Will ESPN College GameDay visit Stillwater or Eugene next week? #4 USC @ #10 Oregon, or #3 Texas @ #13 Oklahoma State? (or thereabouts)
Well, USC held off Oregon State, 42-36. The Trojans are now 6-1 heading into a Top 10 showdown with Oregon next week. That’s the good news.
The bad news? First of all, USC’s defense has apparently vanished. Perhaps it’s floating in a balloon somewhere, or hiding in an attic. But one week after allowing ND’s Jimmy Clausen to go 24-of-43 for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, the Trojans allowed OSU’s Sean Canfield (who?!) to go 30-of-43 for 329 yards and 3 touchdowns! Total yards surrendered by USC the last two weeks combined: 849. WTF? At this rate, Oregon may hang 70 points on us next week!
The even worse news? Iowa survived Michigan State, winning on a 4th-and-goal touchdown as time expired. Texas routed Missouri. Cincinnati rolled over Louisville. Alabama and Florida both survived scares.
All of which means the BCS pecking order is unchanged. The Trojans are still stuck behind the SEC champion (undefeated or one-loss), Texas, and — regardless of what the present rankings say — Iowa and probably Cincinnati (though a USC-Cincy debate would be interesting). Because the SEC is now very unlikely to produce a two-loss champion, we need the Longhorns, Hawkeyes and Bearcats to lose. So far, it’s not happening.
The one BCS bright spot: Miami, which I had at #9 in the pecking order, lost to Clemson. So that’s one less team the Trojans need to worry about nipping at their heels in the rankings, if they win out. The only real threats from “below” — i.e., aside from the SEC champ, undefeated Texas, undefeated Iowa and undefeated Cincinnati — are a one-loss Big 12 champ (Texas or Okie State) and a one-loss, SEC West runner-up Alabama (the all-SEC nightmare scenario). I think USC gets in ahead of those teams, but I’m not sure. By contrast, I just can’t see TCU, Boise State, Georgia Tech or the SEC title-game loser threatening USC’s standing in the BCS.
Unfortunately, barring a last-minute SEC cataclysm, none of that matters unless the Hawkeyes, Longhorns and Bearcats all lose. And in Iowa’s case, they’re running out of opportunities to lose. Somehow, I don’t think home games against Indiana and Northwestern the next two weeks will pose much of a challenge. That leaves the trip Ohio State on November 14, followed by the season-finale rivalry game against Minnesota at home on November 21. It may all come down to Hawkeyes-Buckeyes. Meanwhile, next week’s Texas at Oklahoma State game is now huge, absolutely huge.
After the jump, remaining schedules for the three teams USC fans need to root against, plus a fully updated pecking order, sans commentary.
I just realized: Clemson’s win over Miami is great news for TCU. Tigers now control the ACC Coastal Division. Frogs beat them at Clemson.
First things first: Charlie Weis is a complete and utter moron. His inexplicable and indefensible decision to go for it on 4th-and-goal, instead of taking the chip-shot field goal to tie the game with 11 minutes left, was the last straw. It convinced me, once and for all, that Charlie Choo-Choo should be fired. Enough is enough. (And yes, I criticized the decision before it failed. It would have been a dumbass move even if it had worked.)
It was classic Weis — mistaking stupidity for ballsiness, putting too much reliance on his alleged tactical brilliance, failing to understand the limitations of his personnel — and it could easily have cost the Irish the game. Luckily, Golden Tate & co. bailed Weis out on the next drive:
Alas, despite Tate’s brilliance, and despite the relief of finally beating Fredo, Notre Dame was by no means impressive in its 20-16 win over Boston College. It’s one thing to make USC freshman Matt Barkley look like a Heisman Trophy candidate; it’s another to make BC freshman Dave Shinskie look that way (well, until he started throwing interceptions late).
And yet, despite looking like crap, despite another too-close win over an inferior opponent, Notre Dame will be ranked next week.
Why? No, not because of bias, Irish-haters. Because of simple attrition. Four teams from last week’s AP poll — #8 Miami, #16 BYU, #21 Texas Tech and #24 Kansas — all lost this week. So did three of the teams who, like Notre Dame, received double-digit numbers in the “others receiving votes” category last week. #26 and #27 Notre Dame and Ole Miss won, but #28 South Florida, #29 Nebraska, and #30 Michigan all lost.
I expect the Irish to be ranked either #22 or #23, depending on how far Miami falls. Because the Hurricanes’ loss was a close one, and because current #25 Oklahoma should serve as a “floor” because the ‘Canes beat the Sooners, I’m betting Miami will stay just ahead of ND, so the Irish will be #23 in the AP poll.
The coaches’ poll is the same basic deal, though the Irish might be #24 or #25 there, behind Ole Miss and perhaps Central Michigan or somebody like that. The Irish should likewise be ranked in the #23-25 range in the Harris poll. I won’t hazard a guess as to whether they’ll be in the BCS, because I don’t want to analyze the various computer rankings. But ND will certainly be in that Top 25 soon, if not this week, provided they keep winning.
In any case, my full AP poll prediction is after the jump.
I really, really, really hate Sparty.
Iowa wins, 15-13… ugh. Hawkeyes are 8-0. Three of last 4 games are at home: http://bit.ly/ypu5C. At Ohio State only likely challenge left.
4th and goal, 2 seconds left, per ESPN GameCast. (Can’t actually watch. Stupid Big Ten Network.)
Hawkeyes have 3rd and goal from the 7 yard line with 5 seconds left. HOLD ‘EM, SPARTY!!!
Michigan State leads Iowa 13-9 with 1:37 left!!! GO SPARTY!! Help USC and Save America from Big Ten BCS Title Game Horror!
USC 21, Oregon State 9 at the half. Three touchdowns for Trojans; three field goals for Beavers.