The A.D.D. Right

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Nate Silver, in a post asking how Democrats regained the momentum on health care, makes an interesting observation:

[T]he tea party/town hall movement that dominated the headlines in August is at this stage somewhat immature, with a lot of sound and fury but not so much focus — sort of where liberals were at in 2002/03 before the failures of the Bush administration became more manifest. Whereas liberal activists have been focused on a laser like the public option, conservative activists have been distracted by ACORN, Van Jones, the NFL’s conspiracy against Rush Limbaugh, and who-knows-what. Usually it’s liberals who have amorphous, omnibus critiques of the government, and conservatives who bear down on specific policies; the polarity seems somewhat to have reversed.

Indeed. And so the question must be asked: conservatives, why do you hate America? 😛

Pondering BCS at-large candidates

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In an article I linked to earlier, ESPN’s Ted Miller wonders whether Saturday’s USC-Oregon clash will be “the sort of contest where two teams play so impressively that even the loser becomes a top candidate for an at-large BCS bowl berth.”

Miller is really asking the wrong question. BCS at-large berths aren’t determined by one team’s “impressive” losing performance in late October. They’re determined by the number of spots available, the competition for those spots, and the (mostly) non-football credentials of the competitors — things like fan-base sizes, national profiles, likely TV ratings, ticket and merchandise sales, etc.

For that very reason, it is clearly better for the Pac-10’s multi-team BCS hopes if Oregon wins on Saturday, because USC at 10-2 would be a far more attractive at-large candidate than Oregon at 10-2. In fact, in a competition for the two at-large spots that will be available after Boise or TCU gobbles up a berth, and the SEC runner-up gobbles up another, there are exactly three teams that I think would be likely to beat out USC:

• 10-2 Notre Dame. Yes, they’ll be in the Top 14 if they win out, and the Irish are every bowl’s dream.

• 11-1 Penn State. If the Nittany Lions can handle Ohio State, Sparty and the rest of their schedule, they’ll be virtually guaranteed an at-large spot. (They won’t win the Big Ten unless Iowa loses twice, which is exceedingly unlikely given the Hawkeyes’ remaining schedule.)

• 11-1 Texas. If the Longhorns lose to Oklahoma State on Saturday, then proceed to win out, but don’t make the Big 12 title game because Okie State also wins out, Texas would be an extremely attractive candidate for a BCS at-large.

Beyond that trio, it’s pretty slim pickens.

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