My 15th annual FREE, “moneyless” Living Room Times basketball pools are underway: You can enter the Men’s NCAA Pool now (deadline: Thursday at noon Eastern Time) and also enter the NIT Pool now (deadline: Tuesday at 7pm EST). The Women’s NCAA Pool will start tomorrow evening. (Here is a brief pool history overview.)
Meanwhile, I’m extending my pool logo design contest thru Tuesday. I’ve received one good entry, but by delaying my decision and extending the deadline, I may be able to get some entries from Newington High design students, which should be fun. Anyway, click here for details on what I’m looking for.
P.S. Also coming tomorrow evening: mascot brackets!
[Bumped. -ed.]
i hope you do get some entries from the NHS design students — they are awesome!
Having joined in the near-universal criticism of next year’s proposed switch to a 96-team format, been rethinking that it might not be as bad as everyone fears. First, let’s say there are three reasons people like the tourney: memorable upsets, competing in an office pool, and dreaming of your favorite team’s road to the Final Four.
Comparing the current tourney and the 96 team tourney – the current tourney is better for memorable upsets, as has been discussed. How much better depends on how much you like those upsets. Either format should be about as good for an office pool. Which leaves the dreaming of your favorite team making it far in the tournament.
Using the current tournament, group the seeds as follows: 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, and 13-16. The 13-16 seeds should be slightly better off in a 96-team tournament, as they will win games somewhat more often than they currently do. The 9-12 seeds will be slightly worse off, as they will have to play an extra, losable game next year. The 1-4 seeds will definitely be worse off, as their Round-of-64 game goes from cupcake city to potentially-dangerous middling power conference team. And the 5-8 seeds should be helped, possibly significantly, in the 96-team tourney.
Consider Marquette, a 6-seed in the East. Like many 5-8 seeded teams from power conferences, Marquette was a couple close losses from being a Top-4 seed. They have to pretty much like their bracket, as their second-round opponent (New Mexico) is the only non-power conference top 4 seed, so by conventional wisdom, not very good. Then Marquette would likely get West Virginia in the Regional Semis, to whom Marquette lost by a point, on the road, in late December. After West Virginia it would likely be a regional final with Kentucky, which doesn’t bode well. Still, a deep run is a reasonable thing for Marquette fans to think about…
…but they have to beat 11-seed Washington first, the kind of game 6-seeds often lose as they dream of their regional final journey. Would it not enhance the enjoyment of a Marquette fan if 11-seeded Washington had to get by 22-seed Montana first? Washington probably wins that game – but its a roadblock for them that makes dreaming of a Marquette regional final run a little bit more fun.
For a similar example, consider 8-seeded Gonzaga in the West. Their #9 matchup (Florida State) almost certainly wins next year against their 24-seeded Vermont opponent….but next year 1-seed Syracuse would have to play someone like 16-seeded Mississippi State, who may just be almost as good as Syracuse right now. Having Mississippi State lurking in Syracuse’ sub-bracket makes it easier for Gonzaga to dream of a road to the regional final, as their 4-5 pair (Butler/Vanderbilt) is also arguably suspect.
In summary, the NCAA may want the fans of those 5-8 seeded teams to have more interest, since those are teams that often were almost great, and once in a while make some real noise, but without the attendant buzz. There might be lots more buzz in a 96-team tourney for those teams and their fans. Which could be a pretty good thing.
Upon further further review, I now believe the office pool becomes significantly more fun next year with 96 teams (more fun than it has been in the recent era of 2 to 4 1-seeds in the Final Four).
The problem with the 1-seed concentration in the Final Fours recently is that a person ends up picking against a 1-seed early at their great peril. Choosing Gonzaga to knock off Syracuse virtually pins your entire hopes on that game, even if you have Gonzaga losing in the sweet 16. This is because the high likelihood of Syracuse at least making the Elite Eight puts too many others in front of you if you dis the Orange too early. The tourney didn’t always used to be that way, but lately it seems like it has been.
Next year, that may change with 96 teams, and the Gonzaga pick may become significantly more attractive. Even if you get Gonzaga wrong in the round of 32, you have the bonus option of a Mississippi State-type team beating Syracuse in the round of 64, thus minimizing the risk of not putting Syracuse on an Elite Eight line. The upset-lovers have lamented the chaos that results from the highest seeds no longer having a cupcake opening round; that same chaos will also make the brackets more fun.
More fun, and also more accessible. One of the problems with the 1-seed final four era is that you pretty much end up pinning your hopes on a 3-seed (e.g. Villanova last year) being the one interloper to spoil the 1/2 seed party at the Final Four. But not all 3-seeds are created equal, which is where a novice is at a disadvantage in understanding that a 3-seeded Baylor/New Mexico is probably not the same as a 3-seeded Georgetown/Pittsburgh when it comes to reaching the Final Four.
With mass chaos, there is a much better opportunity for an outsider to put together a pretty good bracket, for about the same reasons that there is a better opportunity for a 5-8 seed to go far. These are both pluses in next year’s tournament.
Leaving only one minus: the loss of the romantic upsets. While I love Hampton over Iowa State as much as the next guy, I also recognize that the charm is a bit like William Hung’s audition for American Idol: its fun, and entertaining, and memorable…but it really has nothing to do with the outcome of the competition.
If a Hampton had ever so much as won a second round game, I might have felt differently. As it is, those games are basically just a lark. Bring on the 96-team field.