In an article I linked to earlier, ESPN’s Ted Miller wonders whether Saturday’s USC-Oregon clash will be “the sort of contest where two teams play so impressively that even the loser becomes a top candidate for an at-large BCS bowl berth.”
Miller is really asking the wrong question. BCS at-large berths aren’t determined by one team’s “impressive” losing performance in late October. They’re determined by the number of spots available, the competition for those spots, and the (mostly) non-football credentials of the competitors — things like fan-base sizes, national profiles, likely TV ratings, ticket and merchandise sales, etc.
For that very reason, it is clearly better for the Pac-10’s multi-team BCS hopes if Oregon wins on Saturday, because USC at 10-2 would be a far more attractive at-large candidate than Oregon at 10-2. In fact, in a competition for the two at-large spots that will be available after Boise or TCU gobbles up a berth, and the SEC runner-up gobbles up another, there are exactly three teams that I think would be likely to beat out USC:
• 10-2 Notre Dame. Yes, they’ll be in the Top 14 if they win out, and the Irish are every bowl’s dream.
• 11-1 Penn State. If the Nittany Lions can handle Ohio State, Sparty and the rest of their schedule, they’ll be virtually guaranteed an at-large spot. (They won’t win the Big Ten unless Iowa loses twice, which is exceedingly unlikely given the Hawkeyes’ remaining schedule.)
• 11-1 Texas. If the Longhorns lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday, then proceed to win out, but don’t make the Big 12 title game because Okie State also wins out, Texas would be an extremely attractive candidate for a BCS at-large.
Beyond that trio, it’s pretty slim pickens.
There’s the potential of an undefeated TCU or Boise to still be in the running, of course — whichever one doesn’t get the automatic at-large — but, no matter how deserving they are, bowls are likely to run screaming in the other direction. But if not the Frogs or Broncos, then who?
Ohio State can’t get an at-large at 10-2, because if they’re 10-2, they’ll be Big Ten champs. Iowa at 11-1, with a loss to the Buckeyes in its second-to-last game after a generally disrespected season of near-misses, is an okay option, but by no means the lock that Penn State or Texas at 11-1 would be.
Virginia Tech at 10-2, assuming Georgia Tech doesn’t stumble, is a decent option, but not great. Miami at 10-2? Perhaps the best option this side of USC and the ND/Texas/JoePa trio, depending on how the rest of their season goes, but I think the Trojans are more likely to get a bid than the ‘Canes.
[UPDATE/CORRECTION: Having pondered this overnight, I think I’m too high on Miami, and too down on Iowa, in the above paragraphs. I was thinking the Hurricanes are an attractive choice because of their bankable young star, Jacory Harris, and their “return to glory” storyline. But I wasn’t thinking about location. Fans from an cold Midwestern locale, like Iowa, are much more like to travel en masse to, say, Glendale or New Orleans than are fans in already-toasty Miami. That’s largely why Big Ten teams have had so much success in earning at-large bids: their fans travel. For that reason, combined with the fact that Iowa would only have one loss to Miami’s two, I think the Hawkeyes at 11-1 are a more attractive choice, notwithstanding their unexciting style and general lack of national respect, than the 10-2 Hurricanes, and maybe even than 10-2 USC.]
The Big East isn’t going to produce two at-larges, firstly because it’s the Big East, and secondly because its best two teams, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, play on Championship Saturday, so the non-champion will end its season on a loss.
As for the Big 12, it seems unlikely to get an at-large bid, barring the Texas scenario referenced above, unless perhaps Bradford-less Oklahoma can sneak into the Top 14 at 9-3. I don’t think Oklahoma State, which lacks a Texas- or Oklahoma-like national profile, has the horses to get a bid at 10-2.
And the SEC, even though IT’S A WAR!!!, can’t have two at-larges. Aw, shucks. 🙂
Bottom line? If the Pac-10 wants two BCS bids, it needs to root for Oregon and Texas on Saturday, and then root against Penn State and Notre Dame for the rest of the season.
UPDATE: Here’s an initial stab at a “BCS at-large pecking order.” Again, this is assuming either Boise State or TCU nabs one spot, and an SEC team (presumably the title-game loser, or possibly the SEC West runner-up) nabs the other, leaving 2 of the 10 spots (i.e., 2 of the 4 at-larges) still available.
I’m also assuming the Rose Bowl is not the one doing the choosing. They have a whole different set of criteria, which puts conference affiliation above all else (hence 9-3 Illinois getting the nod two years ago). For instance, if USC goes to the national title game, 10-2 Oregon would most certainly get invited to Pasadena, or Cal (or even Arizona?!) if the Ducks aren’t available but the Bears or Wildcats are. Likewise, if Iowa goes to the title game, Penn State is certainly Rose-Bowl bound, if eligible, regardless of whether they’re 11-1 or 10-2. Only if Penn State drops out of the Top 14, and neither 10-2 Wisconsin nor 9-3 Ohio State nor 9-3 Michigan are available, does the Rose Bowl pick a non-Big Ten team.
Anyway, here’s my pecking order. If a team can’t possibly be an at-large with a given record — like Ohio State at 10-2 — they’re not on the list. Likewise, if I don’t think a team would be in the Top 14 with a given record — for instance, Iowa at 10-2, with 2 losses in its final 4 games, including at least one at home to an inferior team (Indiana, Northwestern or Minnesota) — I haven’t included them. If I think their potential eligibility is borderline, or depends on precisely when they lose, I’ve specified “if eligible.”
1. Notre Dame (10-2)
2. Penn State (11-1)
3. Texas (11-1)
4. Iowa (11-1)
5. USC (10-2)
6. Penn State (10-2), if eligible
7. Miami (10-2)
8. Texas (12-1) (undefeated until loss in Big 12 title game)
9. Wisconsin (10-2) (I forgot about the Badgers before. They’re not in the Top 25 now, but they’re 5-2, and if they win out, I gotta believe they’ll finish in the Top 14, for the same reasons stated earlier about Notre Dame. And, like Iowa, they have the rabid northern fan base that would travel well, particularly after what would be an out-of-nowhere great season. Their remaining schedule is very manageable, too.)
10. Virginia Tech (10-2)
11. Oregon (10-2)
12. Oklahoma State (10-2 or 11-2)
13. Boise State or TCU (12-0) (whoever didn’t get the auto bid)
14. Cal (10-2) (they’d be on a 7-game winning streak)
15. Oklahoma (9-3), if eligible
16. Cincinnati (11-1)
17. Ohio State (9-3), if eligible
18. Georgia Tech (11-2) (loss in ACC title game)
I wonder: am I too down on Boise/TCU’s chances? Should they be a bit higher? Same question with Cincinnati. Am I being too cynical here, or just cynical enough? 🙂