The Living Room Times

[UPDATE, 11:00 PM MDT: Welcome, InstaPundit readers! I have (finally) posted a new update, covering both Ana and Bill.]

Mark it down: on August 15, two-and-a-half months into the Atlantic hurricane season, we finally have our first named storm. Tropical Storm Ana formed overnight.

It was our original “proto-Ana,” the one further west, that ultimately won the “race” and earned the name, beating out the newfangled “proto-Ana” (now “proto-Bill”) to the east. Tropical Depression 2 became Ana exactly 24 48 hours after dissipating, having unexpectedly regenerated yesterday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, the eastern storm appears to be imminently becoming a depression, and will probably be designated T.D. 3 later this morning, and maybe T.S. Bill after that. But Ana is the center of attention for now.

The five-day forecast for T.S. Ana looks ominous for Florida, track-wise at least. The intensity is presently forecast to stay relatively low, never quite exceeding tropical storm strength, but the NHC admits this is a conservative, and somewhat low-confidence, forecast. FLhurricane.com summarizes: “Some models weaken it (like the GFDL)… But others, such as the HWRF show in becoming a category 2 hurricane. … The relatively small size of the storm will make it very difficult to predict the intensity of the storm, in fact the National Hurricane Center in the discussion has indicated that their current forecast is very uncertain intensity wise and may be on the conservative side.”

The intensity uncertainty also creates some doubts about the track forecast beyond three days, since a weaker Ana would likely go more west, while a stronger one would probably go more north: “Thus the National Hurricane Center’s forecast, at least for 3 days seems good. Beyond that it really could be anywhere in the cone.” Alan Sullivan elaborates: “Will Ana trek over Hispaniola and Cuba, as so many hurricanes have done in recent years, weakening over land, but unleashing floods of rain? Or will it stay north of the mountainous islands, intensify further, and hit Florida? Ana is unlikely to recurve and remain an ocean storm. It means to hit something.”

Tropical Depression Two, our erstwhile “proto-Ana,” is dead (or at least dormant; regeneration remains possible), and Tropical Depression Three — the new “proto-Ana” hotness — has yet to be born. For now, Three-to-Be is just “Invest 90L,” a mere tropical wave. But the National Hurricane Center thinks that will change soon:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE…GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Alan Sullivan writes: “Models continue to make a major Atlantic hurricane of this system and direct it along a course that could threaten the NE Caribbean first, then the Bahamas and the East Coast. We shall see.” Indeed we shall. For now, as I said yesterday, such early projections are about as reliable as preseason predictions of a Florida-Texas BCS title game.

FLHurricane.com has more, as does Dr. Jeff Masters.

P.S. For those keeping score at home, the first named storm of the 1992 hurricane season — infamous Andrew — earned its name on August 17. To find a later “A” storm formation date, you have to go back to 1984, when Tropical Storm Arthur formed on August 29. But it looks likely that 2009 will probably sneak in under 1992’s wire. Today is Friday, August 14. If we don’t have an “Ana” by Monday, I’ll be pretty surprised.