, Iowa sees its big “marquee game” on November 14 lose a lot of luster. I’ve anticipating that a win over Ohio State will be the trigger that convinces voters to leapfrog the the Hawkeyes over Trojans in the rankings. But, honestly, I think that happens regardless, at some point, simply because Iowa is an undefeated power-conference team. So, all things considered, I’d rather see Ohio State remain strong for purposes of BCS comparisons between USC and other, non-Iowa teams. Root for: Ohio State.

10:30am MDT: Oklahoma State at Baylor: OSU hosts Texas next week. The Trojans desperately need them to win that game (assuming Missouri doesn’t take care of the Longhorns tomorrow). So if you think a loss to Baylor would destroy OSU’s confidence heading into the Texas game, root for the Cowboys. On the other hand, if the Cowboys win this game, beat Texas, and win all the rest of their games, they’d be Big 12 champs with one loss, and could themselves pose a threat to the Trojans in the BCS. So, in theory, it’d be better if they already have two losses when they beat Texas. On the other other hand, there are so many convoluted tiebreaker scenarios at this point — with Texas, Okie State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma all with no losses or 1 loss in conference — it’s hard to know what’s the best sequence of events in the Big 12 South for USC fans. Ideally, we want a two-loss (or three-loss!) team winning the Big 12 South. But the most important thing, by far, is that Texas lose a game. Root for: your call.

1:30pm MDT: Tennessee at Alabama: A loss here by the Crimson Tide wouldn’t drop the Tide behind the Trojans in the BCS pecking order — they’d still be Pasadena-bound if they lose to the Vols, then win out — but a UT win would eliminate the ultimate nightmare scenario of a Florida-Alabama non-rematch BCS championship game. For that matter, it’d probably end the discussion of a FL-AL rematch title game, too. Root for: Tennessee.

1:30pm MDT: Louisville at Cincinnati: So long as the Bearcats remain undefeated, they’re a major threat to the Trojans. Unlike Texas and (IMHO) Iowa, they’re not guaranteed to finish ahead of one-loss USC in the BCS standings, but it’s at least a distinct possibility, if not likelihood. That said, there are much better opportunities for Cincy to lose (vs. West Virginia on November 13, at Pittsburgh on December 5 — a potential de facto Big East title game). But hey, you never know. Root for: Louisville.

1:30pm MDT: Clemson at Miami (FL): If Miami wins out, they’ll be ACC Coastal division champions, unless Virginia Tech wins out and Georgia Tech doesn’t. If the Hurricanes go to, and win, the ACC title game, they could pose a BCS threat to the Trojans. Better to avoid all the tiebreaker headaches, and the pecking-order worries, and just have the Hurricanes lose a stinkin’ game. Root for: Clemson.

1:30 pm MDT: Oregon at Washington: This is a tough one. On the one hand, we’d love for Oregon — currently #11 in the BCS, #12 in the AP — to remain a highly ranked team (maybe even Top 10, if one or two teams above them lose) when we arrive in Eugene next week, so we can get a “marquee win” over the Ducks. On the other hand, we want Washington to win as many games as possible, so that our loss to them doesn’t look so bad at season’s end. If the Huskies win out, they’d finish 8-4 and, having finished on a 5-game winning streak and played the toughest schedule in the country, would very probably be ranked by the time USC is embroiled in a possible argument about #2 in the BCS. But if they lose this game, they’d be 3-5, with a best-case scenario finish of 7-5, and a distinct possibility of finishing with a losing record. Simply put, UW needs this game; any hope of the blemish at Washington looking okay at season’s end basically dies with a Huskies loss here. So I’m inclined to root for the Huskies, because the Trojans — already at their present “ceiling” in the human rankings, just behind Texas — don’t need a “marquee” win next week nearly as much as they need UW to look good at season’s end (both to the pollsters and to the computers). Besides, due to East Coast Bias and anti-Pac-10 sentiments, a USC win over Oregon, even a Top 10 ranked Oregon, is going to be largely crowded out in the media-hype department by the simultaneous Texas @ Okie State game (assuming both teams win tomorrow). In other words, it wouldn’t be all that “marquee” anyway, perception-wise. And Oregon will still probably be ranked next week (albeit in the #20-25 range) even with a loss here. So… Root for: I say Washington, but reasonable minds can differ.

