To the extent there’s a broader lesson to be drawn from tonight’s results, Andrew Sullivan nails it, I think:
How easily we forget. We get caught up in the health insurance fight, we game the Beck-Palin subculture, we chatter about Israel and Iran, we obsess about marriage equality … while the voters who do not do politics for a living are simply trying to survive one of the worst downturns in history. The votes tonight are anti-incumbent votes in protest at economic crisis and the slow pace of recovery.
Bloomberg’s stunningly poor showing also fits into this analysis. Though there’s also, I think, a hint of anti-gazillionaire populism in the rejection of Corzine and near-rejection of Bloomberg. In this age of bailouts and Wall Street outrages, self-funded campaigners need to be careful. A shot across Mitt Romney’s bow, perhaps?
By the way, it’s looking good for the Democrat Owens in NY-23, but various conservative tweeters are reporting that Hoffman’s people are still expecting a late surge, based on their precinct-level data. Hard to know if that’s realistic, or if they’re deluding themselves. Politicians’ ability to stay in denial about the electoral chances, even as the facts contradict them, can be staggering. But who knows? It ain’t over till the fat governor-elect of New Jersey sings. 😛
(Gay marriage is Maine is also too close to call, BTW.)
P.S. Marc Ambinder:
The Republican wins in New Jersey and Virginia and the close race in New York City tells us…
…self-financers, people affiliated with Big Wall Street, the Old Money Crowd, the establishment, the party leadership… are being put on notice. Not a Democratic or Republican thing…but a gun, fired by the political regulars — not the newer Obama turnout cohort but the regular off-year cohort — at the heart of those who protect those in power, at bailouts, at spending.
Also: very easy alternate explanation: the economy sucks. States are really hurting. Governors are very unpopular. Their support is going to crater.
