The 0Z GFS computer model shifts Irene’s landfall point to the east, again — from NYC/Long Island to Cape Cod. The rightward trend continues. This hurricane may yet stay out to sea, folks. By the way, I’m blogging at Pajamas Media’s “Weather Nerd” again, at least for the moment.
…I’ve just had no time to blog for the last week-and-a-half. My evening free time is largely taken up holding a baby, and, well, it’s hard to type while you’re doing that. But hey, at least nothing newsworthy/blogworthy has happened during that time, like, oh I don’t know: • Michelle Bachmann wins the Iowa Straw Poll; • Generic Republican drops… Read more »
Tropical Storm Dora has formed in the Eastern Pacific, south of Mexico, and is expected to become a major hurricane within the next three days. This has produced an amusing tweet exchange among those of us familiar with the storm’s Nickelodeon namesake (Loyacita’s favorite show in the universe by far): Andy Glockner: “Can you say dangerously high winds? Say it!… Read more »
UPDATE: Here’s a closer view this morning of Igor and Julia — simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, only the second time that’s happened in recorded history: From Dr. Jeff Masters: The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category… Read more »
As I tweeted yesterday, I’ve barely been paying any attention to Hurricane Igor, but he’s a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, and could potentially become the season’s first Category 5 before weakening begins due to increased shear. He could threaten Bermuda in 5-7 days, but does not appear likely to affect the U.S. beyond high surf. Igor is… Read more »
No longer a “MONSTER,” and leaving behind a trail of inconvenience rather than destruction, Hurricane Earl is now a weakening Category 1 storm traversing ever-colder waters en route to a second U.S. “sideswipe” tonight, landfall as a tropical storm in Canada, and then, extratropical oblivion. Here’s a look at both Earl and the trough of low pressure (i.e., cold front)… Read more »
Before I post the latest track forecast, it’s important to emphasize that Hurricane Earl is not a point on the map, but a broad storm system with a geographically large wind field. The exact course of the eye is important, especially for storm surge purposes, because the strongest winds and most damaging surge — especially when it reaches New England,… Read more »
It looks like Jim Cantore may have picked the wrong Cape. The official NHC forecast now calls for Hurricane Earl to pass closer to Cape Cod and the Islands than to Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks, thanks to a gradual leftward shift over the last several advisories, and most recently, an overnight lurch in the computer models: AFTER 48… Read more »
Hurricane Earl is back up to Category 4 intensity, with 135 mph winds. Not much change to the forecast reasoning — the worst weather is likely to remain offshore — but that right turn needs to begin soon (like, tonight). Watches and warnings now extend from Cape Fear, North Carolina all the way to almost the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border. Meanwhile,… Read more »
Did I speak too soon? The computer model forecast tracks for Hurricane Earl, which had been trending east (and away from a New England threat), trended ever-so-slightly back west overnight. That “crucial 40° N 70° W marker” I mentioned? It’s now in the crosshairs of the official NHC track and the model consensus. And get a load of the GFNI:… Read more »