1:30pm MDT: Boston College at Notre Dame: If the Irish win out, they’ll be a BCS team, and USC’s victory in South Bend will look like a legit signature win. Especially if Ohio State and/or Oregon fade, we need Notre Dame to rise. Root for: Notre Dame.

4:30pm MDT: UCLA at Arizona: Rooting against UCLA is rarely a bad idea, but there’s a special reason to like the Wildcats here. If Arizona wins out — after this game, U of A hosts Wazzu in two weeks, then visits Cal, hosts Oregon, and visits ASU — their December 5 game at USC will be an effective Pac-10 championship game: winner takes home the conference title. That’d be awesome, since it would give USC a marquee final-day matchup, a “championship game” to compete with the SEC, Big 12 and ACC tilts. Root for: Arizona.

5pm MDT: Iowa at Michigan State: This is the biggest game of the day for Trojan fans, other than USC-Oregon State at the Coliseum, of course. Iowa must lose, and the Spartans are the Hawkeyes’ last real obstacle prior to their November 14 date with Ohio State. The two games in between MSU and tOSU are home dates with Indiana and Northwestern. Then they visit the Horseshoe, before finishing with a home game against Minnesota. So this is big. With a second road win over a decent opponent, the disrespected Hawkeyes will pick up some votes in the polls, possibly leapfrogging TCU, Boise State and Cincinnati, and settling in just behind the Trojans, poised to leapfrog ‘SC with a win over Ohio State. With a loss, on the other hand, Iowa is out of the championship picture entirely, and we can safely ignore the Big Ten for the rest of the season, which is as it should be. Root for: Sparty.

5:30pm MDT: Florida at Mississippi State: Even with a loss, I think Florida stays ahead of USC in the pecking order, but a loss (especially to team that’s worse than Washington) is still better than a win, from a Trojan’s perspective Root for: Mississippi State.

5:30pm MDT: TCU at BYU: In some alternate universe, in which BYU didn’t lay an egg against Florida State, this would be a critical game for USC fans — critical in the sense that undefeated BYU, whose schedule (unlike TCU’s and Boise’s) can’t really be criticized, would be clearly ahead of USC in the pecking order, and we’d desperately need them to lose. But in this universe, one-loss BYU is out of the championship picture (albeit still harboring BCS at-large ambitions, if Boise State loses), while TCU is at least on the periphery of that picture. I don’t think undefeated TCU finishes ahead of one-loss USC in the BCS standings, but just to be safe, it’d be better for the Trojans if the Horned Frogs are out of the way. Root for: BYU.

5:30pm MDT: Auburn at LSU: A win by Auburn in the Battle of the Tigers would eliminate LSU from national championship contention, and prevent any chance of the aforementioned nightmare scenario. So, as much as I’d like to play LSU in the title game, I gotta be practical here. Root for: the Tigers… of Auburn.

6pm MDT: Texas at Missouri: The only reason I said Iowa-MSU is “the biggest game of the day” is because Texas has more subsequent realistic opportunities to lose. But, needless to say, it would be GREAT if Missouri could recover from its consecutive losses to Nebraska and OSU with a win over Texas. Root for: Mizzou.

6pm MDT: Oregon State at USC: You don’t need my help figuring this one out. FIGHT ON TROJANS, BEAT THE BEAVERS!!! Root for: USC.

9:05pm MDT: Boise State at Hawaii: As with TCU, I don’t think Boise poses a serious threat to the Trojans (whether that’s fair or not is a separate question), but it’d be safer and cleaner if they lose. Root for: Hawaii.